This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Monday's slate contains 11 contests, which is a prime opportunity to begin some exposure to GPPs. This early in the season, I'll fire up a couple of single-entry options and stay away from the 20-max or 150-max tournaments. My cash-to-tournament ratio will still remain about 90:10.
SLATE OVERVIEW
Below I'll identify some games I like, and a few that I'll fade. These recommendations aren't absolutes - there are obviously worthy selections on games I don't prefer. This is just a guide that will point you toward games that will yield the highest totals and in some cases, the most interesting matchups.
GAMES TO TARGET
NO (-2) vs. GS O/U: 236
People seem all too ready to crown the Warriors as the worst team in the NBA, and based on recent outcomes, they may have a point. It's still way too early to write any team off, and for DFS purposes, they are still chock-full of talent. The Pelicans also have a lot to offer us tonight.
PHI (-4) at ATL O/U: 226.5
There are a few games right at this O/U, but this game has a lot to offer everyone. High-priced options and budget calls litter this game. Atlanta looks better than advertised and Philly has some injury concerns to monitor.
HOU (-10.5) vs. OKC O/U: 226
Sure, the spread is a little wide, but how can you resist this revenge game to end all revenge games? Russell Westbrook against his former team? Chris Paul against his former team? James Harden just being James Harden? I'm in.
GAMES TO FADE
TOR (-4.5) vs. ORL O/U: 211
Two slower-paced teams equal a lower total for both squads tonight. I would be hard-pressed to reach for anyone in this matchup, but I can think of one or two Raptors worth stashing, like Pascal Siakam ($8,700). Go on ahead and slot him in the chalky column below. He will be highly owned.
IND (-1.5) at DET O/U: 212.5
I might reach for Andre Drummond ($9,300) here, and you could potentially find some budget plays, but I wouldn't be too enthusiastic about them.
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change)
TEAMS ON BACK-TO-BACKS: Hornets, Warriors, Thunder, Trailblazers
POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN
On slates his size, you'll really have no problem at any position, as you're got 22 teams on the docket. I think the drop-offs at forward and center are far more significant than they are at the guard position. At center we start to see a significant drop-off after Draymond Green, and at forward things also get a little dicey below Draymond.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Long-term absences will be excluded.
Jrue Holiday (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
If Holiday remains out, we could see boosts for several players, but of the group, I'm highest on Josh Hart ($4,800) and J.J. Redick ($4,500).
Joel Embiid (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
Embiid is notorious for late scratches, but Al Horford ($6,200) is the obvious guy to benefit if Embiid sits. It's just something you have to monitor if you go this route.
Zach Collins (shoulder) - LIKELY OUT
Collins will leave open more opportunities for Hassan Whiteside ($7,600), provided he can stay out of foul trouble. It's also a potential boost for Mario Hezonja ($3,300) if you're feeling lucky.
Kevon Looney (hamstring) - OUT
Hamstring injuries are no joke. Unless you've been living in a fantasy-free zone, you already know that Marquese Chriss ($3,200) is the waiver-wire darling after this injury and is in line for a big boost in minutes and production.
ELITE PLAYERS
For starters, let's just pull up the OKC/HOU matchup and go from there. Russell Westbrook ($9,400) has been the bigger producer over James Harden ($10,100), yet Westbrook is $700 cheaper. I feel like the emotional Westbrook is a fan of these sorts of revenge situations, so I'm going to likely find a spot for him in a lot of lineups.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($10,600) vs. CLE
This game could get out of hand, but how can you argue against two games of 70-plus DKFP so far for Giannis? He's currently the gold standard for DFS play, but a costly play to be sure. DraftKings hasn't breached the $11K barrier yet, but that's probably less than a week away.
Nikola Jokic, DEN ($9,600) @ SAC
The loss of Marvin Bagley really dampens the Kings' ability to crash the boards, so this is an extremely favorable situation for Jokic on Monday. I don't think Dewayne Dedmon or anyone they might slide in can match Jokic's potential dominance in this matchup.
Trae Young, ATL ($9,000) vs. PHI
I know his price isn't exactly 'elite' but his production certainly has been elite-level so far. In four games last year, Young outplayed projections in three out of four. Josh Richardson is an effective defender to add to that mix but I still think Young will put up another respectable number.
EXPECTED CHALK AND CORE TARGETS
In this section, we'll look at who's popular on Monday and why they could be advantageous for your lineup builds. Obviously, all of the aforementioned elites are chalky.
D'Angelo Russell, GS ($7,700) @ NO
Russell will be primed and ready to do a bit of everything for the Warriors as they attempt to figure out how to stay relevant. People might stay away, but I'm inclined to think that people will take his ejection on Sunday as a sign to take advantage while he's a bit cheaper. I still think he's a bit costly but the Warriors desperately need his services, especially with the media talking down on their future prospects.
Brandon Ingram, NO ($7,500) vs. GS
I actually like this former Laker better than the aforementioned former Laker. Ingram has been lights-out so far and I think he'll remain that way until we see Zion Williamson take the court later this year. Even then, I think we'll see Ingram at various other positions, but until then he's a chalky lock for me on an almost daily basis.
RJ Barrett, NY ($6,100) vs. CHI
People seem to love this guy, and the rookies always get a little boost in production. His production is almost Khris Middleton-esque so far -- that nice, stable mid-30 DKFP score that you can get right around the DK median price. For what you can get from him, I think he's priced perfectly.
Dejounte Murray, SA ($6,100) vs. POR
I can already see people scrolling down, seeing Murray and saying, "Oh, yeah! That guy" and slotting him in. He's put up excellent numbers so far, and he gets a Portland team at home that's coming off a hard-fought win against Dallas on Sunday.
Kelly Oubre, Jr. PHO ($6,100) vs. UTA
Look out! The Suns might be for real this year. If Ricky Rubio ($5,300) plays I also like his chances but Oubre has established himself as the primary playmaker behind Devin Booker on this squad. He's exhibited consistent numbers between 35-40 DKFP thus far, and despite the tough defensive matchup, I think Oubre can produce similar numbers.
KEY VALUES
If you're going for something like a Westbrook/Jokic stack, you'll have to go low. So, we will endeavor to keep this section at the $5K range and below.
Coby White, CHI ($5,000) @ NY
While the rotation for the Bulls hasn't crystallized, I'm emboldened by White's usage so far, which has hovered right in the 30-minute range. The rookie out of UNC hasn't been afraid to launch the deep ball and has huge upside if he gets hot from long range.
P.J. Tucker, HOU ($4,600) vs OKC
I am pretty surprised that Tucker is still this low, but he has jumped up $700 in only two games. That's ample evidence of Tucker's enormous potential, and therefore, extreme value at this price. He's a perfect antidote to the costly shopping you might end up doing up top in a high-paced game that I've already endorsed.
Ersan Ilyasova, MIL ($3,200) vs CLE
Simply put, you probably won't find a better value on the slate, except for possibly Chriss. Not only is his usage encouraging (20.2 MPG over two games), he's also generated some excellent numbers, averaging 25,8 DKFP per game over the same span. The price/production value here is simply astronomical.
As always, check back with RotoWire before game lock to get up-to-date information about your lineups.
