DFS College Basketball: Saturday Preview

DFS College Basketball: Saturday Preview

This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.

Main Slate

A loaded 10-game slate starts the day at DraftKings, while FanDuel is starting to follow suit. The bulk of this column is identifying games where we can get stable-to-upside pieces to build around, contrasting that against lower-tier games where we know we want to fade the top options. That's not always a winning proposition, but if building around the right core, we'll find the right blend more times than not.

Targets

Charlie Moore, G, DePaul ($7,600 DK)

We'll assume this game is played, which offers Moore as an upside play a bit further down the salary list. The Blue Demons have about a 70-point implied total and Moore is the focal point. We'll give him a pass for his stinker against defensive UConn, noted below, as the Hall aren't on that level, ranking 70th defensively and 246th in tempo. Moore's usage at this salary is ideal.

Allen Flanigan, G/F, Auburn ($6,700 DK, $6,200 FD)

Flanigan offers position flexibility and has only one game with less than 21 DKP. He contributes across the board and should shoot better than the 2-of-8 clip he recently posted, which lead to this slightly decreased salary. Alabama wants to push tempo, and if we choose the side of them dictating, Flanigan's floor is stable while carrying 5x upside.

Wendell Moore, G, Duke ($5,500 DK)

Moore has always been long on talent, but short on opportunity. It's entirely possible he's yanked for a few misses or mistakes, but Duke doesn't have a lot of other options. He's coming off a career performance and this may be the last chance to get in before his price soars.  Wake Forest checks in at 131st in defensive efficiency, the Blue Devils have nearly an 80-point implied total, and Moore is at worst the third scoring option. 4-5x is the expectation.

Fades

Emanuel Miller, F, Texas A&M ($8,300 DK, $4,300 FD)

Miller has had a 24.5 DKP floor throughout the year, so there's certainly stability. But the Aggies are 10-point dogs and have an implied total of about 60. Tennessee is second in adjusted defense and 292nd in tempo, per KenPom.  He could rebound his way into 4x, but the Vols front line suggests this is a spot to pass. The price disparity across sites is surprisingly huge, making him hard to fade at FanDuel, and impossible to justify at DraftKings.

Sam Hauser, F, Virginia ($7,500 DK)

Hauser is starting to play like many expected in preseason; and it's escalated his salary as a result. Yes, he's averaged 36.1 DKP in his last two, but he met that number only twice in his previous six. The recent results have led to a $800 price increase, and in a game with a 131.5 point total, it's hard to justify this salary even if he goes off as a one-man show.

Greg Brown, F, Texas ($7,300 DK, $5,900 FD)

Brown flashed in a two-game stretch, averaging 43.8 DKP, but he's fallen back to earth (21.7 DKP) in his last two, and his salary hasn't fallen back to usability. The Mountaineers remain a physical defense despite attrition, ranking 20th in defensive efficiency, and this game profiles as a close, low-scoring affair. Brown will need double-digit boards to provide stability, something he's done only three times, and foul concerns are too great to trust in this spot.

Afternoon Slate

A five-game slate with some heavily disparaging totals across the board. The big story for this set of games is James Bouknight ($8,500 DK), who left the Huskies' last game due to a hyperextended elbow. The low total in that contest doesn't make him a target, but a potential absence would open a lot of value.

Targets

Olivier Sarr, F, Kentucky ($6,800 DK)

Sarr is always a risk because of foul trouble, but the Wildcats seem to finally be playing through him, averaging 39.6 DKP in his last two outings. Florida is a guard-heavy lineup and play at a reasonable enough pace (78th). So long as he stays on the court, this is a prime matchup for Sarr to use his size to success.

Marcus Garrett, G, Kansas ($6,300 DK, $6,100 FD)

The Jayhawks are the slate's second-largest favorite by just a point less, and this game comes at the slate's highest total, so we know we want at least a piece. Garrett could come at minimal usage after missing his last game due to a head injury, and if he doesn't suit up, Dajuan Harris ($4,600 DK) is an easy pivot. But if he does, his floor is 3x, and while there may not be a 5x ceiling, there's great stability.

Fades

Chuck Harris, G, Butler ($7,100 DK)

Maybe Harris is a dart throw for GPPs, but there's no reason to think we can bank on him. He's topped 20 DKP just twice despite scoring at least 10 points in all but two of the Bulldogs' outings. Connecticut ranks 32nd in defensive efficiency and 330th in tempo, and Harris has seen a meteoric price increase, as he was $4,600 at DK on Dec. 21. 3x would surprise.

Mike McGuirl, G, Kansas State ($6,900 DK)

The Wildcats are 8.5-point underdogs, and this game has a modest 140 point total, giving them an implied 65ish-point total. McGuirl has topped 4x return in four consecutive games, but had done so just twice in his previous six. Mix in the Pokes' 40th-ranked defensive efficiency rating, and there's next to no upside compared to the options above.

Evening Slate

It's a small, three-game Pac-12 slate to wrap up the night. The USC-Arizona State game has a higher total by nine points, so stacking seams reasonable, but so does buying secondary targets and going with primary options in the other contests.

Targets

Remy Martin, G, Arizona State ($6,100 DK)

We assume Martin is back following the death of his grandmother, and he's priced down $2,700 at DK from his last appearance. He has 40-point upside, and as mentioned, plays in the slate's highest total contest. Pairing him with a Trojan mentioned below just opens so many options.

Tahj Eaddy, G, USC ($5,300 DK)

Eaddy seems likely to be incredibly chalky, but how do you pass at this price? He's bettered 4x five times to date, and while the Trojans offer plenty of other options, Eaddy opens so many other choices in your lineup build. Drew Peterson ($6,400 DK) presents similarly, and may come with lower usage for GPP purposes.

Fades

Bennedict Mathurin, G/F, Arizona ($6,900 DK)

Maybe he's worth a GPP dart toss, but Mathurin has topped 25 DKP just twice all season, going for single-digits at the same rate. He doesn't start and has seen more than 25 minutes only once. With UCLA ranking 60th in defensive efficiency and 340th in tempo, there's no justification for this salary.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Chris Bennett plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: k30kittles, DraftKings: k30kittles.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Bennett
Bennett covers baseball, college football and college basketball for RotoWire. Before turning to fantasy writing, he worked in scouting/player development for the Atlanta Braves and Montreal Expos. He's also a fan of the ACC.
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