Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

It's common during this time of year for scouts, reporters, pundits, aficionados and social media enthusiasts alike to update their prospect rankings. For whatever reason, we're obsessed with rankings in all walks of life. The important advice for the prospect realm is not to overreact to small sample sizes or even one down year from a previously highly touted phenom.

Look at the case of MacKenzie Gore of the Padres. About two years ago, he was considered baseball's top pitching prospect after being selected No. 3 overall in 2017. Gore struggled last year with minor injuries along with mechanics, and suddenly he was an afterthought and plummeted down many beloved "rankings" lists.

Then the Padres suddenly needed a starter at the highest level, and they turned to Gore. What happened? The southpaw has been nothing short of dominant having posted a 1.50 ERA and 57:17 K:BB in 48 innings. Gore has all but forced San Diego to leave him in the rotation despite having other options.

The moral of the story? Don't let one bad stretch or one subpar season alter your view on a prospect. That also goes for success. Baseball can sometimes be a humbling game. Trust your instincts and let the rankings serve as a supplement to your research, instead of gospel.

Let's take a look at some neophytes in the news in this edition of the Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Esteury Ruiz, OF, SD – Ruiz continues to shine in his breakout season in the Padres organization.  Repeating Double-A, where he experienced a decent 2021, he's turned on the jets by swiping a staggering 37 bases in only 49 games. Ruiz has proven to be no one-trick pony as he's also produced nine home runs, 17 doubles and two triples while slashing a robust .344/.474/.611.  Despite not being on the 40-man roster yet, the struggles of Trent Grisham could lead the San Diego brass to consider promoting Ruiz to operate as a sparkplug.

Simeon Woods Richardson, P, MIN – It's easy to forget Woods Richardson is still just 21 as he's already on his third organization, and struggled last season posting a bloated 5.91 ERA. Finally with some stability, he's excelling at Double-A with a 3.00 ERA and 50:17 K:BB over 10 starts. Keeping walks down has been of particular importance for Woods Richardson in 2022. Fellow rotation mate Matt Canterino and he look to be future Twins starters, perhaps as early as next season.

Zack Gelof, SS/3B, OAK – A polished collegian from the University of Virginia, Gelof was selected in the second round of the 2021 Draft and has barely missed a beat. Already seeing everyday at-bats at Double-A, he's slashing .315/.372/.458 with four homers, 26 RBI and eight steals across 39 games. The scary part for the opposition is that Gelof's raw power hasn't yet translated into home run production. Once that happens, he could get bumped up to Triple-A, and perhaps beyond.  With Matt Chapman no longer covering the hot corner for the Athletics, the path is rather clear for Gelof and will likely be his landing spot when all is said and done.

Logan O'Hoppe, C, PHI – The Phils have endured a dismal season at the big league level, culminating in the firing of manager Joe Girardi. The blame cannot be fully placed on Girardi, as the front office has largely tried splashy and/or veteran signings instead of building through the farm system. For example, they just inked J.T. Realmuto to a five-year contract this offseason, but he's already over 30 and both his average and power numbers continue to trend down. O'Hoppe gives Philly some hope at an eventual successful transition with the Long Island product batting .301/.414/.583 with 11 home runs, 32 RBI and four steals in 44 games at Double-A. His plate discipline has been extremely impressive with nearly as many walks (22) as strikeouts (29). This has been a key focus of O'Hoppe over the last couple of years, and an argument can be made he's currently the organization's best hitting prospect.

CHECK STATUS

Mike Burrows, P, PIT –  Burrows continues to get plenty of swings and misses with his curveball, but his fastball velocity has also improved and he's even developed a feel for a changeup.  Opposing batters are hitting just .193 against him through 45.2 innings, and that represents a step down from 2021 when that number was .143. Of course, Burrows has yet to pitch 50 innings in a single season and missed two months last year with an oblique issue, so all statistics must be taken with a grain of salt. That being said, he offers strikeout stuff at the upper levels of the minors in an organization starving for pitching talent.

