This is my first article since the break, and I'm thrilled to be back in action. It felt much longer than a week off, but that's always the case given MLB's relentless schedule. What's remarkable is that we still have a sprint to the finish line, as most teams have about 50 games remaining. Every game is critical from here on out. We have a rare occurrence for this Monday card because every team is in action. That leaves us with a ton of options, so let's get started with the arms!
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Pitching
Shane Baz, TB vs. CWS ($9,000)
Baz was one of the top prospects in baseball before some injuries, and he's showcasing why in a terrific season for Tampa. The righty has allowed three runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts, posting a 3.25 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 8.7 K/9 rate in that span. He's also scored at least 27 DK points in three of his last five outings, showcasing an elite upside from a player in this price range. A home matchup with the White Sox is simply a bonus because Chicago sits bottom three in runs scored, OBP, OPS and xwOBA since last season. That's why Baz enters this matchup as a -220 favorite!
Jacob Lopez, ATH at TEX ($6,800)
This is a risky choice, but Lopez is simply too cheap. What makes him such a sexy option from a DFS standpoint is his strikeout stuff. The lefty has a 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 11.7 K/9 rate across his last eight starts. That's the production you'd expect to see from a $9K player, and it's not like Lopez has a challenging matchup. He tussles with Texas, with the Rangers ranked 25th in wOBA, 26th in OBP, 24th in runs scored and 27th in OPS.
Top Targets
Eugenio Suarez, ARI (vs. Colton Gordon) $5,200
There's a ton of talk about Suarez getting traded, but it'll be tough for Arizona to move him given how hot he is right now. The third baseman has six dingers over his last five fixtures, posting a .600 OBP and 2.288 OPS in that span. That's not a surprise since he has 35 homers this year, and we definitely don't want to fade him against a struggling southpaw. Geno has the platoon advantage against Gordon, who has a 7.15 ERA and 1.85 WHIP across his last three starts.
Matt Olson, ATL (vs. Hayden Birdsong) $5,000
Much like Suarez, Olson has been mashing for years, totaling a .356 OBP, .513 SLG and .869 OPS since 2021. This slugger got off to a slow start this season, but he's starting to turn things around. Olson has a .290 AVG, .364 OBP and .842 OPS across his last 17 outings. He also has a .377 OBP and .903 OPS against righties over the last three years and faces one here who has a 6.51 ERA and 1.66 WHIP across his last six starts.
Bargain Bats
Vinnie Pasquantino, KC (vs. Ryan Brasier) $3,700
Vinnie P has quietly had a bounce-back campaign in KC, compiling a .310 AVG and .835 OPS across his last 66 games. That alone is an amazing average from a sub-$4K player, but we've seen this guy post some of the league's best hard-hit metrics since his call-up four years ago. That's why he's in the heart of the Royals' lineup every day, posting a .788 OPS against righties during that span. It looks like a bullpen game for the Cubs, and that's something that never worries us from a DFS standpoint.
Ezequiel Tovar, COL (vs. Michael McGreevy) $3,400
Tovar missed most of the season due to an oblique issue, but people forget just how good this guy can be. The shortstop had 26 DraftKings points in his most recent game on Sunday, sporting a .272 AVG and .747 OPS this season. That's right on par with the .269 AVG and .764 OPS he had last year. You can't ask for any more from such an affordable player, and it looks even better since Tovar has a .429 AVG and 1.136 OPS at home this year. The matchup with McGreevy is solid as well, and we'll dive into that in the next section.
Stacks to Consider
Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals (McGreevy): Hunter Goodman ($5,000), Tyler Freeman ($4,700), Ryan McMahon ($3,900), Tovar ($3,400)
The Rockies have been the worst team in baseball this season, but they always have the potential to deliver some production at Coors Field. That's been the most hitter-friendly environment since its inception, with Colorado projected to score five runs in this game. That's a high total with so many affordable players, but it's no surprise since McGreevy has a 5.74 ERA across his last three starts. He's also only made four starts at this level after posting a 4.08 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in the minors.
Goodman has been a bright spot for the Rockies this year, leading them with 8.2 DraftKings points per game. He also has a .303 AVG and 1.030 OPS since June 2. As for Freeman, he's been hitting leadoff for the Rockies, registering a .438 OBP and .927 OPS across his last 39 outings. McMahon should be in his usual spot in the heart of the lineup, providing a .362 OBP and .849 OPS at home this year.
St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies (Austin Gomber): Ivan Herrera ($5,500), Willson Contreras ($4,900), Nolan Arenado ($4,500)
If we're going to stack this Coors Field game, we have to include the St. Louis side as well. They're actually the higher-projected team, forecasted to score six runs in this sensational spot. That's easy to understand when looking at Gomber's averages, as he's generated a 5.65 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. He also has a 6.13 ERA and 1.51 WHIP at home since 2022.
Those scary statistics make St. Louis the safest stack on this slate, with Herrera looking like the best option at a weak catcher position. Herrera has a .383 OBP and .889 OPS this year while posting a .466 OBP and 1.205 OPS against lefties. Contreras also has the platoon advantage against Gomber, collecting a .374 OBP and .888 OPS against lefties since 2022. Arenado is the final piece against the lefty, flirting with a .900 OPS when he faces southpaws in his former Coors Field home.
