Pitching 3D: Grading the AL Central

Pitching 3D: Grading the AL Central

This article is part of our Pitching 3D series.

This wagon heads west to tackle an incredibly imbalanced division in terms of fantasy strength. Cleveland has the best rotation in the American League if not the majors; the White Sox have the prototype in place for an ideal rotation one through five, that is if everyone cooperates; the Tigers have a veteran trying to rekindle old magic and a precocious big-dollar acquisition trying to keep the tent posts stuck despite a harsh wind; the Royals are a struggle and the Twins are a joke. Given the fantasy relevance, some of these teams might be lacking in pitchers who are worth a write-up while others are five pitchers deep.

The same rules apply: Grades are based on first-half performance, relative to cost on draft day. Write-ups are focused on the pitcher's outlook for the second half. Stats are through June 30.

Chicago White Sox

Chris Sale

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
16 113 13 2.79 0.98 109

Sale's deliberate approach to trim strikeouts in lieu of a more efficient pitch count has worked, in a sense. The left-hander has thrown more than seven innings per start for the first time since 2013, with the narrative being that he has eschewed strikeouts in favor of weak contact early in at-bats. His career-low K rate, downturn in average velocity and MLB-leading 13 wins would seem to be further evidence of his newfound ability to go deeper into games by easing off the gas pedal. There is one problem: his rate of
This wagon heads west to tackle an incredibly imbalanced division in terms of fantasy strength. Cleveland has the best rotation in the American League if not the majors; the White Sox have the prototype in place for an ideal rotation one through five, that is if everyone cooperates; the Tigers have a veteran trying to rekindle old magic and a precocious big-dollar acquisition trying to keep the tent posts stuck despite a harsh wind; the Royals are a struggle and the Twins are a joke. Given the fantasy relevance, some of these teams might be lacking in pitchers who are worth a write-up while others are five pitchers deep.

The same rules apply: Grades are based on first-half performance, relative to cost on draft day. Write-ups are focused on the pitcher's outlook for the second half. Stats are through June 30.

Chicago White Sox

Chris Sale

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
16 113 13 2.79 0.98 109

Sale's deliberate approach to trim strikeouts in lieu of a more efficient pitch count has worked, in a sense. The left-hander has thrown more than seven innings per start for the first time since 2013, with the narrative being that he has eschewed strikeouts in favor of weak contact early in at-bats. His career-low K rate, downturn in average velocity and MLB-leading 13 wins would seem to be further evidence of his newfound ability to go deeper into games by easing off the gas pedal. There is one problem: his rate of pitches-per-plate-appearance (P/PA) is a dead ringer for his career mark at 3.88 P/PA this season. The figure was also 3.88 P/PA for 2015 (though in '14 it was 4.01 P/PA). He might be inducing more contact and sacrificing strikeouts, but on a per-batter basis, Sale's pitch-count efficiency has not changed. The fantasy trade-off will be worth it if he continues to rack up wins (his 13 wins already tied last season's total for his most in the last four years), but the W is a volatile stat. He fetched a hefty price on draft day, and if a K-per-inning is the expectation then it will be difficult for Sale to pitch well enough to completely recoup his value. He also has a 4.63 ERA over his last seven starts, and one wonders if he will re-adjust his approach if it stops working. His owners are content, but they may become disgruntled if those Ws disappear.

Grade: B+

Jose Quintana

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
16 104.2 5 3.18 1.16 96

The last two-and-a-half seasons, Quintana has posted a 3.32 ERA, an even better FIP (3.02) and a 451:121 K:BB ratio in 511.1 innings. This season stands out from the others for one reason: hits. JQ's hit rate is a career-low 8.3 H/9, a mark that is low but not necessarily unsustainable. His strikeouts have taken a small jump to a career-high 8.3 K/9, with a perfect match in K count and hit count, two numbers that have never tilted to the good side of the ledger for Quintana. He just can't buy a W. He's 5-8 this year and 23-29 the last three seasons. As mentioned with Sale, wins can be fickle, and the fact that Sale's 13-2 and Quintana's 5-8 come from back-to-back starters on the same team, despite similar run prevention, exemplifies the risk inherent in extrapolating wins for the rest of the year.

