Collette Calls: How Quickly We Forget

As play begins Monday, every team is past the halfway point of the schedule. Some teams are even a handful of games past it, with 85 games played. Please do not forget that once we get to the All-Star break after next weekend and the talk is about the "second half" of the season, because there's roughly 40 percent of the season left once games resume July 18. I am still not certain why the mid-summer classic happens so late in the schedule, but it's unlikely to change anytime soon. Just feel good about your teams if you are in contention at this point of the season, because you've made it past the actual halfway point of the season and your fantasy team is still in a meaningful place in the standings. 

Let's be a little nostalgic and look back to see what was happening as the league was rolling into the break last season and compare it to what we are seeing now as we get closer to the break, which is still another 10 games away.

Top 5 in Home Runs in the First Half in 2024 vs 2025

Raleigh is the surprise leader this season, but he did have 20 heading into the break last season, which was the 13th-best total on the list. Seeing Judge and Ohtani on both lists is not a surprise, but the absence of the other three names from last year is. Henderson, despite the fences coming in at Camden, has just 10 homers this season while Ozuna has bested him by one. Henderson missed just seven games at the start of the season with an intercostal strain, while Ozuna hasn't missed any time. Santander at least has the injury excuse going for him, but he looked terrible even before hitting the injured list in late May. Each of the players on this year's list has at least a 25 percent home run to flyball ratio, but can Suarez keep that up despite not approaching that number in a full season since the magical combination of playing in Cincinnati in 2019, the year the ball was flying? Raleigh has been well above his career rate all season yet continues to hit bombs, so how can we bet against him? Schwarber is going to need a red-hot july and August to get to that 50 homer total I predicted for him before the season, but he's at least halfway there, while Judge and Ohtani continue to be on their own level.

Top 5 in RBI in the First Half in 2024 vs 2025

I completely forgot what Bohm was doing this time last season. No wonder Phillies fans are so frustrated with the guy, at least the ones I talk to. Bohm drove in 27 the rest of 2024 and has driven in 37 this season, putting him on pace for his worst RBI total in a full season after back to back 97-RBI seasons. This is a reminder that RBI is a skill of opportunity only. Naylor drove in 38 after the break last year and has a respectable 53 so far this season, but he definitely misses Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez setting the table in front of him. Ozuna drove in 27 runs the rest of 2024 and has driven in just 40 this season as his power from the past two seasons has been AWOL. 

Suzuki is taking full advantage of his opportunities. He has already surpassed his home run totals from 2023 and 2024 and is just five RBI away from surpassing his highest RBI mark of 74 from 2023 as well. He is hitting for a lower average and is not running on the bases, but the focus on pulling the ball with elevation is working for him so far. His 2024 and 2025 FB% are nearly identical, but there is an eight percentage point gap in his HR/FB% which should lead you to take the under on him getting to 35 homers this season. Alonso is clearly enjoying Juan Soto's presence in the lineup in front of him, and if the Mets offense can wake up around Soto, Alonso could have a big second half driving in runs. 

Top 5 in Runs in the First Half in 2024 vs 2025

There are only two names to swap out here, as the disappointing offenses in Baltimore and Kansas City have impacted Henderson and Witt's run scoring capabilities. De La Cruz, despite running less often than last season, is oddly scoring more, despite some early struggles with the team offense. Tucker is a direct recipient of Suzuki's RBI production, as Soto is with Alonso. Once again, the two unicorns are doing their thing at the top of the leaderboard.

Top 5 in Steals in the First Half in 2024 vs 2025

Last season, we had two players with 30-plus steals at the break, and we may have two this season by the time we get to the break. The big issue is that it's not going to be the names we expected. Caballero is successfully defending his AL stolen base crown despite not playing every day, and I did not even include Chandler Simpson here, who also has 22 steals. De La Cruz was never going to run as freakishly often as he did last season, but at his current pace, he may not even get to 40 steals this season. Thomas was one we should have seen coming, recent injury aside. Thomas ran like a man on fire with Washington, but Cleveland put the flames out after the trade, and that trend has continued as Thomas has attempted just 11 steals since joining the Guardians. Finally, Turang is not going to steal 50 this season, but he is 17-for-24 this year despite a much higher on-base percentage and batting average. Perhaps there's a second-half surge of steals coming for him because he was 50-of-56 last year, but he simply is not running as often this season despite the increased frequency of reaching base. In fact, only Rafael Devers, J.P. Crawford and Steven Kwan have had more opportunities to steal bases, and yet Turang isn't in motion as frequently as he was last season. 

