This article is part of our Series to Watch series.
The loss of Alex Gordon was devastating for Kansas City, given his impact at the plate and in the field, and the Royals will suffer from a sharp decline in performance from replacements such as Jarrod Dyson. KC's most intriguing pitcher, Yordano Ventura, threw Thursday, as did the Jays' biggest punching bag, R.A. Dickey, so there are a couple missed opportunities on both sides of the ball in this series. The pitching slate overall is pretty thin, which should open the floodgates for some strong performances from the relevant fantasy bats.
v.
Game 1: Friday, July 10 at 7:10 p.m. CDT: Marco Estrada vs. Danny Duffy
I expect this series to be full of runs due to the weak arms that will be toeing the rubber for both clubs. Estrada has a career-long pull toward the long ball, with a career rate of 1.4 homers per nine innings and exceeding one homer per nine in every season of his career. He's an over-the-top thrower who tends to throw strikes even when he misses targets, leaving Estrada vulnerable when he elevates a pitch to the upper half of the strike zone.
Duffy was knocked out of the Royals' rotation in mid-May thanks to a 5.87 ERA at the time and a total of 10 walks in his final two starts of the month, was subsequently sent down for a few brief turns in Iowa, and despite his success in the PCL and a respectable 3.57 ERA, there are
The loss of Alex Gordon was devastating for Kansas City, given his impact at the plate and in the field, and the Royals will suffer from a sharp decline in performance from replacements such as Jarrod Dyson. KC's most intriguing pitcher, Yordano Ventura, threw Thursday, as did the Jays' biggest punching bag, R.A. Dickey, so there are a couple missed opportunities on both sides of the ball in this series. The pitching slate overall is pretty thin, which should open the floodgates for some strong performances from the relevant fantasy bats.
v.Game 1: Friday, July 10 at 7:10 p.m. CDT: Marco Estrada vs. Danny Duffy
I expect this series to be full of runs due to the weak arms that will be toeing the rubber for both clubs. Estrada has a career-long pull toward the long ball, with a career rate of 1.4 homers per nine innings and exceeding one homer per nine in every season of his career. He's an over-the-top thrower who tends to throw strikes even when he misses targets, leaving Estrada vulnerable when he elevates a pitch to the upper half of the strike zone.
Duffy was knocked out of the Royals' rotation in mid-May thanks to a 5.87 ERA at the time and a total of 10 walks in his final two starts of the month, was subsequently sent down for a few brief turns in Iowa, and despite his success in the PCL and a respectable 3.57 ERA, there are underlying indicators that Duffy is not long for the job, including 24 base runners and just 11 punch outs through 17.2 innings since his return.
Game 2: Saturday, July 11 at 1:10pm CDT: Mark Buehrle vs. Chris Young
Buehrle has survived with mid-80's velocity for years thanks to a quick pace that keeps batters on their toes and a movement wrinkle in every pitch that he throws. He's a master of generating balls in play, with a low K rate of just 12.7 percent and one of the tiniest walk rates of his career at just 4.3 percent. Buehrle always feels at risk of a blow-up start but mostly walks between the raindrops, but the interaction of a contact-heavy lineup and a pitcher who avoids true outcomes opens up the range of potential results in Game 2.
Buehrle's opponent on the mound is an ultra-tall, right-handed version of himself. Young averages just 87 mph on his fastball and is carrying low true outcomes rates of 16 percent strikeouts (it was 15.7 percent last season) and 6.8 percent walks (the lowest since his rookie year). Young has been surprisingly effective this season but the wheels are starting to fall off the wagon, with the regression that one might predict from a pitcher whose ERA (2.89) and FIP (4.05) are more than a full run apart, and the magic beans that helped Young to a 0.78 ERA through his first 34.7 innings are quickly running out of juice.
Game 3: Sunday, July 12 at 1:10pm CDT: Felix Doubront vs. Edinson Volquez
Doubront has been easily hittable at every level throughout his career, filling up the bases with a 1.47 WHIP in 447.1 big-league innings that is still just a 1.28 when looking at his work in the minors. Throughout his major-league career, the southpaw has given up more hits, walks and homers than league average, a combination that will likely lead to crooked numbers in Kansas City on Sunday.
Volquez has morphed his game from the walk-heavy hurler of his youth into one who has done a better job of generating weak contact and lowering the walks despite throwing fewer strikes overall, taking advantage of the count and batter tendencies to make more of his stuff. He has tamed the homers in recent seasons, a key attribute when facing the powerful Jays, and his ability to put up an ERA in the threes despite a FIP in the fours for the second consecutive season adds some confidence that it's a repeatable skill.