Grade: B

Carlos Rodon

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
15 87 2 4.24 1.46 88

Rodon has calmed the waters of his walk rate this season. He has shaved an incredible 1.4 BB/9 off of his walk rate and has only given away more than two freebies in three of his 14 starts. He has also gone at least six frames in 11 of 14 starts and has kept the earned runs at no more than two in six of his last seven. The strikeouts have stayed on pace with last season, but given the upward trajectory of his other strike-zone indicators, he might have an uptick in strikeouts in the second half.

Grade: C+

James Shields

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
16 87.2 3 5.85 1.68 70

The shape of Shields' season has been disconcerting. This is a pitcher who had a 3.06 ERA as recently as May 25, and there were clear mechanical underpinnings to his utter disaster of June, so with Shields working to address those needs and coming off a positive start (granted it was against the Twins), his value could theoretically bounce back to the surface in the next several weeks. Beware that his fantasy value wasn't that strong to begin with, though -- his walks are at an all-time high (nearly double his career rate) while the Ks have reverted to pre-2015 levels of modesty; at this point he has lost any long-term trust.

Grade: D-

Cleveland Indians

Corey Kluber

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
16 110.2 8 3.5 0.98 110

A few disaster starts have conspired to keep his ERA artificially high, just as it did last season, resulting in a rounding-error match of ERA (3.50) in almost exactly half the innings of last season. He has tossed three complete games, two if which were shutouts, and though his K rate has dropped by a batter-per-nine, his stinginess for walks is ever present (2.0 BB/'9 or lower in each of last four seasons) and his WHIP leads the American League. The first-half grade suffers due to the WHIP being the only fantasy stat that stands out as well as Kluber's high cost of acquisition -- he's basically Sale, with a higher ERA and slightly lower expectations. He is utterly dominant most of the time, but the games that he is off have been extremely painful to the stat line, and his ability not to lose it could shape his overall contributions for the first-place Indians. With his awesome delivery and two-headed monster of a Slydra, Kluber could go on a run.

Grade: B

Danny Salazar

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
15 93.1 10 2.22 1.11 107

Salazar is walking far too many batters this season, but if that's the tradeoff for cutting his homers in half and lopping 22 percent off his hit rate, he'll take it. The problem is that those hit and homer rates are so low they seem bound to regress, and with them the ERA likely will inflate along with the WHIP. Take those away, and what are you left with? A high-strikeout pitcher whose 10-3 record stands head and shoulders above the pitchers on what might be the best pitching rotation in the majors. This is a four-category, impact starter when on top of his game, and he has shown no signs of slowing down lately, coming off one of his strongest starts of the season (granted he was facing the Braves). The walks are worrisome and regression looms on balls in play, but Salazar has the stuff and the delivery to stabilize the free passes and continue his reign of dominance.

Grade: A-

Carlos Carrasco

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
10 63.1 4 2.56 1.06 63

Carrasco is just hitting his stride. He followed his shutout of the Tigers (7 K, 5 baserunners) with a dazzling 14-strikeout performance over 7.1 frames Thursday against the Blue Jays. The massive K-count was a half-dozen more strikeouts than Carrasco had sent back to the dugout in any start this season, and his last two games the right-hander has totaled 16.1 innings with one earned run, seven hits and three walks against 21 strikeouts. Now that Carrasco is healthy and pitching like he didn't miss a beat, the Indians are back to having three of the four best pitchers in the division. His first month was solid-yet-unspectacular and the results were similar for his second batch of four start (after returning from injury), but the last two games indicate that Carrasco might be ready to assert his dominance with authority. His first-half grade suffers from the missed time, but I expect his second half to more than make up the difference.

