2025-26 Fantasy Basketball Busts: Players to Avoid Drafting
Heading into your fantasy basketball draft, avoiding busts is just as important as finding sleepers. Don't let an inflated Average Draft Position (ADP) or last year's hype derail your season!
This 2025-2026 fantasy basketball "Do Not Draft" list highlights the high-risk players most likely to underperform their draft cost due to injury concerns, role changes, or declining efficiency. Protect your roster—and your record—by knowing which NBA stars to avoid this season.
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The Injury and Reliability Risks
Ja Morant, Grizzlies 
Morant is a perennial conversation piece in the "bust" discussion, and this year is no different. Despite his talent and a potentially larger role with Desmond Bane's absence, Morant's history is a major red flag.
- Injury Concerns: He has never played more than 67 games in a season (his rookie year) and remains one of the biggest health risks in the league.
- Roto Inefficiency: His total value ranks have been erratic. He is a sub-30% three-point shooter and not a plus free-throw shooter for a guard who lives at the line.
- Outlook: With the Grizzlies not expected to be in serious contention, there is a legitimate concern that he will not be rushed back from any potential mid-season injuries.
Lauri Markkanen, Jazz 
This is a "free space" bust for Whalen, driven less by Markkanen's per-game talent and more by the team context.
- Shutdown Risk: Markkanen's history of missing games due to injury combined with the Jazz's non-competitive outlook makes him a prime candidate for a late-season shutdown.
- Fantasy Profile: He's become primarily a points, threes, and free-throw percentage specialist, with a dip in rebounding and a poor field goal percentage (42% last year) due to his three-point volume.
Anthony Davis, Mavericks 
Drafted as high as the 6th overall pick, Anthony Davis presents significant risk for a top-10 investment.
- Durability History: Davis's history of being unable to play 65 games in back-to-back seasons is nearly a decade old, and his injury profile will only worsen with age.
- Age and Team Outlook: Now older, and with the Mavericks' contention status potentially shaky, the downside risk simply isn't worth the high draft capital. While his per-game upside is top-5, the games played will likely keep him from returning that value.
Stay up to date on who is in and who is out with RotoWire's NBA Injury Report!
Overdrafted Veterans and Rookies
LeBron James, Lakers 
Barutha isn't interested in drafting James at an aggregate ADP of 16, citing age and his changing role.
- Age and Wear-and-Tear: James is another year older, making the wear-and-tear a more prominent concern.
- Role Change: With Luka Doncic now the clear leader of the team, James' usage may drop, even if his efficiency (like field goal percentage) sees an uptick. Drafting James at this spot is too optimistic given his age and potential for rest or injury.
Cooper Flagg, Mavericks
The consensus number one overall pick is being drafted inside the top 40 in many redraft leagues, which is simply too high for a rookie.
- Rookie Performance: Historically, it's a huge ask for a rookie to return top-35/40 value immediately, especially for non-big men. Look at Paolo Banchero's rookie year: 20 points, 7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, but poor percentages (low 40s FG%, sub-30% 3P%, poor FT%). Flaws in shooting percentages and turnovers will hurt Roto value.
- Valuing the Ceiling: Drafting Flagg at his current ADP means you are already banking on his absolute ceiling from day one. You're drafting the idea of a great rookie season, not a guaranteed return.
Check out where all the players on your fantasy basketball team fit into RotoWire's Fantasy Basketball Cheat Sheet!
Role Changes and Usage Concerns
Dyson Daniels, Hawks 
Daniels' appeal stems from his excellent defensive stats, but his role is in question this season.
- Defensive Reversion: Daniels averaged an unsustainable three steals per game last year. A slight regression (e.g., to 2.7 steals) is more likely than further improvement (e.g., 3.3 steals).
- Crowded Rotation: His improved offensive volume came while key players like Jalen Johnson were out. With Johnson returning and the Hawks getting deeper (adding Kristaps Porzingis and getting Nickeil Alexander-Walker back), Daniels' minutes and usage will likely dip, tempering his overall fantasy production.
Josh Hart, Knicks 
Hart's value last year was tied to playing massive minutes, a situation that may not repeat.
- Minutes Concern: There are doubts he will maintain last season's 36-37 minutes per game, especially with potential lineup changes under new coach Mike Brown. If his minutes drop to 32-33, he will not justify a top-50 pick.
- Efficiency: He also benefited from an efficient shooting clip last year that may be difficult to replicate.
Jalen Green, Suns 
Green's fantasy value hinges entirely on his scoring volume, making him a major risk in Category Leagues.
- Category League Risk: While he could be a points league target (potentially 25 points, 5 assists), his terrible efficiency makes him a major drain in Category formats.
- Role Defined: With Devin Booker still the primary ball-handler and a crowded offense, his usage is capped, and his low efficiency (now in his fourth year) has not meaningfully improved, even with quality teammates and easy looks.
Find out who to target the rest of the way with RotoWire's NBA Projections!
Essential Fantasy Basketball Resources
Check out RotoWire's How to Play Fantasy Basketball guide for a complete walkthrough, but here is some basic advice:
- Check out custom NBA Fantasy Projections
- Look into Fantasy Basketball Mock Drafts
- Listen to a Fantasy Basketball Podcast
- Check in on Fantasy Basketball Player News
- Read Fantasy Basketball Articles
- Dive into RotoWire's Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit
- Study NBA Depth Charts
- See RotoWire's Fantasy Basketball Dynasty Rankings
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