Minor League Barometer: Making Their Mark

While the MLB Draft is upon us, this week's article will not delve into the upside of Casey Mize or whether Kyler Murray will decide to play football or baseball (or both). We will leave that for another day, and instead focus on those players already making their mark in the minors, for better or for worse. As such, here is the latest edition of the Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Ronaldo Hernandez, C, TB – The 20-year-old backstop from Colombia has been in the Tampa Bay organization since 2015, but is getting his first taste of full-season ball this season. Hernandez has been tormenting pitchers in the rookie leagues for the past two years, and he has not disappointed thus far at Low-A Bowling Green either. Hernandez is batting .311/.363/.503 with six home runs, 40 RBI and three steals through 44 contests. Hernandez has been even better of late, hitting .405 with four home runs and 14 RBI over the last 10 games. He has the physical tools to succeed at the position, including an exceptional ability in terms of throwing out runners. Hernandez should be getting more notoriety, particularly at such a thin position.

Jeisson Rosario, OF, SD – Rosario has polish at the dish well beyond his years. The 18-year-old lefty has a .404 On-Base Percentage through 44 games for Low- A Fort Wayne. That's exactly what his OBP was in 52 games in the AZL in 2017. Rosario has also swiped 12 bases in 2018, as he is continuing to learn how to turn his raw speed into thefts on the base paths. His power is still developing, but the Padres are insistent that he will eventually hit double-digit home runs. At just 18 years of age with a superior feel in the batter's box, above-average speed and possibly even emerging power, Rosario is gaining plenty of hype in prospect circles.

Cavan Biggio, 2B, TOR – The Blue Jays seem to like prospects with famous baseball lineage, and Cavan is no exception. While Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. and Bo Bichette get most of the pub in this organization, Cavan is the son of Hall of Famer Craig Biggio and is having something of a breakout season at Double-A New Hampshire. The younger Biggio is slashing .301/.429/.630 with 13 home runs, 43 RBI and seven stolen bases. Biggio has already set a career high in home runs, and will almost certainly surpass his previous career best of 11 stolen bases before the 2018 season is completed. Perhaps Biggio's greatest asset is his plate discipline, though, as he has nearly as many walks (40) as strikeouts (50). With stellar patience at the dish, emerging power as well as the ability to swipe a bag, Cavan is looking to become the future at second for the Blue Jays.

Keston Hiura, 2B, MIL – Hiura has not stopped hitting since the 2018 season began. He slashed .320/.382/.529 with seven home runs, 23 RBI and four steals in 50 games at High-A Carolina. That hot start resulted in a recent promotion to Double-A Biloxi, where the 21-year-old has continued to swing a hot bat. He is 6-for-17 (.353) through five games at this new level. While Hiura's best trait is his ability to hit for average, he should also easily clear double-digit home runs and steals. Hiura remains one of the top hitting prospects in baseball right now; the only question may be where he ends up in the field.

CHECK STATUS

Gavin Lux, SS, LAD – Lux has rebounded from a disappointing 2017 campaign. Certainly, playing in the hitter-friendly California League hasn't hurt his cause. Lux is batting an impressive .318/.404/.520 with seven home runs, 31 RBI and seven stolen bases in 50 games for High-A Rancho Cucamonga. Lux has maintained his patience at the dish, though, so the numbers cannot be totally ignored. Still, perhaps the next jump to Double-A will be the true test as to whether Lux has really turned the corner, or if his numbers from this season are a mirage. He had the pedigree to be drafted in the first round, so the Dodgers and Lux are determined to prove this is not a fluke.

