The RotoWire 200: January Edition

This is our top 200 for 12-team, mixed-league drafts. It assumes that you start two catchers, start 14 hitters and 9 pitchers. If this were to translate to auction values, it would assume a 70-30 hitter/pitcher split. Hence, pitchers end up slotting below where they might otherwise, especially closers. Your mileage, of course, may vary as you plot your draft strategy.

I have a list of "known outliers," that I plan to blog about much like I did for Emilio Bonifacio. Feel free to discuss here in the comments too, but I'll have expanded thoughts coming soon.

Known high outliers:

Brett Lawrie, Alex Gordon, Dee Gordon, Michael Cuddyer, Cole Hamels, Stephen Strasburg, Kenley Jansen, Brandon League, Cory Luebke

Known low outliers:

Josh Hamilton, Ryan Zimmerman, Shane Victorino, handful of closers, especially Heath Bell and Brian Wilson

1. Matt Kemp, OF - Kemp is durable, provides power, speed and probably a plus batting average.
2. Albert Pujols, 1B - He's in a new location, but the difference in parks should be negligible.
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B - Cabrera is as reliable as it gets these days. The safest pick on the board.
4. Jose Bautista, 3B/OF - You can make a case for Bautista to be first overall because he's 3B-eligible.
5. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF - Ellsbury hit 32 homers last year; how many do you project for him this year?
6. Carlos Gonzalez, OF - CarGo went 27-92-92 despite a wrist injury last year.
7. Joey Votto, 1B - If Votto ever increased his flyball rate, he could hit 40 homers someday.
8. Justin Upton, OF - Upton is just starting to hit his prime; his ceiling is scary-high.
9. Troy Tulowitzki, SS - Tulowitzki's rank suffers because of durability concerns.
10. Evan Longoria, 3B - To justify this ranking, Longoria needs to start running again.
11. Robinson Cano, 2B - Cano is a very reliable source of 25+ homers, .300+ batting average.
12. Curtis Granderson, OF - Granderson learned to pound left-handers last season.
13. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B - Gonzalez traded some power for a higher average in Fenway.