Josh Donaldson, 3B – He may have gotten a late start to his MLB career, but Donaldson is making up for lost time while demonstrating an advanced learning curve with performance that improves with each passing season. He destroys southpaws with a .598 slugging percentage and .299 ISO against them in his career, putting him in the offensive spotlight for Toronto versus Danny Duffy in Game 1 of the series. He's well on his way to a season of 60-plus extra-base hits, with 21 homers and 22 doubles in his first 87 games, including 60 RBI and an MLB-leading 65 runs scored (tied with Minnesota's Brian Dozier) while manning the two-spot in the order on a regular basis.
Jose Bautista, OF – After a slow start in the power department that included a .164 batting average in April and just two homers in May, Bautista rebounded with eight June bombs (though zero doubles) and has tacked on two more in his first nine games of July. His 65 walks lead the American League by a comfortable margin, giving him a robust .380 on-base percentage despite a Kingman-inspired .234 batting average. He is a constant threat to leave the yard but has become somewhat one-dimensional this season, as even the power is off-pace from previous years.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B – The power outage runs deeper the further we go down the list, and one wonders what this club would look like offensively if not for the off-season steal that brought Donaldson aboard. Power can be streaky and either Encarnacion or Bautista could pick up the pace suddenly and without warning, but a continuation of 2015 trends would mark a large step back; from 2012 to 2014 Encarnacion slashed .274/.370/.546 with a homer every 13.8 at bats, but his current .239/.330/.457 slash with a bomb every 17.2 at- ats pales in comparison.
Jose Reyes, SS – The days of 50-steal seasons are over (he hasn't stolen that many since 2008); in fact, Reyes hasn't stolen more than 40 bags since that '08 season and has played in more than 145 games just once in the span. He won't beat the mark this season given that he has already visited the disabled list, and though any offense from a shortstop is a welcome site, his .299 OBP and .378 slugging percentage are far below his previous career-lows in either category (unless counting his 53-game stretch in his age-21 campaign). Power doesn't need to be part of his game but Reyes' diminished walk rate is a major concern, leaving one to wonder if his days as a leadoff hitter are limited.
Eric Hosmer, 1B – Hosmer has teased high-end talent for several years now, and the 25-year old is running out of time to blame his inconsistencies on the capricious ways of youth. Hosmer's OPS peaked at .965 back on May 15, but since then it has tumbled to a .239/.290/.301 line and just one homer in 176 plate appearances. The lone homer came back on June 19, and his ongoing love affair with hitting the ball on the ground is just not conducive with the production expected of a middle-order hitter. I fully expect to be in this same spot next season, with Hosmer having cooled off after yet another hot start.
Lorenzo Cain, OF – Cain has picked up where others have left off, greatly upping his power game this year despite an age (29) that is usually reserved for those who are trying to maintain the skill set more than improve it. His eight homers are already a career-high (he hit five in 2014), his .177 ISO is 26 points higher than his previous best, and his walk rate has jumped from last season's 4.6-percent of plate appearances to 7.0 percent. He has been killing it over the past few weeks, slashing .400/.471/.747 over his last 20 games to carry the offense, including 15 hits for extra bases during that stretch. Expect a knock of regression over the balance of the season, but there are indicators that his improvement is very real, and Cain could present an imposing combination of power and speed over the second half of the season.
Mike Moustakas, 3B – His availability for this weekend's series is in question, as Moustakas has been out of the lineup this week while attending to a family emergency, so there's a chance that Mous doesn't make an appearance. For what it's worth, Moustakas has finally put together a solid stretch of offensive contribution, with a .301/.357/.436 line that underscores his across-the-board improvements, though a 4-for-36 slump over his past 10 games has dropped the season OPS by 61 points and left the peanut gallery to wonder if he is being inflicted by the same Offensive Tease Syndrome that has ruined Hosmer's season. OTS is a serious condition that affects dozens of ballplayers each year, but his presence will be needed in order to spread awareness.
Salvador Perez, C – Perez has long been heralded as the rare catcher whose lumber presents a formidable weapon, and though his power has continued to blossom with age, the backstop suffers from a lack of walks and a free-falling batting average that have combined to leave his OBP in shambles (it's currently just .274 on the season). The power is legit (he has 14 homers already this season), but that skill is mitigated when making outs in 73 percent of plate appearances. Perez mashes lefties with an OPS that's 90 points higher when facing southpaws in his career, so he will look to take advantage of the platoon split against Mark Buehrle and Felix Doubront in Games 2 and 3 of this series.