Top 5 in Batting Average (qualified) in the First Half in 2024 vs 2025

We all know batting average can be a volatile stat that lives on the whims of batted ball luck or misfortune. It's still rather amusing that noe of the five names from last year's leaderboard carried over to this year's and how Judge is on yet another leaderboard. Wilson leading mere humans in batting average as a rookie is amazing, and the breakout season for Aranda and dare I say MVP season for Pena continues, but Smith sneaking onto the batting average leaderboard is quite a surprise for a catcher. 

Top 5 in Wins in the First Half in 2024 vs 2025

Nobody is getting to Sale's 13 first-half wins this season, but that doesn't diminish what the five guys on this season's leaderboard have done. Fried and Rodon have carried the Yankees to the best record in the American League with their efforts, while Skubal just continues where he left off last year. Truthfully, the same can be said about Valdez and Wheeler. This is what you hope you are getting when you pay for aces, but Rodon is one of the best values this season because his acquisition cost was lower than the other four. Last year's leaderboard is a look back at the volatility of wins, because Wheeler is the only pitcher to appear on both sides of that board. Take solace in the fact there are no real surprise names this year on the wins leaderboard, while last year Lugo, Rodriguez and Keller exceeded expectations early. 

Top 5 in Strikeouts in the First Half in 2024 vs 2025

Have yourself a year, Crochet! This year, there are no whispers of managing his workload, but he's also the only name to be on both sides of that leaderboard. Cease has struggled this year while Glasnow, Ragans and Sale are all currently on the IL. Gore, if anything, has become this season's Ragans, jumping up in strikeouts and becoming increasingly tougher to hit even if his team cannot give him any run support. A pitcher with a 24.4 percent K-BB%, a 3.09 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP should have more than 3 wins in 17 starts. 

Top 5 in Saves in the First Half in 2024 vs 2025

Like De La Cruz and his steals, Helsley was saving games at an incredible pace last season. He has done half as much this year while nobody appears close to challenging what he and Clase were doing this time last season. It's rather amusing to see Suarez tied with Hader this year considering how each was being valued in draft season. Hoffman may have an ugly ERA at the moment, but he has rebounded nicely since a disastrous early May outing to save 11 games and even win three others since. Home runs have still been an issue, but you drafted him for saves and he is getting those for you. Who is going to be this year's Kimbrel and head into the break with a surprising number of saves but cool off after the break? Maybe it's Hoffman after all. 

Top 5 in ERA (qualified) in the First Half in 2024 vs 2025

Skubal is the only repeat name on this list, but more importantly, note how the fifth-best ERA this season would have been the second-best heading into last season's break. The offensive environment this season continues to be all over the place, as we see 22-8 games one night and then see the league post a rash of shutouts over a three-game stretch in the midst of triple-digit temperatures. I honestly give up trying to figure out what this year's offensive environment is even as the league office admits something is different about the baseball, but aces are being aces at the moment. It's also amazing that Hunter Brown's ERA is nearly half a run lower than the defending AL Cy Young winner's considering just how well the latter has pitched this season. The Astros are inevitable. 

Top 5 in WHIP (qualified) in the First Half in 2024 vs 2025

One name repeats on both sides, and it is the guy who won the Cy Young. None of the current group is actually a surprise other than deGrom making all 16 of his scheduled starts to date and working nearly as many innings already as he had the previous three seasons combined. He's not striking out as many battersa as he used to, but is anyone really complaining about the eight wins, the 2.08 ERA and the 0.88 WHIP to date while fearing the pending injury we all dread?

Simply put, past success does not guarantee future success. The leaders going into the break rarely maintain their level of production after it. Ozuna and Henderson tapered off in homers last season while Suarez, Jake Burger and Brent Rooker each hit 18 or more homers. De La Cruz had 25 fewer steals after the break while Corbin Carroll scored 61 runs after the break and was not even in the top five before it. Matt Olson and Manny Machado drove in the third- and fourth-most runs after the break, and neither were on the first-half leaderboard. Jose Berrios and Zac Gallen tied Skubal with eight wins after the break, while Blake Snell struck out more batters than anyone after the break and had the best ERA, just ahead of Bowden Francis. Finally, Kirby Yates came off the top rope for 17 saves after the break, nearly besting Clase's league-high 18. Good luck in finding this summer's surgers, because the current names on the leaderboards will change.