MLB Picks Tonight: MLB Best Bets for Saturday, October 1

MLB Picks Tonight: MLB Best Bets for Saturday, October 1

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Picks Today: Expert MLB Bets for Saturday, October 1

RotoWire.com's Juan Carlos Blanco identifies his MLB bets and MLB player props to target on FanDuel Sportsbook today.

Last article: 1-3 (-2.58 RW Bucks)

Season Record: 95-90-4 (-5.69 RW Bucks)

I'm honing in on two key NL matchups Saturday night that feature three teams with plenty still at stake.

Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers

Edward Cabrera is dealing with a bit of an ankle strain but is slated to take the hill Saturday without any specific limitations. The rookie right-hander has turned in a solid first 13 starts at the big-league level overall, and he's been especially effective on the road with a 3-1 record, 1.62 ERA and 10.5 K/9 across 33.1 innings. The Brewers are fighting to vault into the third and final NL wild-card spot and are just a half-game behind the Phillies for it going into the day, but Milwaukee has been mostly harmless against visiting righties at home in the last month, recording a 26.5 percent strikeout rate, .213 batting average and .303 wOBA in that split.

Ashby's season stat line immediately jumps off the page, as he sports an ugly 2-10 record but a decent 4.50 ERA, an impressive 10.6 K/9 and an above-average 12.6 percent swinging strike rate. The southpaw has an even better 3.38 ERA and a solid 1.13 WHIP at home in 32 innings, and his .221 xBA, .303 xwOBA and 3.81 xERA all further speak to the fact he's pitched appreciably better than his ugly won-loss mark would imply. Ashby is in a very good spot to turn in one of his better performances as well, considering the Marlins sport an MLB-worst 30.4 percent strikeout rate, .175 average and .206 wOBA against lefties on the road in the second half of the season.

MLB Best Bets for Marlins at Brewers

  • Brewers moneyline and Under 7.5 runs (+175 at FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
  • Brewers -0.5 1st 5 innings (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1.25 RW Bucks

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves  

Max Scherzer is typically in elite form, but he's been especially impressive lately with a 1.13 ERA, 0.58 WHIP and 12.0 K/9 across 24 innings over his last four starts. The right-hander wasn't at his best the last time he saw the Braves, allowing four earned runs over 6.1 innings, but he still recorded eight strikeouts. However, he's been excellent in his two other encounters with Atlanta, conceding only one run over 14 innings while producing a 20:0 K:BB, with one of those starts coming at Truist Park.

Kyle Wright has delivered, and then some, on the potential he's always carried in what is now a 20-win season. The right-hander has been at his best at home, with a 12-2 record, 2.83 ERA and 9.2 K/9 in that split, but he's pitched to plenty of contact when facing the Mets on two prior occasions this season. New York has gotten to Wright for nine runs on 16 hits, including five homers, across 13 innings, a sample in which Wright has a 6.23 ERA and middling 4.8 K/9.

MLB Best Bets for Mets at Braves

  • Mets -0.5- 1st 5 innings (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
  • Mets moneyline (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1.15 RW Bucks
  • Max Scherzer Over 7.5 strikeouts thrown (+114 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck

MLB Best Bets Today Recap

  • Brewers moneyline and Under 7.5 runs (+175 at FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
  • Brewers -0.5- 1st 5 innings (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1.25 RW Bucks
  • Mets -0.5- 1st 5 innings (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
  • Mets moneyline (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1.15 RW Bucks
  • Max Scherzer Over 7.5 strikeouts thrown (+114 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck

Visit RotoWire all season long for exclusive sports betting picks from our group of handicappers with their expert MLB picks each day of the campaign. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds and available player props, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet.

RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only MLB Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire MLB fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
The Z Files: OK, I'm SOLD
The Z Files: OK, I'm SOLD
Collette Calls: Beltway Pitching Projects
Collette Calls: Beltway Pitching Projects
MLB Dynasty Rankings + 10 Rookies for 2023
MLB Dynasty Rankings + 10 Rookies for 2023
The Z Files: Projections and the New Rules
The Z Files: Projections and the New Rules
Aaron Judge Next Team Odds: Where Will Judge Sign?
Aaron Judge Next Team Odds: Where Will Judge Sign?
MLB World Series Game 6 Picks: MLB Best Bets for Saturday, November 5
MLB World Series Game 6 Picks: MLB Best Bets for Saturday, November 5