Early in the season, as I was meting out my Sorare MLB considerations, I looked into numbers that tend to speak of luck, both of the good and the bad variety. The idea being that, more likely than not, the luck would level off in the long run. Well, now we are at the end of the MLB season, by and large, and that did not prove inherently true. It never does, but you never know whose luck will remain particularly good or particularly bad. Or, in some instances, it's a mix of luck and perhaps the need for a small tweak or two to improve performance.
As we start to think about next season from a Sorare MLB standpoint as much as we think about the rest of this season, I thought it would make sense to look at things from a seasonal luck standpoint. Here are my upgrades, holds and downgrades, and also a reminder that as long as luck is involved, nobody will ever manage perfect predictions.
Upgrades
Junior Caminero, TAM ($7.19): Caminero has smacked 44 home runs, picked up over 100 RBI, and delivered many games with double-digit Sorare points. He had two games with over 50.0 Sorare points, by the way. It will be hard for the 22-year-old to significantly better those numbers, but there is reason (beyond mere aging curves) to believe his future is quite bright. Caminero has averaged .260 with a .254 BABIP. A lot of sluggers have low BABIPs, but Caminero came into this year with a career .288 BABIP. Even if his BABIP doesn't improve a ton, two of the dozen-or-so players below him are Kyle Schwarber and Cal Raleigh. That trajectory would also work out just fine.
Zebby Matthews, MIN ($3.87): There may be something here. Yes, in the pitcher with a 5.97 ERA this year. Matthews has as many starts with over 30.0 Sorare points as he has starts with negative Sorare points, but he's only 25 and there are things to feel good about. Matthews has a 10.20 K/9 rate, for starters. He also may have had woeful luck. The Twin does have a 5.97 ERA, but that's paired with a 3.85 FIP. If, in 2026, Matthews is striking out guys left and right and has a sub-4.00 ERA, don't be surprised.
Wyatt Langford, TEX ($2.71): Langford is another young hitter who could possibly improve, but he's more in the "couple of tweaks" camp. From his rookie to his sophomore year he saw increases on the power front, and also in his style of hitting. That allowed him to get to 20 homers in fewer games than it took him to finish at 16 last season. Having barreled up 47 balls, though, there's an argument to be made Langford has the power to be a 30- or even 40-homer guy. This season his line-drive rate picked up quite a bit, and his flyball rate picked up a little. His medium-power hits jumped, and his hard-power hits went up a tad. His 17.5-degree launch angle may be fine, since he'll never be a Schwarber or an Aaron Judge, but he could pick up more Sorare points next season if more of those barrels head over the fence.
Holds
Trent Grisham, NYY ($5.61): In a way, Grisham has been unlucky, in that you can't control what the guys hitting ahead of you do. He has 33 homers, but with 71 RBI. The Yankees have plenty of guys who know how to hit, so that's a little surprising, and it cost Grisham a handful of Sorare points. That being said, this also came out of nowhere for Grisham. Previously, he had never even hit 20 homers in a season, and his HR/FB rate jumped up to 20.8 percent. He could have better luck with having guys on base in front of him in 2026, but there's also a good chance he doesn't deliver to the same degree.
Hunter Greene, CIN ($4.50): Greene has a top-five swinging strike rate. Many of the top guys on that front have FIPs in line with their ERA, and often better. Greene, though, has a 3.55 FIP compared to a 3.01 ERA. His 1.46 HR/9 rate is higher than the rest of the top swing-and-miss pitchers, and his 29.0-percent groundball rate is quite low for an ace. Greene will deliver strikeouts going forward, but he could also end up with an ERA over 4.00 in 2026 as well.
Downgrades
Noah Cameron, KAN ($4.85): Call me a spoilsport for pumping the brakes on a promising young pitcher, but Cameron may not be as promising as you might think. He had a 2.69 ERA in his time in Triple-A, so a 2.98 ERA as an MLB rookie doesn't feel implausible in and of itself. However, has a 4.21 FIP and a 4.32 xFIP. His 7.30 K/9 rate isn't bad, but it's definitely not good, and it's quite hard to sustain an ERA under 3.00 at that rate without excellent luck or being elite at inducing groundballs and keeping the ball in the park. Cameron? His groundball rate is 40.3 percent and his HR/9 rate is 1.20. Neither of those is close to elite.
Jordan Beck, COL ($1.73): Obviously, once I settled in on considering luck, when I got here to the downgrades my first thought was, "Who had an unsustainably-high BABIP in 2025?" Beck is the easy answer. Coors Field or not, Beck has a .366 BABIP. Last year, I grant you in 55 games, he had a .282 BABIP. By the way, even with that BABIP and his home park, Beck has hit .269 and has delivered plenty of games with negative Sorare points.
Yainer Diaz, HOU ($0.90): Even as a catcher with 19 homers, Diaz's future is unclear. Once he's no longer able to catch on the regular, his hitting profile won't cut it, but there's even reason to think his ability to hit at an above-average level for his current position will dissipate quickly. The guy is profoundly undisciplined at the plate, as undisciplined as anybody. It's not just that he has a 3.8-percent walk rate. His 46.6-percent chase rate is the highest in MLB. Diaz is going to finish with a sub-.300 OBP, and I think he may never finish a full season above that threshold again.