14. Prince Fielder, 1B - Fielder had bad timing to be a free agent, with Pujols also on the market.
15. Hanley Ramirez, SS - Ramirez's recovery from his shoulder injury is the bigger story than his position change.
16. Clayton Kershaw, P - For the good of the game, I hope he stays healthy so we can see elite career numbers.
17. Roy Halladay, P - Halladay is safer than Kershaw but has a slightly lower ceiling.
18. Dustin Pedroia, 2B - Pedroia was a beast over the final four months of the season.
19. Andrew McCutchen, OF - McCutchen's batting average should recover, but is there another step in power?
20. Ian Kinsler, 2B - Kinsler's .244 BABIP prevented him from having a truly elite season.
21. Mike Stanton, OF - This is may be too high, but better a year early than a year late.
22. Jose Reyes, SS - The tricky part with Reyes is predicting how many games he'll play.
23. Cliff Lee, P - Lee isn't that far off from Kershaw and Halladay.
24. Justin Verlander, P - Will Verlander's 2011 mileage hurt his 2012 numbers?
25. David Wright, 3B - Wright should benefit from the fences moving in at Citi Field.
26. Carlos Santana, C - If you don't give a boost to positional scarcity, drop Santana et al 20 spots.
27. Mark Teixeira, 1B - The shift played against Teixeira appears to have a significant drag on his average.
28. Cole Hamels, P - Hamels doesn't get treated as one of the elites, but he's there on my board.
29. Shin-Soo Choo, OF - Choo's all-around ability almost always ranks him higher than I expect going in.
30. Brett Lawrie, 3B - If Lawrie runs as often as he did last year, he deserves this spot.
31. B.J. Upton, OF - Is this Upton's last year with the Rays?
32. Victor Martinez, C - This could be Martinez's last year qualifying as a catcher.
33. Starlin Castro, SS - How much of a power climb is remaining?
34. Felix Hernandez, P - King Felix gets dragged down by his teammates in the wins category.
35. David Price, P - Watch his fastball in spring training; he was fatigued in September.
36. Tim Lincecum, P - Lincecum's increased fastball velocity bodes well for 2012 success.
37. CC Sabathia, P - Sabathia had a rough September in an otherwise superb season.
38. Adrian Beltre, 3B - Beltre won a lot of leagues with his final month's stats.
39. Buster Posey, C - Posey could play a lot of first base as recovers from his broken leg.
40. Desmond Jennings, OF - Jennings could end up as a 20-40 player eventually, if not in 2012.
41. Alex Gordon, OF - We know the pedigree was there; why can't he repeat?
42. Jay Bruce, OF - Bruce improved his walk rate and hit for more power against lefties in 2011.
43. Josh Hamilton, OF - It's hard to project Hamilton to play more than 125 games, hence his ranking here.
44. Matt Holliday, OF - Holliday's rate stats remained constant last year despite the injuries.
45. Yovani Gallardo, P - Gallardo showed real skills growth in 2011, cutting down his walks again.
46. Jered Weaver, P - Weaver gets remarkable results despite a fastball that hovers around 89-90 mph.
47. Ryan Braun, OF - Braun immediately goes back into the top-five if his suspension is overturned.
48. Elvis Andrus, SS - Andrus improved his contact rate to 87 percent last year.
49. Hunter Pence, OF - Pence should be fully recovered from his hernia operation by spring training.
50. Jon Lester, P - Make a joke about chicken-and-beer when his name comes up, then buy him.
51. Dan Haren, P - There's some potential he'll get overdrafted because of last year's season.
52. Stephen Strasburg, P - I'm admittedly bullish on Strasburg; he's the pitching equivalent to Mike Stanton.
53. Paul Konerko, 1B - Konerko seemingly is always overlooked among the second tier of first baseman.
54. Aramis Ramirez, 3B - Ramirez should benefit from the move to Milwaukee.
55. Mike Napoli, C - What a closing stretch for Napoli; Texas is the perfect fit for him.
56. Brian McCann, C - An oblique injury robbed McCann of a career-year in 2011.
57. Zack Greinke, P - Virtually every advanced metric suggests Greinke was due a better result than he got in 2011.
58. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B - This ranking assumes some of Zimmerman's groundball spike was for real.
59. Michael Bourn, OF - If he hits .285+, Bourn will net you a profit from this spot.
60. Alex Rodriguez, 3B - A-Rod went to Germany for experimental procedures on his knee and shoulder.
61. Pablo Sandoval, 3B - Sandoval is projected for 23 homers, but has a 30+ homer upside.
62. Michael Cuddyer, OF/1B - Cuddyer will get a big bump in moving from Target Field to Coors Field.
63. Nelson Cruz, OF - Cruz's perpetual leg injuries drive his draft price down.
64. Carl Crawford, OF - Crawford's batting average should improve; will he run more again?
65. Dan Hudson, P - Hudson's strikeout rate could begin to climb back up.
66. Matt Garza, P - Garza pitched much better than his record and ERA indicated last season.
67. Brandon Phillips, 2B - Phillips' stat-line from year-to-year is remarkably consistent.
68. Joe Mauer, C - The power isn't coming back, but the batting average should.
69. Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF - Zobrist had a whopping 82 extra-base hits last season.
