NBA Playoffs: Finals DFS Preview

NBA Playoffs: Finals DFS Preview

Warriors vs. Raptors

Regular-season series: TOR 2-0, +23 points

Warriors' Top Fantasy Performers

Playoffs

  1. Kevin Durant (OUT for Game 1), 50.5 FP in 39.1 MIN
  2. Stephen Curry, 43.6 FP in 37.1 MIN
  3. Draymond Green, 43.6 FP in 37.7 MIN

Vs. Toronto in Regular Season

  1. Kevin Durant, 56.6 FP in 38.1 MIN
  2. Draymond Green, 29.5 FP in 24.8 MIN (one game)
  3. Jonas Jerebko, 27.6 FP in 28.1 MIN

Raptors' Top Fantasy Performers

Playoffs

  1. Kawhi Leonard, 50.7 FP in 38.7 MIN
  2. Pascal Siakam, 35.1 FP in 36.1 MIN
  3. Kyle Lowry, 32.5 FP in 37.3 MIN

Vs. Golden State in Regular Season

  1. Kawhi Leonard, 56.1 FP in 44.1 MIN (one game)
  2. Kyle Lowry, 49.8 FP in 39.4 MIN
  3. Serge Ibaka, 35.1 FP in 32.8 MIN

Four Factors Playoff Ranks

Toronto

 Offense (Rank)Defense (Rank)
eFG%51.1 (T-5th)48.0 (2nd)
TOV%11.1 (4th)13.6 (3rd)
ORB%/DRB%17.5 (14th)77.6 (7th)
FT/FTA.214 (11th).231 (11th)

Golden State

 Offense (Rank)Defense (Rank)
eFG%55.6 (1st)52.0 (11th)
TOV%12.7 (9th)13.6 (4th)
ORB%/DRB%25.8 (3rd)76.6 (9th)
FT/FTA.225 (6th).233 (12th)

Analysis

The strength of Toronto throughout the playoffs has been its defense, which has primarily succeed by forcing bad shots and turnovers. Golden State has been prone to turning the ball over, but the Warriors have also been the most efficient team from the field in the postseason, making up for many of those mistakes. And the Warriors have been an elite offensive rebounding team, creating extra possessions for the ones it gives up. The Raptors haven't been an easy team to grab offensive boards against, though. On paper, one squad often cancels out what the other is good at. The result could be a gritty, close series.

The Raptors won the regular-season series, but not without some asterisks. The last game played between these teams was on Dec. 12, meaning the post-deadline Raptors haven't faced the Warriors. And Kawhi Leonard, Steph Curry and Draymond Green each only played one game in the series, making it tough to draw too many conclusions.

On the topic of injuries, let's move to the Warriors. Durant won't play in Game 1 -- he's set to be evaluated Wednesday. Over the past five games without Durant, here are the Warriors' Top-5 fantasy producers

  1. Curry, 52.6 FP
  2. Green, 50.1 FP
  3. Thompson, 36.7 FP
  4. Kevon Looney, 25.9 FP
  5. Andre Iguodala, 23.3 FP

It's hard to imagine that formula changing dramatically for the duration of Durant's absence, especially since it's all being done on sustainable shooting splits. But who will get the Kawhi treatment? In the regular season, not surprisingly, it was Durant. He was shockingly unfazed, scoring 21 points on 11 shots across 46 possessions guarded by The Claw. With Durant out, Leonard might chase around Thompson, forcing Curry to do it all by himself. Or it's possible Leonard will check Curry -- they didn't face each other once during the regular season, so we don't have data for that possibility.

Durant and Thompson were both given the responsibility of guarding Leonard during the regular season, but neither did particularly well to stop him, as Leonard scored a combined 28 points on 19 shots against the duo. Lowry was a monster against the Warriors, totaling 33 points, 24 assists, 13 rebounds, six steals and four threes. It's possible he gets freed up again in this series, as much of the defensive attention may be paid to Leonard and Siakam considering the Warriors' best defenders are forwards.

This might also be a series where Gasol can thrive. He spent the first three rounds matched up against the size Nikola Vucevic, Joel Embiid and Brook Lopez. Now, he'll be against Kevon Looney or Draymond Green most of the time. It's possible the Warriors try to utilize Bogut as well. Still, this figures to be the easiest matchup of the postseason for Gasol, and he could be a sneaky DFS play for Game 1.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Alex Barutha plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel Username: unclestosh99, DraftKings Username: Roto_Alex.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Barutha
Alex is RotoWire's Chief NBA Editor. He writes articles about daily fantasy, year-long fantasy and sports betting. You can hear him on the RotoWire NBA Podcast, Sirius XM, VSiN and other platforms. He firmly believes Robert Covington is the most underrated fantasy player of the past decade.
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