Taylor Widener, P, ARI – The offseason trade of Widener as part of the Brandon Drury/Steven Souza deal may have worked out swimmingly for the 23-year-old righty. Widener may have ended up in the bullpen for the Bronx Bombers, but instead has remained a starter for the D-Backs with rousing success. Widener has a 2.89 ERA and 73:17 K:BB in 56 innings for Double-A Jackson. Despite the jump in levels from a season ago, his walks are down, his strikeouts are up, and the opposition is hitting just .197 against him. His numbers compare favorably to staff "ace" Jon Duplantier, although Widener does not have the same build as Duplantier. Still, even Widener can remain healthy, he may be able to help Arizona sooner rather than later at the big-league level.

Seuly Matias, OF, KC – Matias has been getting some buzz due to his 18 home runs in just 42 games for Low-A Lexington. Naturally, the numbers for Matias come with the usual caveats; the teenager has 62 strikeouts as compared to just 12 walks during that time period, and is only hitting .247 on the season. His bat speed and raw power may ultimately carry the day, but Matias does come with a bit of risk based upon his impatience at the dish and seemingly all or nothing approach.

Matt Manning, P, DET – The strikeout numbers jump off the page for Manning, who has fanned 56 batters in 35.2 innings for Low-A West Michigan. A two-sport star in high school, Manning is still a work in progress, as the 6-foot-6 righty has walked 24 batters over that span. The additional baserunners have led to an ERA of 4.29, but the swing-and-miss ability is certainly evident. If Manning can continue to hone his craft and harness his command, he could skyrocket up the prospect charts. Manning is still raw, but with three pitches and the possibility to gain even more velocity on an already mid-90's heater, the 20-year-old righty is worth keeping an eye on.

DOWNGRADE

Mitch Keller, P, PIT – Let's start out by saying that Keller has been adequate this season. The 22-year-old righty has a respectable 3.60 ERA and 55:22 K:BB through 60 innings for Double-A Altoona. The problem is that Keller is supposed to be an elite pitching prospect, and the numbers are not exactly elite. He has tied a career-high in allowing seven home runs already this year, and opposing hitters have the highest BAA versus Keller since 2015. Keller remains a highly touted phenom for the Pirates, but has fallen down the ranks a bit with his mediocre start in 2018.

Estevan Florial, OF, NYY – The Yankees have refused the inquiries of many teams for the rights to Florial's extremely bright future. However, the 20-year-old has hit a bit of a roadblock after requiring surgery to fix a hamate bone injury in his right wrist. As a result, Florial will likely be out until August. He wasn't exactly scalding the ball prior to the injury, either, hitting .246/.353/.343 in 36 games for High-A Tampa. He also had just one home run over that span as compared to 47 strikeouts. Florial is still maturing, and his raw power is still not yet translating into home runs. His upside remains high, but Florial's 2018 campaign may end up being a bit of a wash.

Adbert Alzolay, P, CHC – Arguably the top pitching prospects for the Cubs after trades by the organization in recent years, the 23-year-old righty got off to a slow start in 2018. Alzolay posted a 4.76 ERA in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, as the opposition hit .281 against him. Alzolay only fanned 27 batters in 39.2 innings, showing a sharp decrease in strikeouts as compared to a season ago. The icing on the cake is that Alzolay was placed on the Disabled List last week due to a Grade 1 lat strain, and his return date is up in the air. The Cubs will certainly exercise caution with one of their better pitching phenoms. Bear in mind that Alzolay's upside is not the same as other No. 1 starters in other organizations, though.

Will Benson, OF, CLE – Benson's power from the left side is well documented, but it remains to be seen if he will be able to hit for a high enough average at the higher levels to be serviceable. Benson is hitting just .193 through 52 games at Low-A Lake County. He does have 38 walks in 52 games, but he also has 64 strikeouts over that span. Benson's nine home runs are tied for third in the Midwest League, while his batting average is near the bottom of all qualified hitters. This "feast or famine" approach to hitting has become the new norm for the big leagues, where organizations care less and less about strikeouts and making consistent contact, and more and more about the home run result. Benson has significant upside, but he also comes with a ton of risk. Just like his hit tool, Benson will be a "boom or bust" player.