70. Craig Kimbrel, P - Kimbrel gives you so many strikeouts as a reliever that he's clearly the top closer.
71. Dan Uggla, 2B - Uggla rewarded those who remained patient, after punishing them in the first half.
72. Adam Jones, OF - Jones will probably never walk as much as we'd like, which puts a cap on his value.
73. Ricky Romero, P - If Romero ever pitched in the NL, he'd be a top-40 player.
74. Josh Beckett, P - Beckett's September overshadowed an otherwise elite season.
75. Drew Stubbs, OF - Stubbs took a significant step backwards, losing all confidence in the second half.
76. Miguel Montero, C - Montero will probably spend the full season in the middle of the order this year.
77. Matt Wieters, C - After years of going over slot, Wieters presents bargain potential in 2012.
78. Kevin Youkilis, 3B - Youkilis has Last Year's Bums potential, especially if you wait a little on third base.
79. Dee Gordon, SS - Gordon could steal upwards of 50 bases in a full season.
80. Shane Victorino, OF - Victorino was on a career-year pace before injuries hit last season.
81. James Shields, P - Shields was the subject of trade rumors this offseason, but so far he remains in Tampa Bay.
82. C.J. Wilson, P - Wilson thrived in Texas; the move to Anaheim should only help.
83. Eric Hosmer, 1B - Years from now, Trumbo over Hosmer is going to look pretty silly.
84. Chase Utley, 2B - Can Utley ever get back to the 30-homer plateau?
85. Rickie Weeks, 2B - We've seen what Weeks can do when healthy, alas he's been healthy once in five years.
86. Mark Reynolds, 3B - Reynolds has very reliable power, albeit with a very reliable batting average risk.
87. Michael Young, 3B - Young's low walk-rate works to our advantage when he hits for high average.
88. Alex Avila, C - There is a pretty big drop-off at the catcher spot after Avila.
89. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS - Cabrera broke out for 25 homers last season; we project 17 for him this season.
90. Matt Cain, P - I'm convinced Cain's low HR/FB rate is a skill, not a fluke.
91. John Axford, P - Axford's shaky first week of 2011 is long forgotten.
92. Derek Jeter, SS - Jeter's so overrated that he's now underrated in fantasy circles.
93. Mariano Rivera, P - Rivera is still the safest closer out there; his surgery this offseason was to his vocal chords.
94. Josh Johnson, P - Johnson's shoulder will be one of the closer-watched stories this spring.
95. Mat Latos, P - The Reds took a big gamble that Latos can be an ace outside of Petco Park.
96. Adam Wainwright, P - Wainwright is returning from Tommy John surgery, apparently without Dave Duncan.
97. Drew Storen, P - Storen is the latest player to tank in the spring then dominate in the summer.
98. Jayson Werth, OF - Werth has good buy-low potential after he tanked in his first year with the Nats.
99. Jimmy Rollins, SS - Rollins is back for three more years with the Phillies, at age 33.
100. Ichiro Suzuki, OF - Ichiro is coming off his worst season; can his batting average rebound?
101. Andre Ethier, OF - Ethier apparently played a significant part of 2011 with a bad knee, which explains the power decline.
