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Top NBA Bets and Player Props for May 6
Andrew Nembhard over 16.5 points + assists (-128, FanDuel)
Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers
Alex Barutha: Nembhard has gone over this number in all but one playoff game. He's gone over this number in just points in four of six games. This is close to an auto-bet for me until he misses the mark two or three times in a row. The Pacers are clearly happy running offense through him. I know he's shooting over his head (52.2 FG% and 57.1 3P%), but he's taking 11.5 field-goal attempts while dishing 5.0 assists per game in the postseason. On volume, that translates to over 16.5 points + assists on an average shooting performance for Nembhard.
Myles Turner over 6.5 rebounds (-129, BetRivers)
Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers
Alex Barutha: Turner averaged 4.8 rebounds in Round 1 against the Bucks, but he was being asked to guard a floor-spacing big in Brook Lopez (for as long as Lopez remained relevant in the series). His job is different this time around, with the vast majority of his time spent in the paint matched up with Jarrett Allen. That resulted in 11 rebounds in Game 1 against the Cavs. While Cleveland shot horribly from three, that doesn't matter too much for Turner, since most threes result in long rebounds. The Cavs actually shot well from two, which typically result in shorter boards. So, I'm not too worried about a rebounding regression for Turner based on the Cavs' efficiency.
Draymond Green over 4.5 assists (-136, BetRivers)
Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves
Alex Barutha: The regular-season sample between these teams isn't great, given all occurred before the trade deadline. Green also only played in two of them. Still, I'm going to give this bet a shot. In 28.5 minutes per game against Minnesota this season, he averaged 6.5 assists on 14.0 potential dimes. Provided he doesn't get ejected, he should play more minutes in Game 1 tonight.
Max Strus O2.5 made threes (-125, BetRivers)
Cavaliers vs Pacers, 7pm ET
Nick Whalen: Strus was one of several Cavs who struggled in Game 1, as Cleveland hit just nine three-pointers – its fewest in any game this season. But the Cavs need Strus to continue to fire away, and it's likely that the shooting variance will shift back toward the Cavs in Game 2. Strus went over this number in three of four games against Miami in Round 1.
Stephen Curry O10.5 rebounds + assists (-125, Caesars)
Warriors at Timberwolves, 9:30pm ET
Nick Whalen: I don't expect the Wolves to be quite as aggressive as Houston was in blanketing Curry whenever he's on the floor, but goal No. 1 when facing Golden State is to force the ball out of Curry's hands. Whether the Warriors can knock down enough shots to cash in on potential assists is the question, but Curry should have plenty of opportunities. Like Houston, Minnesota is another strong rebounding team, but the Warriors' lack of size means everyone on the floor has to compensate, and we saw Curry average 5.9 boards per game in the Rockets series, capping it off with 10 boards in Game 7.