Blaze Alexander, SS, AZ – Alexander is having a resurgent season on the farm for Arizona. After batting only .218 at High-A in 2021, he was given the aggressive assignment to Double-A and has not disappointed slashing .303/.391/.538 with seven home runs, 18 RBI and eight steals.  Alexander has been particularly hot of late, hitting .444 with two homers and three swipes in the last week. He still strikes out a bit too much (41 Ks so far), but his power/speed combination remains intriguing and he clearly is making harder and more consistent contact this year.  Alexander will turn 23 this week, though he may be playing his way into the Diamondbacks' future plans.

Noelvi Marte, SS, SEA – Marte has had a rather nondescript season at High-A slashing .249/.343/.389 with five home runs and five steals over 46 games. His average is the lowest it's been since entering the minors, though his power numbers have not seen a jump. Perhaps the Julio Rodriguez comparisons are unfair, but Marte's raw power was still considered his calling card and that hasn't really been the case so far in 2022. He's not necessarily having a poor season; more that his statistics don't jump off the page as one would expect from a top prospect.

Hayden Wesneski, P, NYY – Wesneski was bombed in his last start at Triple-A allowing seven runs in just 1.2 innings. Before that, the 24-year-old hurler had been lights out posting a 2.23 ERA to go with 45:13 K:BB in 44.1 innings. Wesneski advanced from High-A all the way to Triple-A last season and has a deceptive delivery, improved fastball velocity and dangerous slider. The opposition is hitting just .183 against him even after that poor outing where he looked uncharacteristically wild.  Deivi Garcia is scuffling and Luis Gil required Tommy John surgery, so Wesneski suddenly finds himself closer to the big leagues than ever before if the Yankees need an extra arm at some point this season.

DOWNGRADE

Grayson Rodriguez, P, BAL – The big league debut of arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball may have to wait until next season as Rodriguez was forced to leave his last start and has since been diagnosed with a Grade 2 lat strain where he could miss the remainder of the 2022 campaign. While the Baltimore organization was likely in no rush to promote himanyway, the 22-year-old righty had little left to prove in the minors prior to the injury producing a 2.09 ERA and 80:14 K:BB in only 56 innings at Triple-A with opposing batters hitting .168 against. While an outside chance remains of a September return, the better bet is that Rodriguez pitches in the Arizona Fall League with an eye towards competing for a rotation slot with the Orioles next year.

Brennen Davis, OF, CHC – Davis is another highly touted phenom who is likely lost for the rest of 2022. He had been dealing with back issues since spring training, and ultimately the decision was made to undergo surgery to remedy the problem. Davis is expected to make a full recovery, but the Cubs would be wise not to hurry the recuperation time as they're currently nine games under .500. As a result, his premiere will also likely have to wait until 2023.

Nick Yorke, 2B, BOS – Yorke has been sidelined for more than a week after suffering turf toe.  While the injury isn't considered serious and he should shortly rejoin the club at High-A, it does highlight the fact it's been a difficult season for him. Yorke could do no wrong last year slashing a combined .325/.412/.516 with 14 home runs, 62 RBI and 13 steals in 97 games, mostly at Low-A.  He also logged 21 games at High-A and barely missed a beat. This season has been more of a slog for Yorke as he's batting .245/.319/.361 through 34 games and has been hitting far more ground balls. The sample size is small and he's only 20, so there's plenty of time to right the ship.

Seth Johnson, P, TB – A converted shortstop, Johnson has significantly improved since making the full-time switch to the mound having posted a 2.88 ERA with 115 strikeouts and 33 walks in 93.2 innings at Low-A last season. He was well on his way to another standout campaign in 2022 notching a 3.00 ERA and 41:11 K:BB over 27 innings at High-A, but the injury bug has hit and he was recently placed on the Injured List with forearm inflammation. Though initial diagnostic testing showed no structural damage to Johnson's pitching arm, these types of injuries can be a red flag. Here's hoping it turns out to be minor and he gets back on the mound soon, though expect the Rays to exercise caution with him even if that does turn out to be the case.