MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, July 9
2025 Betting Record: 18-20-1 (-3.93 units)
2025 Player Props Betting Record: 13-9 (+2.85 units)
I'm honed in on an evening matchup in each circuit Wednesday night, and I have drastically different offensive expectations for each that help inform all four bets I'll be recommending.
Cash in on the best sportsbook promos available at the best MLB betting sites this baseball season. The BetMGM bonus code gets new players one of the best welcome bonuses in the industry.
Best MLB Bets Today
MLB Picks for Pirates at Royals
- Under 4.5 runs - F5 (-114 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Kris Bubic Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-155 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
This interleague battle of two talented left-handers has a relatively elevated total of 8.5 runs at multiple sportsbooks, but I'm not entirely sold on that prognosis. A significant component of that projection is likely the perceived vulnerability of Pirates starter Bailey Falter, who's been more hittable outside of PNC Park and is coming off a road start against the Mariners on July 4 where he surrendered a trio of homers.
However, that can arguably be considered an outlier, considering Falter had pitched to an 0.9 HR/9 over his first 17 starts of the campaign. He also has allowed more than three earned runs just once since the beginning of May, and Wednesday, he's facing a Royals team that has a .232 average, .288 OBP, .275 wOBA and -4.9 wRAA versus southpaws at home since June 1. KC is also averaging an MLB-low 1.61 runs per first five innings per home game.
On the other side, Royals starter Kris Bubic carries a 7-6 record that isn't exactly indicative of how well he's pitched overall. The 27-year-old lefty has a 2.36 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, .227 xBA and .284 xwOBA, which offers a more complete picture of how effective he's been. Bubic has pitched to some contact on occasion, but he's still allowing well under a hit per inning (86 across 103.1 frames) and is facing a Pirates team that sports a .193 average, .588 OPS and .260 wOBA against left-handers on the road since June 1.
The fact Bubic has held current Pirates bats to a collective .182/.182/.227 slash line in 22 career plate appearances is a nice added bonus, as is Pittsburgh averaging the second-fewest runs per first five innings per road game (1.52).
Check out Caesars Sportsbook this MLB season and use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code for one of the top MLB betting promos.
MLB Picks for Rangers at Angels
- Over 9 Runs (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
The projected total for this Kumar Rocker-Kyle Hendricks matchup at hitter-friendly Angel Stadium is as high as 9.5 runs in some sportsbooks, so there are certainly some fireworks expected. The fact we can get that total at 9 with a decent price on BetMGM is a bonus, and there's a case to be made for cashing that ticket fairly comfortably when breaking things down further.
Granted, Rocker has been much steadier during his last four starts after pitching to an 8.87 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in his first six trips to the mound this season. The talented right-hander owns a 2-0 record and 2.49 ERA over the former span, but he's facing an Angels squad that has a .341 OBP, .788 OPS, .343 wOBA and 11.1 wRAA against righties at home since June 1, a stretch where 39 (18 doubles, 21 homers) of their 100 hits have gone for extra bases.
Rocker also carries a .518 xSLG and .378 xwOBA into Wednesday's start, and the career-high 11.9% barrel rate he's surrendering represents a full 9.0% jump from his 2024 rookie-season figure.
Hendricks has had plenty of issues in his own right, as he's already allowed 15 homers on his way to an elevated 1.5 HR/9. He's held his own when toeing the rubber at Angel Stadium (3.94 ERA), but he still has a 1.27 WHIP and 1.4 HR/9 in his home park. Additionally, he's had a heap of trouble with current Rangers bats, allowing a collective .300 average and .949 OPS to them across 43 career encounters.
Both bullpens are also currently scuffling, as Rangers relievers have surrendered a .268 average, .342 OBP and 4.58 xFIP in July, while the Angels' pen has pitched to a 5.08 ERA, .263 BAA, .807 OPS and .343 wOBA in that same span.
And, with Rocker allowing a .396 average and .479 wOBA to left-handed hitters on the road, Schanuel, who has a .350 wOBA against right-handed pitching, is in a good spot to contribute some offense.
Check out on one of the top sports betting apps when you sign up with the bet365 bonus code for your baseball betting.
MLB Picks Recap
- Pirates-Royals Under 4.5 runs - F5 (-114 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Kris Bubic Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-155 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Rangers-Angels Over 9 Runs (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
