This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
South Dakota St. (+2½) vs Providence
Providence managed to skate through the regular season without too many bruises, but don't let its record fool you. The Friars currently have the highest 'luck' rating among all D1 teams, according to KenPom, so it's only a matter of time before it comes back to bite them. Providence got crushed by Creighton, 85-58, in the Big East tournament, possibly an indicator of things to come. Providence relied mostly on its offense for success, ranking No. 32 in the country in adjusted efficiency rating, with its defense proving to be its weakness, ranking No. 80 among all D1 teams in adjusted efficiency. This is great news for South Dakota State, which has an explosive offense, ranking No. 12 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Furthermore, The Jackrabbits also rank number one in the country in effective field goal percentage in addition to three-point percentage. They also rank No. 10 in two-point field goal percentage, giving them a well-rounded attack. South Dakota State's defense isn't great, so this game will likely turn into a shootout. I'll gladly take the points and the better offensive team in this matchup.
Memphis vs Boise St (+2½)
Boise State was the best rebounding team in the Mountain West this season, ranking number one in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates during conference play. Moreover, its overall defensive rebounding rate ranks number five in the country, which is very noteworthy because Memphis ranks number five among all D1 teams in offensive rebounding rate, effectively neutralizing Memphis' best offensive attribute. Interestingly enough, Memphis doesn't put as much effort on the defensive glass, ranking in the bottom 20 percent of the country with its defensive rebounding rate. Boise State should see plenty of put-back opportunities considering its significant advantage on the offensive glass. These teams are otherwise relatively balanced, both recording the second-best offensive and defensive efficiency ratings in their conferences during conference play. However, we do have one more major red flag we can't overlook with Memphis -- turnovers. The Tigers have the highest steal rate allowed on offense among all D1 teams, so it's almost a sure bet that they'll give the ball away at least a few times in this game. Teams usually struggle to win when they lose the turnover battle, another reason to fade Memphis.
Marquette vs North Carolina (-4)
North Carolina is playing its best basketball lately, winning 12 of its last 15 games. Marquette, on the other hand, is going in the wrong direction, playing its worst basketball over the past month, losing six of its last 10. Aside from general team trends, this game is a matchup nightmare for Marquette. The Golden Eagles are easily the worst rebounding team in their conference, posting the worst offensive and defensive rebounding rates in the Big East during conference play. North Carolina, led by Armando Bacot, is one of the best rebounding teams, impressively sporting the second-highest defensive rebounding rate in the country. All in all, the Tar Heels should dominate the boards in this one, helping them cruise to a decisive victory.
St. Peter's vs Kentucky - Under 132
St. Peter's will probably lose this game, obviously, but if it pulls off the shocker, it will be because of its defense. The Peacocks currently rank No. 34 in defensive adjusted efficiency, giving them a decent chance at slowing down Kentucky's potent offense. The main reason why St. Peter's will probably lose, and the other reason for taking the under, is because of its offense. The Peacocks rank No. 259 in offensive adjusted efficiency, so they're almost guaranteed to struggle against a Kentucky defense that ranks No. 27 in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings. St. Peter's also prefers playing at a slow pace, logging the third-slowest tempo in the MEAC during conference play, another element that will help the under cash. There's always a chance Kentucky's offense will sabotage this bet, but ultimately I'm trusting that the two defenses involved will keep this a low-scoring game, hitting the under in the process.
Vermont (+5½) vs Arkansas
Vermont is a team with exceptional fundamentals. The Catamounts have the highest team defensive rebounding rate in the country, in addition to recording the third-highest two-point field goal percentage among all D1 teams. And its interior defense is excellent as well, allowing opponents to make just 45 percent of two-point attempts, the 21st lowest percentage among all D1 teams. This could pose a major problem for Arkansas because the Razorbacks barely made 30 percent of their three-point shots this season, ranking in the bottom 15 percent among all D1 teams. Given this matchup and the nature of Vermont, this game should be a close one, so I'll take the points in a possible upset.
