This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The stakes rise quite a bit higher on Friday's college hoops slate, as many teams are now entering the semis or quarter-finals of the power conference tournaments. Here are my predictions for a trio of games featuring title contenders.
Pittsburgh 
vs. North Carolina 
The Panthers were slow out of the gate when the conference season started, limping to a 1-5 league record by mid-January. The season was on the verge of disaster, but then Pittsburgh caught fire and hasn't looked back. The Panthers have won 12 of their last 15 games and have defeated Duke (on the road), N.C. State (on the road), Virginia (on the road), Virginia Tech, and more recently dismantled Boston College, 90-65, before winning its first game in the ACC tournament against Wake Forest. And according to Action Network, they have also covered the spread in 12 of their last 15 games, including their last four straight. This team is playing well, any way you look at it.
Not to be outdone by their opponent, however, the Tar Heels have seemingly been locked in for the entire season, recording a league record of 17-3, good for the regular season conference title. Now, they need two more wins to present a strong case for the fourth number-one seed in the NCAA tournament. North Carolina has proven it's an elite team, but it's still been vulnerable during the season, losing to the likes of Georgia Tech and Syracuse, two teams that are noticeably weaker than Pittsburgh.
It's always hard to bet against a team like North Carolina, but Pittsburgh has a fair shot at keeping the game close for three reasons. First, the Panthers have the size and skillset to match the Tar Heels. Pittsburgh ranks 10th in the nation in average height, according to KenPom, and it recorded the third-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the ACC during conference play while recording the fifth-highest mark on the defensive side. This is important because North Carolina ranks first in the conference in rebounding percentage at both ends, so Pittsburgh should be able to hold its own and collect its fair share of boards.
Another area where Pittsburgh is strong is turnovers. The Panthers logged the second-best offensive turnover percentage in the ACC during the conference season, while the Tar Heels had the third-worst defensive turnover percentage, which should help the former get off a shot attempt on most of their possessions. At the other end, Pittsburgh has also improved its defensive turnovers during league play, ranking sixth in the conference in that category, equal standing to North Carolina's offense in the same stat.
The third category in which Pittsburgh has an edge is long-range scoring. The Panthers are the league's most effective three-point shooting team, making over 36 percent of shots from behind the arc while attempting them at the highest frequency, yielding the highest percentage of points off three-pointers in the ACC. North Carolina is a solid shooting team in its own right, but it's making under 35 percent of three-pointers since the conference season started, and it doesn't shoot them at a high frequency.
Given the areas where the Panthers excel and how they match up against the Tar Heels, I'm betting Pittsburgh will find a way to keep the game close. I'm taking the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Pittsburgh +8.5
Texas Tech 
vs. Houston 
In comparing these two teams against each other, the biggest advantage in the game easily belongs to Houston's offense. The Cougars recorded the second-highest offensive efficiency rating in the Big 12 during the conference season, and they're facing a Red Raider defense that ranks ninth in defensive efficiency. The discrepancy on the glass is even larger, where Houston has the second-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the league, and Texas Tech has the second-worst mark on the defensive end. Houston also has the best offensive turnover percentage in the Big 12, with Texas Tech ranking ninth on defense, so it's easy to see how Houston will likely see a high amount of second-chance opportunities on Friday.
Texas Tech will undoubtedly have its hands full in breaking down the conflict at the other end of the court. The Red Raiders are stronger on offense, but unfortunately, they have to try and overcome the toughest defense in the nation. For virtually the entire season, Houston has sat atop KenPom's overall efficiency chart, thanks mostly to its world-class defense. In addition to ranking first in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, the Cougars rank in the top three of all D1 teams in effective field goal percentage allowed, defensive turnover percentage, two-point field goal percentage allowed, block percentage, and steal percentage. Simply put, Houston is the best defensive team in the country and it's not close.
The Red Raiders traveled down to Houston in mid-January and the game was hardly competitive. The Cougars held a nine-point halftime lead and won by a final score of 77-54. During the game, Houston had three different runs where it outscored Texas Tech by at least 11 points over several minutes. Based on the fact that the Cougars still look as sharp as they did on that day a couple of months ago, I like their odds of earning another decisive victory. I'm laying the points with Houston in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Houston -8.5
Texas A&M 
vs. Kentucky 
By many accounts, Texas A&M is not likely to hear its name called on Selection Sunday if the season were to end at this moment. Thankfully for the Aggies, they still have an opportunity to punch their ticket. It won't be easy, it never is, but Texas A&M has found a nice rhythm over the past couple of weeks, now riding a four-game winning streak. The Aggies had a few letdowns throughout the year, but they collected several high-quality wins against elite teams, suggesting a high ceiling. Texas A&M has defeated the likes of Iowa State, Kentucky, and Tennessee, all of which are in line to receive a high seed on Sunday.
Kentucky, meanwhile, has arrived at this point using a familiar formula. Namely, a loaded freshman class with a savvy upperclassman or two to help ease the growing pains. The Wildcats didn't have many of those moments this season, but they still had a few low points, such as losing at home to UNC Wilmington or losing at LSU just a few weeks ago.
When the Aggies have the ball, they don't typically shoot a high percentage, but they're excellent in most other important areas. Specifically, Texas A&M has the highest offensive rebounding percentage among all D1 teams, an important note because Kentucky ranks 226th in defensive rebounding percentage. Texas A&M is also careful with the ball, logging the second-best offensive turnover percentage in the SEC during conference play, while Kentucky isn't very aggressive defensively, ranking third-worst in defensive turnover percentage. A third area where the Aggies have a noticeable advantage is at the charity stripe, where the Aggies rank third in the league in free-throw attempt rate, again noteworthy because the Wildcats rank ninth in the same category on defense.
When the Wildcats have the ball, their potent offensive attack will face a stiff challenge in the form of the Aggies' defense. Kentucky undoubtedly has impressive scoring numbers, but Texas A&M has been nearly as great at getting stops. The Aggies rank third in the league in defensive efficiency, fourth in effective field goal percentage allowed, and first in defensive rebounding percentage and free-throw attempt rate allowed.
Texas A&M hosted Kentucky in mid-January, and the Aggies won a close game in overtime, 97-92. The Aggies led most of the game, and with under three minutes left, KenPom gave them an 87 percent chance of winning. The Wildcats still managed to send the game into overtime, but the Aggies clamped down in the extra period and outscored them eight to three. For these reasons, I'm betting we'll see another tight game that comes down to the final minute. I'm taking the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas A&M +3.5
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Pittsburgh +8.5
- Houston -8.5
- Texas A&M +3.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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