This article is part of our Daily Games Cheat Sheet series.
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TEAM ANALYSIS
Opponent I'm Least Confident Playing Against
Sacramento Kings at Minnesota Timberwolves: There is no such thing as a "defense to avoid" when there are only four teams to choose from. There is, however, an opponent I'm least confident playing against. The Timberwolves went 1-14 last month, and eight of those losses were by double-digits. They faced an average halftime deficit of 7.3 points during December, second worst in the league. In daily games, it's hard to trust any starter going against the Timberwolves, since the game is likely to be over long before the fourth quarter clock hits 0.
Offenses to Use
Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls: The problem with blowout-risks is that they mess up the predictability of a rotation. I'd like to dedicate this section to the Timberwolves, who face a Kings squad that rates as a favorable opponent at every position except center. But it's not just the winning teams that pull their starters late in games – the Timberwolves tend to pull theirs late in big losses, too. The Bulls then inherit this section by process of elimination. The Nuggets are statistically easiest where the Bulls are most consistent – at shooting guard, power forward, and center.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: None
Second game of a back-to-back: Sacramento Kings
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
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Point Guard
Ty Lawson, DEN (at CHI), PG, ($9,700): Lawson has been one of the more consistent values on DraftKings this year. The Bulls are an intimidating matchup, but less-so at point guard than elsewhere. With so few options to choose from, anyone as reliable as Lawson has added desirability.
Other suggestions: Ray McCallum, SAC (at MIN), PG, ($3,000)
Shooting Guard
Jimmy Butler, CHI (vs DEN), SG, ($8,800): After briefly falling behind Lou Williams, Cory Joseph, and Luc Mbah a Moute, Butler has reclaimed his status as DraftKing's most consistently profitable player. He has posted a p/K (points per $1,000 salary) above 4.8 in 22 of his 30 appearances. His 5.7 average p/K is fourth in the league. Draymond Green is the only other player with an average salary above $6,000 whose average p/K is above 5.0. Green's is 5.2.
Other suggestions: None.
Small Forward
Wilson Chandler, DEN (at CHI), SF, ($6,300): Chandler has been Denver's second-leading scorer over the past seven games, trailing only Lawson. Before leaving Wednesday's game early after taking a knee to the quad, Chandler had averaged 17.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.0 block, and 1.3 threes in 40 minutes per game over in last three outings.
Other suggestions: Shabazz Muhammad, MIN (vs SAC), SF, ($6,900)
Power Forward
Pau Gasol, CHI (vs DEN), PF, ($8,900): Gasol has slowed down, compared to his production a few weeks ago. Nonetheless, he still managed 14.9 points, 8.9 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 2.4 blocks over the second half of December. Thursday, he faces a favorable matchup against the Nuggets, who rank as the second-most desirable opponent for a power forward on DraftKings.
Other suggestions: Taj Gibson, CHI (vs DEN), PF, ($5,600)
Center
Gorgui Dieng, MIN (vs SAC), C, ($6,700): Generally speaking, the Timberwolves spread the minutes around more during blowouts. That doesn't apply to Dieng, who has seen a remarkably consistent workload over his past eight games, playing between 33-37 minutes in every game but one.
Joakim Noah, CHI (at DEN), C, ($7,400): A little more expensive than I'd like, but that's partially due to the favorability of facing the Nuggets – DraftKings usually charges more for very favorable matchups. The Nuggets are the second-most desirable opponent for centers, as well as for power forwards. There are only eight healthy center options available Thursday, and the really cheap options are completely unreliable, which makes Noah's added cost easier to bear.
Other suggestions: None. If I trusted the Timberwolves to keep the game competitive, I would have recommend DeMarcus Cousins instead of Noah. But I don't trust the Timberwolves.
INJURY REPORT
Out
Doug McDermott (knee)
Randy Foye (quad)
Danilo Gallinari (knee)
JaVale McGee (leg)
Ricky Rubio (ankle)
Nikola Pekovic (ankle)
Kevin Martin (wrist)
Eric Moreland (shoulder)
Game-Time Decision
Kirk Hinrich (hamstring) is a game-time decision.
Darrell Arthur (leg) is a game-time decision.
Wilson Chandler (quad) is a game-time decision.
Ramon Sessions (back) is a game-time decision. He missed Wednesday's game.