Grade: C+

Trevor Bauer

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
12 90.1 6 3.19 1.17 84

The big question on everyone's mind is whether Bauer has really turned a corner, or whether he's about to turn back into a pumpkin, but I think that the progress that he has made as a pitcher is legit. Bauer is an advanced student of pitching, but his tendency to overcomplicate -- his repertoire, his mechanics and his approach -- created a series of roadblocks that prevented him from reaching his potential. He has eliminated many of those roadblocks this season, scrapping a couple of the more-eccentric pitches from his arsenal, simplifying his delivery and tailoring his approach behind repetition of release point rather than exploiting angles and edges. Embracing complexity is admirable, but a player can't reach his full potential without first mastering simplicity.

Grade: B+

Josh Tomlin

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
14 4 9 3.32 1.06 56

Tomlin's not going to stand out on this staff and his fantasy utility is capped by a low strikeout rate, but he has great control (eight walks this season) and has been keeping the contact in check. Expect him to be prone to the occasional dumpster fire, but Tomlin should help the WHIP even if he gets burned by balls in play.

Grade: C

Detroit Tigers

Justin Verlander

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
16 104.2 7 4.3 1.13 107

Verlander is one of the toughest pitchers to predict, because he has displayed such disparate versions of himself over the years. Gone are the elite fastball and jaw-dropping curve that once formed the foundation of his value. Verlander has often struggled with his diminished repertoire. The key is mechanical consistency to give himself enhanced command, and though Verlander will show that for stretches, there are other times that he will veer to the first-base side as if there is an invisible wall on the mound to his immediate right, a mechanical inefficiency that throws him off kilter. The return of his strikeouts helps to buffer Verlander against runs and hits, and the empty swings have been consistent, with seven or more punchouts in seven of his last 10 starts.

Grade: B-

Jordan Zimmermann

Zimmermann came to Detroit as one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball. Many of his numbers took a hit in 2015 (velo down, ERA up), but his outstanding April seemed to erase fears about his transition to the AL. But Zimm has been living a nightmare since mid-May, with five or more runs allowed in his five of his last eight starts, three of which pinned seven earned runs each to his baseball card. His strikeouts have fallen from low to nearly unplayable -- he has struck out only three batters in six of his last seven starts (and 7 of 9). He needs to stay on fantasy benches until further notice, and though he can earn back the green light, it will take awhile to have faith restored.

Grade: D+

Michael Fulmer

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
11 63.2 7 2.4 1.16 60

Fulmer has been on fire for more than a month with seven consecutive starts of no more than one run allowed, a stretch that includes a 0.61 ERA in 44.1 innings with just 21 hits allowed and a 38:15 K:BB ratio. His pitch-efficiency has been inconsistent but shown flashes of being a real asset, and though the walks have been a bit high, the fact that nobody can touch the kid bodes well for his WHIP. He likely will be limited to 160 or fewer innings this season, of which he has already chewed through 79 frames between the majors and minors, but he is on pace to get his innings without needing a shutdown until September.

Grade: B+

Kansas City Royals

Edinson Volquez

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
17 99.1 7 4.8 1.43 77

Volquez is on the border of not deserving a write-up, as he has firmly established himself as a pitcher who notches his 7.0 K/9 with 3.5 BB/9, with a wildly bouncing ERA that hops around at the mercy of balls in play. Expect the ratios to hold steady in the second half even if the ERA continues to bounce around, and there is little upside in enlisting his services.

Grade: D

Ian Kennedy

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
15 88.2 6 3.96 1.18 85

Kennedy was having a superficially solid season until the calendar flipped to June -- and his recent 11-K start against the Astros likely will renew optimism -- but Kennedy should best be used as a spot starter rather than an arm to rely upon. The KC defense has definitely helped to resurrect his value, translating to just 76 hits allowed in 88.2 innings for 7.7 H/9, his lowest since 2011. He will battle to maintain that hit rate in the second half.