102. Chris Young, OF - What you see is what you get with Young; a low batting average with a 20-20 season.
103. Jonathan Papelbon, P - Papelbon should continue to thrive with Philly, even though four years is too long.
104. Jason Heyward, OF - Everything went wrong for Heyward, but don't forget he had a .849 OPS at age 20.
105. Matt Moore, P - Moore's contract extension implies he has a rotation slot locked up.
106. Madison Bumgarner, P - If Bumgarner can replicate his second half, this ranking is too low.
107. Michael Pineda, P - Pineda faded with the added workload late, but the sky is the limit here.
108. Ian Kennedy, P - Kennedy's wins last season will lead him to be drafted higher than this, which is a mistake.
109. Lance Berkman, 1B/OF - Berkman should play exclusively at first base this year.
110. Jemile Weeks, 2B - Weeks was the one hitter the A's deemed untouchable this winter.
111. Yu Darvish, P - The best to come over from Japan so far, assuming he signs.
112. Howie Kendrick, 2B/OF - Kendrick finally had his breakout in 2011; this is as good as it gets.
113. Corey Hart, OF - Speed isn't a significant part of Hart's game any longer.
114. Brett Gardner, OF - Is this the year the Yankees stick Gardner in the leadoff spot and leave him there?
115. Ryan Madson, P - Madson got his wish to close, getting a one-year deal with the Reds.
116. Cameron Maybin, OF - It's too bad that Maybin plays in Petco; he had huge home/road splits last year.
117. Cory Luebke, P - Then again, pitchers like Luebke wouldn't be so high but for Petco.
118. Ike Davis, 1B - Davis was having a fine sophomore season before his ankle injury; he should be ready for 2012.
119. Danny Espinosa, 2B - Espinosa can get you a 20-20 season, albeit at the expense of a low batting average.
120. Peter Bourjos, OF - The Angels' have a logjam in the outfield, but Bourjos' defense is a trump card.
121. Johnny Cueto, P - Cueto has traded strikeouts for control with positive results.
122. Derek Holland, P - Holland was 9-1 with a 3.06 ERA and 80 strikeouts after the All-Star break.
123. Brandon Beachy, P - With a little bit of run support, Beachy could be a monster this year.
124. Brandon League, P - League walked just three batters in 157 plate appearances in save situations last year.
125. Kenley Jansen, P - Jansen struck out a whopping 16.1 batters per nine innings last season.
126. Gio Gonzalez, P - Gonzalez leaves Oakland, but lands in a good spot in D.C.
127. Alexei Ramirez, SS - What you see is what you get; it's not bad, but it's not getting better.
128. David Ortiz, DH - It's hard to imagine Ortiz will stay as healthy as he did in 2011.
129. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B - Goldschmidt will strike out a lot, but his power is also legit.
130. Coco Crisp, OF - Crisp is back for more with the A's and should again be a cheap source of bags.
131. Michael Morse, 1B/OF - Morse won't hit .300 again this season without a considerable amount of luck.
132. Billy Butler, DH - Butler is hurt here by losing his first base eligibility.
133. Logan Morrison, OF - Morrison was on his way to a breakout before drama and then injuries interceded.
134. J.J. Putz, P - Putz is dominant when healthy, but at times it appears his arm is hanging by a thread.
135. Joel Hanrahan, P - Don't be alarmed in the drop in Hanrahan's strikeout rate; he's throwing as hard as ever.
136. Brian Wilson, P - Wilson dropped a bit in our rankings thanks to his season-ending elbow injury.
137. Colby Lewis, P - Lewis isn't exciting, but he'll get you strikeouts and probably a goodly amount of run support.
138. Chris Carpenter, P - Carpenter came on strong in the second half, but how much does he have left in the tank?
139. Tim Hudson, P - Hudson had surgery to fix a herniated disc in his back in the offseason.
140. Max Scherzer, P - Scherzer came up huge in the playoffs, demonstrating his not-always-realized talent.
141. Jason Kipnis, 2B - Kipnis is capable of hitting 15-to-20 homers right off the bat.
142. Carlos Beltran, OF - Is Beltran this year's version of Lance Berkman, getting healthy in St. Louis?
143. J.P. Arencibia, C - With Arencibia's low contact rate, he's always going to trade off power for batting average.
144. Neil Walker, 2B - Walker would really benefit if other Pittsburgh hitters took the leap this year.
145. Yadier Molina, C - Was 2011 a breakout season or a career year for Molina?
146. Erick Aybar, SS - Will Aybar get more walks or stolen bases this year?
147. Nick Swisher, OF - Boring, but in a good way.
148. Nick Markakis, OF - Markakis had abdominal surgery in January and might not be ready for the start of the season.
149. Anibal Sanchez, P - Sanchez has had two healthy seasons in a row, with considerable skills growth.
150. Hiroki Kuroda, P - Unsigned at press time, but Kuroda did say that he'll pitch in the U.S. one more year.
151. Jason Motte, P - Motte took over the closing duties halfway through 2011 and should keep the job this year.
152. Rafael Betancourt, P - Betancourt is a flyball pitcher in Coors Field, but he also doesn't walk anyone.
153. Carlos Marmol, P - Marmol melted down over the second half, but with Marshall gone, there's no competition.
154. Joe Nathan, P - The signing of Nathan by the Rangers ensures Neftali Feliz stays in the starting rotation.
155. Tommy Hanson, P - Hanson was dominant until his shoulder injury, after which he had a 5.59 ERA.
156. Jaime Garcia, P - Garcia isn't dominant, but his impeccable control goes a long way.
157. Wandy Rodriguez, P - Rodriguez spent the trade deadline and part of the offseason on the block, but remains in Houston for now.
158. Brandon McCarthy, P - McCarthy finally got to pitch at a place that doesn't punish flyball pitchers, with good results.
159. Trevor Cahill, P - On one hand, Cahill switches to the NL, but on the other hand he exchanges Oakland's park for Arizona's.
