FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

The Western Conference Finals shift to Dallas on Sunday night after Golden State had to fight back throughout the second half of Game 2 to escape with a 126-117 comeback win. With such a high-scoring affair, there were multiple useful DFS performances on either side, but each team's solid defense could bring both offenses down to earth a bit in Game 3. 

With just one game on the ledger, we're dealing with FanDuel's single-game contest rosters, which are comprised as follows: 

· MVP - Garners points at 2x the normal rate)

· STAR - Garners points at 1.5x the normal rate)

· PRO - Garners points at 1.2x the normal rate)

· Two Utility spots - Garner points at normal rate)

With the pricing also being different than in conventional FanDuel contests on multi-game slates and top players inevitably headed for heavy rostering, there are definitely strategic elements particular to single-game lineups.

Finding key value plays for the two utility spots is undoubtedly key, as it enables you to fill out the multiplier spots with some of the top projected producers. 

Slate Overview

Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks (-2.5)

Projected total: 218.5 points

A line that positions the Mavericks as narrow favorites is certainly a bit eye-catching given the outcome of the first two games of the series. While there's little doubt Dallas can give the Warriors a competitive game, it remains to be seen if they can hold on for a full four quarters against a team whose starts are so battle-tested in high-stakes postseason environments.

Each team's frontline players have proven capable of producing in this matchup, however, so even though the projected total implies oddsmakers are expecting less of a shootout than Game 2, there should still be plenty of strong individual efforts. 

Positional Breakdown

FanDuel single-game rosters don't have traditional positions that match those on a starting five, so we'll instead break down some candidates for the top three multiplier positions instead: 

MVP (2x): Luka Doncic ($16,500) and Stephen Curry ($15,500) remain as the clear-cut top candidates for this spot following their Game 2 efforts. 

Doncic bounced back from a rough shooting effort in Game 1 to post 70 FD points in Game 2 on a 12-for-23 tally from the field. He also averaged 31.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 1.5 steals across four games versus Golden State during the regular season. 

Curry shot over 50.0 percent in Game 2 for the first time since Game 3 of the semifinal-round series against the Grizzlies, leading to 46.1 FD points. He also recorded 44.4 FD points in just 31 minutes in Game 1 and should naturally spearhead the Warriors' attack again in enemy territory Sunday. 

STAR (1.5x): Whichever of the two mega-stars mentioned above doesn't make your MVP spot is naturally the prime candidate here, but a case could also reasonably be made for Jalen Brunson ($13,500), Klay Thompson ($12,500) or Andrew Wiggins ($12,000). 

Brunson went off for his second best fantasy-point tally of the postseason in Game 2 (44.9) and has now cleared 30 FD points in 11 playoff games overall. Four of those instances have also come in the last five games, and he's now shooting a solid 46.9 percent overall in the playoffs. 

Thompson was sharp again in Game 2 with a 60.0 percent success rate from the floor, but he only took 10 shots overall. He still netted 27.3 FD points across his 37 minutes and is now shooting 39.6 percent from three-point range this postseason while averaging 32.7 FD points.

Wiggins is expected to play through some ankle soreness and scored over 30 FD points in five of his last six postseason games, including 34.5 in Game 2 despite shooting just 5-for-14 from the floor.  

PRO (1.2x): Whichever of the trio mentioned for the STAR position is certainly a consideration for this spot, as are Draymond Green ($11,500) and Jordan Poole ($11,000)

Green has seen a $1.5K salary drop from Game 2, as he only produced an underwhelming 16.7 FD points across 28 minutes on Friday night. However, he'd generated 43 and 33.3 FD points in the prior pair of games, so the upside is certainly there for him to pay off on the more modest salary.   

Poole has now scored 27.9 and 34.7 FD points in the first two games of the series after a pair of lackluster outings during the latter portion of the series against the Grizzlies and is now averaging 31.5 FD points while shooting 52.4 percent. 

Injury Situations to Monitor

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, as the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written (usually late morning Eastern Time), check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate. 

Andrew Wiggins, GSW (ankle): QUESTIONABLE 

Despite the questionable tag, Wiggins is expected to play and fill his usual starting role. If he were to have a setback, Otto Porter would likely be the primary beneficiary. 

Other notable injuries:

Andre Iguodala, GSW (neck): OUT 

Gary Payton, GSW (elbow): OUT 

Tim Hardaway, DAL (foot): OUT 

Elite Players

The two highest-salaried players on the slate are Luka Doncic ($16,500) and Stephen Curry ($15,500). As already detailed in Positional Breakdown section, each player is capable of elite production and each should see very heavy usage Friday. 

Expected Chalk

 With only one game on the ledger, the likes of Jalen Brunson ($13,500), Klay Thompson ($12,500), Andrew Wiggins ($12,000) and Jordan Poole ($11,000) should also be very popular. 

Key Values   

Note: On a multi-game slate, I typically try to highlight players that would be considered under-the-radar plays in this section. Naturally, with such a limited player pool, there will be very few low-rostered players that are likely to also be viable from a DFS perspective, so I'll instead focus on two of the best candidates to provide a strong return relative to salary for the two Utility spots in single-game lineups: 

Kevon Looney, GSW ($10,500) 

Looney extended a strong run of production to three games with an outstanding performance in Game 2, posting 38.4 FD points on the strength of a 21-point, 12-rebound double-double that saw him take an uncharacteristically high 14 shots from the field. While the offensive involvement may not repeat itself again this postseason, Looney has already amply proven capable of delivering through multiple categories on the stat sheet. The veteran big man is now averaging 28.2 FD points over the last five postseason games, making him a very viable value play once again despite a slight bump in salary. 

Reggie Bullock, DAL ($10,000) 

Bullock is a quintessential tournament play, and his three-point prowess can allow him to rack up a strong fantasy score on any given night. The veteran sharpshooter's most recent such display came in Game 2, when he drained six treys on the way to 26.6 FD points in 44 minutes. He also recorded 21.6 and 33.4 FD points in two of the prior three outings, and he's averaging 22.7 FD points overall in the postseason while shooting 40.0 percent from behind the arc. 

Dorian Finney-Smith, DAL ($8,500) 

Finney-Smith can get hot from behind the arc in his own right, and he sunk a trio of threes in Game 2 on his way to 23.6 FD points. Finney-Smith logged a robust 42 minutes in the game. With an average of 37.8 minutes overall in the postseason and a 42.4 percent from three-point range in that sample, he's certainly worthy of consideration as a salary-saving option, especially since he also averaged 14.3 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.3 assists while shooting 51.2 percent, including 52.6 percent from three-point range, in four regular-season meetings against Golden State. 

Other value plays to consider: Spencer Dinwiddie, DAL ($9,000)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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