DraftKings NBA: Sunday Cheat Sheet

This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.

Sunday's slate kicks off at 3:30 p.m. EDT with the MIL/MIA game.  Let's dive right into the action below.

SLATE OVERVIEW

MIL vs. MIA (-2) O/U: 220

HOU vs. LAL (-6) O/U: 223

Sunday's slate features a Milwaukee team that needs to rewrite history, as no NBA team has battled back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series. If they want to stay alive, they'll need to take the first step Sunday. Meanwhile, the Lakers need to figure out how to beat the small-ball version of the Rockets that have beaten them three times this season.

I find it extremely helpful to see how these slates went down in previous contests.  Below are the winning results of a popular GPP on 9/4.

TOTAL: 272.25

The most glaring detail above was the low total of the winning lineup, but it indicates how little upside there was in this particular slate. While guys like Crowder beat value, the other budget picks didn't do as well. In the case of a guy like Rondo, they were best utilized as a way to go with the Butler/Giannis stack and still have room for Bam Adebayo, who seems to have the Bucks' number. With Milwaukee facing elimination, I think there's cause to copy a good bit of what's happening in this lineup as Giannis will come into this do-or-die game with guns blazing. The other fascinating fact is that all the top-10 lineups faded the Rockets entirely. Let's get into those details a bit later, but you'll find that my article's core will include some of these targets.

INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR

The slate is clean, save some tags on players who are probable to play. We'll discuss how adversely one of them might be affected in the elite section below.

ELITE PLAYERS

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500) finds himself in much the same situation Luka Doncic faced a few days ago. He's compromised by an injury that visibly diluted his play, and finds himself up against it in an elimination game with that injury. The $11,500 question is: how will he respond? There's probably no bigger motivator than elimination at the hands of a lower-seeded team, and I think this represents a career-defining moment for Giannis as he tries to defy the odds. James Harden ($11,200) also needs to conjure a few more moments to set a course correction in his playoff history, but the urgency isn't there yet as they hold a 1-0 series lead. I think you have to go with Giannis based on all of the intangibles associated with this contest. 60 DKFP is what we need from Harden, and I think he'll provide that even if he has to play every minute to do it.

There's no doubt LeBron James ($10,800) and Anthony Davis ($10,600) will seek revenge in Game 2, which is why I like these two as a GPP play due to what will be lower-than-normal rostership for the duo. I prefer Davis a bit more, but I'm still going to Giannis if I'm a one-lineup guy. MME players will need to pepper in these two with 10-15 percent exposure.

The variable in this build is Jimmy Butler ($8,600). His numbers in the series have fluctuated despite getting over 6x value in two of those games. An intriguing pivot from Butler is Russell Westbrook ($8,500), who has his volume back and looked like his old self in Game 1. Butler will be the chalkier play, but stacking them as a two-guard duo is an interesting, less-popular option.

EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER OPTIONS

Bam Adebayo, MIA ($8,300) vs. MIL

I think you have to find a way to get Adebayo in, despite the obvious value at center. There are two ways to go: spend on Adebayo and fill your utility spot with the lower-cost center (mentioned below) or let the budget guy man the center spot and spend elsewhere. I don't have to make an argument for Adebayo if you've watched the first three games. The Heat have him making plays all over the court, and their pick-and-roll frequently succeeds. I'll work a good number of builds designed to fit Bam.

Khris Middleton, MIL ($8,100) vs. MIA

The Bucks need Middleton at his best if they hope to dig themselves out of this hole. If you think Milwaukee won't fold, then I like Middleton as that Bam-less second option I mentioned above. If you go with an elite and Butler, you'll still have some money to spend if you go low elsewhere and funneling it to Middleton makes a lot of sense if you believe in the Bucks. If he can recreate his Game 1 outing when he blew up in every category, the Bucks offer a good chance of winning.

Goran Dragic, MIA ($7,200) vs. MIL

Is Dragic too expensive yet? Tyler Herro's carrying a hip injury, and Dragic will be tasked with a heavy load in the backcourt even though he came back to Earth in Game 3. The number has to be 35 DKFP to justify his salary, and it might be a night where you place your salary at this point for another option based on his Game 3 performance. Dragic has been chalky in almost every bubble game he's played, and I think I'm going to go under the field with him in Game 4.

KEY VALUES

Brook Lopez, MIL ($5,800) vs. MIA

Lopez is the budget center I mentioned, and you really can't go lower than this. You can't consider McGee or Howard, and the production for Houston in the frontcourt is spread too thin. Lopez could be the main guy at C or someone you fill with the UTIL, but I really can't envision going somewhere other then Lopez and Adebayo at this position. With a floor around 30 DKFP, Lopez is just too reliable to overlook at this salary. He'll be widely covered, but roster percentage isn't too big of a concern when the slate is this small.

Eric Bledsoe, MIL ($5,600) vs. MIA

We're now entering the area that will make or break most lineups. While Jae Crowder ($5,600) looks attractive at the same price, it's worth taking Milwaukee's singular predicament into account when comparing the two players. Much like Middleton, the Bucks need someone besides Giannis to make a huge impact and Bledsoe has failed to give us a game worth mentioning in this series. I think there's no better time for it than when the Bucks face an early exit. I'd be thrilled with 30 DKFP and if they elect to run Bledsoe for a few more minutes, I believe he can get there.

Rajon Rondo, LAL ($3,300) vs. HOU

If Rondo plays, he's a cinch to beat value. If you hear even an inkling about a minutes restriction, then you need to find a way to pivot over to Alex Caruso ($3,800). The best insurance is to leave about $4k on the table at the G for the second matchup. You can then pivot to Caruso, KCP or Markieff Morris, or even Austin Rivers if you want to go contrarian. Unfortunately, they are only allowing Andre Iguodala as a SF, otherwise we could keep him in the spot and then pivot around the utility position instead.

Also consider: Eric Gordon, HOU ($5,900) vs. LAL

That's it for Sunday! As always, check back with us at RotoWire before lock for the latest information. Enjoy the remainder of your holiday weekend!