160. Freddie Freeman, 1B - The career track record of 21-year-olds that hold their own in the majors is fantastic.
161. Gaby Sanchez, 1B - Sanchez teased a breakout last year, only to fade in the second half.
162. J.J. Hardy, SS - Hey Minnesota, thanks for the free shortstop. Not that the Twins needed one or anything.
163. Huston Street, P - Street goes from Coors Field to Petco Park for the win.
164. Jose Valverde, P - Valverde is overrated in the beat writer world and underrated in the saber-community.
165. Sergio Santos, P - The White Sox's sign-and-trade of Santos to Toronto was perplexing.
166. Ubaldo Jimenez, P - Can Jimenez regain his velocity and benefit from the change in ballparks?
167. Jordan Walden, P - A brutal blown save the final weekend marred a superb rookie season for Walden.
168. Chris Perez, P - Beware of Perez's incredibly shrinking strikeout rate.
169. Joakim Soria, P - Soria's decline is illustrative in the danger of relying on max-effort relievers.
170. Vernon Wells, OF - Wells had a horrible overall season yet still hit 25 homers.
171. Angel Pagan, OF - Pagan now gets to ply his wares in San Francisco.
172. Stephen Drew, SS - Drew was a trendy breakout guy last year, but might be under the radar this year.
173. Mike Moustakas, 3B - Moustakas struggled as a rookie, but a big September gives us hope.
174. Mark Trumbo, 1B - An offseason foot injury scuttled the Angels attempt to transition Trumbo to third base.
175. Melky Cabrera, OF - The Giants bought high on Cabrera and sold low on Jonathan Sanchez.
176. Jeff Francoeur, OF - The Royals are buying into Francoeur with his contract, so his playing time is ensured.
177. Scott Baker, P - Health and not performance is Baker's biggest hurdle.
178. Alexi Ogando, P - Right now it looks as if Ogando will stay in the rotation.
179. Brandon Morrow, P - Morrow could be a boom or bust pick, but high strikeout pitchers are always worthy gambles.
180. Heath Bell, P - Is Bell's strikeout rate decline legit or a sample-size fluke?
181. Andrew Bailey, P - Bailey is dominant when healthy, but has had elbow problems each of the last two years.
182. Grant Balfour, P - Balfour is our pick to be the A's closer in the wake of the Andrew Bailey trade.
183. Jordan Zimmermann, P - The Nats will probably take the kid gloves off of Zimmermann this season.
184. Bud Norris, P - Norris is exciting, but his reliance on the slider is a warning signal.
185. Austin Jackson, OF - Jackson's strikeout rate is a problem, but on the plus side he did walk more last year.
186. David Freese, 3B - Freese would rate higher but for durability concerns.
187. Matt Joyce, OF - Joyce provided 19 homers and 13 steals despite getting platooned last season.
188. Martin Prado, 3B/OF - Prado was disappointing last year, but his third-base eligibility retains some of his value.
189. Torii Hunter, OF - Hunter is clearly slowing down; don't be surprised if he drops in the order this year.
190. Ervin Santana, P - Santana could be affected the most by who they choose to start in the outfield.
191. Jeremy Hellickson, P - Hellickson had a pretty big gap between his ERA and FIP-ERA.
192. Emilio Bonifacio, SS/3B/OF - Bonifacio's average will decline, but he could still get 30+ steals.
193. Doug Fister, P - Fister faced an easy schedule after joining the Tigers, but also came up big in the playoffs.
194. Adam Lind, 1B - Lind still can't hit lefties, limiting his overall value.
195. Dustin Ackley, 2B - Ackley held his own as a rookie and could provide double-digit homers and steals this year.
196. R.A. Dickey, P - How much will Dickey get hurt by the change in Citi Field's dimensions?
197. Ryan Howard, 1B - We project Howard to miss half the season with his Achilles' tendon injury.
198. Ryan Roberts, 3B/2B - Is Roberts a late bloomer or a one-hit wonder?
199. Colby Rasmus, OF - Rasmus tanked after the trade to Toronto, but he still has a load of talent.
200. Jhonny Peralta, SS - Peralta won't hit .299 again, but could have 15-20 homers.
201. Yoenis Cespedes, OF - Should provide homers and steals upon arrival to MLB.