Grade: C+

Yordano Ventura

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
15 84.2 6 5 1.45 63

Well, I supposed that the second half can't get much worse than the first. Ventura's ERA exploded along with his walk rate, he was suspended for his part in a brawl and in his last start the Cardinals roped him around Kaffman Stadium to the tune of seven runs and 11 baserunners over just 5.1 innings. He has cleared a half-dozen strikeouts just once this season -- a 10-K outlier against the White Sox two starts ago -- but his walk rate is a source of optimism. Ventura gave away a whopping 33 walks (with 34 Ks) in his first nine starts and 48.2 innings this season, but over his last six turns he has given up just six total walks in 36 innings. Too bad that three of those six games have seen six or more opposing runners cross the plate.

Grade: D

Danny Duffy

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
9 66.2 3 3.24 1.08 79

In terms of fantasy value, Duffy's season has recently turned a corner with no signs of looking back. He spent the first seven weeks pitching out of the bullpen but has taken his last nine turns in the rotation. He slowly worked his way up with the pitch count but has exceeded the century mark in each of his last two games. Duffy has struck out eight or more batters in four of his last five starts and hasn't surrendered more than three runs in any start this month. His success may have crept up on your league-mates, and with the potential for a large innings cap and yet less than 70 under his belt, Duffy is unlikely to be limited in terms of workload down the stretch. His first-half grade is modest due to the relief work, but I like Duffy's chances to have an impact in the second half.

Grade: B-

Minnesota Twins

Ricky Nolasco

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
16 96.2 3 5.31 1.38 79

Nolasco only clears the bar for write-up because his outstanding K/BB (it's 4.2) might entice some managers to look into his services. It's best you don't. Nolasco has never been a very strong starter, his K/BB is driven more by a low walk rate than a high strikeout rate, and like the rest of the pitchers on the Minnesota staff he gives up a ton of homers. In DFS, stacking against the Twins pitchers might nearly as effective a strategy as stacking hitters at Coors Field.

Grade: D

Ervin Santana

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
14 77.2 2 4.64 1.44 55

He has the lowest ERA among the starters on the Twins' staff, as the only pitcher who has made six or more start yet has an ERA less than 5.00. That's the Twins staff for you. Everyone gives up 10 hits per nine, everyone coughs up 1.3 homers per nine, and the winningest pitcher on staff has three victories. It's probably best to look elsewhere; your fantasy team thanks you.

Grade: D+

Jose Berrios

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
4 15 1 10.2 2.13 20

Berrios is the one pitcher in Minnesota who carries some intrigue, but the early returns were even uglier than that of his mates in the rotation. Berrios was not ready when pressed into service the first time, despite minor-league numbers that might indicate the contrary, as he started the season with mechanics out of whack. He was misaligned, such that Berrios was aimed at the right-hand batter's box at release point rather than being lined up with the catcher's target, and the result was a constant stream of pitches that missed badly to the arm side. The predictable-yet-wayward pitches left Berrios completely vulnerable to the strengths of big-league hitters, and in my opinion the Twins should have sent him back to the minors even earlier to iron out the wrinkles. I expect them to be smarter with his ascension the next time around, especially with the 2016 season already a lost cause for Minnesota, and I think that Berrios can still be a difference-making pitcher when at peak.

Grade: Incomplete

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Doug Thorburn
Doug started writing for RotoWire in April of 2015. His work can be found elsewhere at Baseball Prospectus and RotoGrinders, and as the co-host of the Baseballholics Anonymous podcast. Thorburn's expertise lies on the mound, where he tackles the world of pitching with an emphasis on mechanical evaluation. He spent five years at the National Pitching Association working under pitching coach Tom House, where Thorburn ran the hi-speed motion analysis program in addition to serving as an instructor. Thorburn and House wrote the 2009 book, “Arm Action, Arm Path, and the Perfect Pitch: Building a Million Dollar Arm,” using data from hi-speed motion analysis to tackle conventional wisdom in baseball. His DraftKings ID is “Raising Aces”.
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