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Best Bets
Al Horford over 2.5 steals + blocks (+135) vs. 76ers
DraftKings, 4:04 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Horford's hands have been active on defense these entire playoffs, and he's racked up at least one defensive stat in each of the past seven games, averaging 2.6 blocks and 1.4 steals during this stretch. They need him against Joel Embiid. He's averaging 2.5 deflections and 9.3 two-point contests per game in this series, so the advanced numbers back up the over on 2.5 "stocks" as well. If you want a lower bar to clear, I'd endorse Horford over 0.5 steals at -145 as well.
Al Horford over 1.5 threes (-175) and Malcolm Brogdon over 1.5 threes (-164) vs. 76ers
PointsBet, FanDuel, 4:22 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Horford and Brogdon continue to get uncontested looks from beyond the arc. These numbers are heavily juiced for that reason, but I don't mind. In the past two games alone, Brogdon and Horford have each shot exactly 13 uncontested triples, and the story was the same in Games 1 and 2.
Cameron Payne under 5.5 assists (-145) at Denver
DraftKings, 4:34 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Payne averaged 5.0 assists in the two games without Chris Paul in Phoenix, but that was on only 6.5 potential assists per game. That ratio simply isn't sustainable, so I'm banking on regression to the mean.
Jamal Murray O25.5 PTS vs. Suns
DraftKings Sportsbook, 2pm CT
Nick Whalen: For the most part in these playoffs, backing star players' points overs has been a fruitful strategy. That's been true for Murray, who has at least 28 points in four of his last five games, with the one outlier coming in a thoroughly strange Game 2 when he finished with just 10 points on 3-of-15 shooting. With Denver suddenly needing to win Game 5, I think we get an aggressive version of Murray from the start. Thus far in the playoffs, Murray is averaging 21.9 field goal attempts per game – even with a below-average shooting night, that should be enough to propel Murray past 25.5.
