This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Michael Pineda, NYY vs. BAL ($7,800): A 9.5 over/under is high when targeting pitching, but with every game on the main slate having an over/under of eight or more the focus goes from safe scenarios to potential upside. With a K-rate of 27.2 percent, Pineda brings the upside. The sabermetrics love him as his xFIP sits at 3.25 and SIERA at 3.32, but it's not simply bad luck that the ERA sits over two points higher at 5.56 (but, probably a little bit of bad luck for that dramatic of a deviation). He's walking twice the number of batters he was last year (6.2 percent BB-rate) and giving up 1.61 HR/9. Whether the control is a serious issue is a bit unclear, but the HRs definitely are. Pineda's four-seam fastball has been getting absolutely roasted this season – currently 17.3 points below average on the season according to Fangraphs PITCHf/x Pitch Values. The money pitch, the slider, racks up the Ks and the last 14 days have yielded a poor 86 wRC+ for the Orioles – Pineda just needs to locate his fastball and hopefully avoid the long ball.
David Ortiz, BOS vs. SF ($4,100): At home against righties this season, Ortiz has a wRC+ of 253. There's no context where that isn't absolutely spectacular.
Dustin Pedroia, BOS vs. SF ($3,400): Matt Cain and Pedroia both have inverse splits this season where Cain has allowed an inflated 5.12 xFIP and 1.64 HR/9 against righties while Pedroia has a wRC+ that's 30 points higher against righties (119) than lefties (89). The Red Sox clearly have the highest expected total on the night being -210 favorites in a 10.5 over/under game at the time of this article being written.
Yunel Escobar, LAA vs. TEX ($3,400): Escobar has hit southpaws to the tune of a 169 wRC+ this season. Martin Perez possesses a xFIP of 5.03 against righties. The leadoff spot maximizes his potential at-bats, as well.
Didi Gregorius, NYY vs. BAL ($2,800): Looking at the entire season, the Yankees offensive has been poor, but their shortstop's trend line is pointing way up. In April, Gregorius had a wRC+ of 54. In May, 89. In June, 141. Thus far in July, he's got a superb 171 wRC+ with a .288 ISO. Opposing pitcher Yovani Gallardo has been poor on the season against lefties, as he's allowed a 6.28 xFIP and 2.18 HR/9.
Randal Grichuk, STL vs. SD ($2,800): After last night's (June 19) game was postponed, the Cardinals and Padres will be playing a doubleheader Wednesday. This creates an interesting scenario when playing the main slate, as the length and managerial decisions of the first game could lead to a more unpredictable lineup that may not be released in time for lock (and with FanDuel's lack of late swap, that's a massive issue). In limited action, opposition pitcher Paul Clemens has been poor with a 6.53 xFIP with his career number still poor at 5.26. Grichuk should, though Mike Matheny can be hard to predict, sit atop the order and owns a strong 120 wRC+ and .270 ISO against righties this season. As lineup lock approaches, if a Cardinals lineup has not been released, you are left with a scenario where you must weigh the risk of guessing whether certain players will start – something probably not worth trying in cash games, but could give you some under-owned plays in tournaments.
Ryan Rua, TEX at LAA ($3,200): On the roster for his ability to hit lefties, Rua has held up his side of the platoon with a wRC+ of 142 against southpaws on the season. Hector Santiago has allowed a 5.12 xFIP and 1.68 HR/9 against right-handed bats on the season.
Brett Gardner, NYY vs. BAL ($3,500): There are many exploitable pitchers on the slate, but the worst of the worst is undoubtedly Gallardo and the Yankees' lefty-heavy lineup will be able to take advantage of the 6.28 xFIP he's allowed against batters from that side of the plate. He's far from elite, but Gardner possesses a solid enough 108 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.