This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Saturday brings us another intriguing slate of college hoops action as the ACC and Big Ten conference seasons tip off for a few teams. Here are my best bets for the day.
Michigan at 
Oregon
Michigan enters Saturday in a slump having lost three of its last four games, with the only win coming against a Stanford side currently sitting at 3-4. The Wolverines are putting up great scoring numbers as they rank 27th in offensive efficiency per KenPom, but the defense is proving to be a massive problem at 101st.
The Ducks also need a win to get back on track as they're riding a two-game losing streak after starting 4-0. They have a decent shot with an advantage in a couple of key areas over the Wolverines. First, Oregon is the significantly better rebounding team. One of Michigan's best attributes is the ability to secure offensive rebounds at 50th in that category, though this strength is neutralized against the Ducks as they're grabbing defensive rebounds at the 20th-highest percentage in the nation. They also have an edge going the other direction at 138th in offensive rebounding percentage compared to 238th on the defensive side for the Wolverines.
The second area in which Oregon carries a noticeable edge is on defense. While the Ducks aren't playing elite, they're still noticeably better than Michigan coming in at No. 73 in defensive efficiency. Oregon has only played two home games so far and has only allowed 128 total points. Michigan, in contrast, gave up 74 points in the season-opener to UNC Asheville and more recently 94 points in a loss to Long Beach State.
Looking at the bottom line, Oregon is simply the more complete team. The Ducks are better at rebounding, defense, and will be at home. Michigan's offensive attack can certainly deliver enough points for a hard-fought road win, but ultimately I have to take the more balanced squad.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oregon -2
North Carolina State at 
Boston College
N.C. State is coming off back-to-back defeats, neither of which can be spun in a positive direction. The Wolfpack first went down to BYU in Las Vegas 95-86 before losing by 20 to Mississippi on the road. The latter is far more concerning as Saturday's game will also be away and the host team boasts better efficiency numbers than the Rebels. If N.C. State doesn't improve, we're likely to see another ugly outcome on Saturday.
Boston College already has two losses, but actually appear on a clear upward trend. The Eagles were ranked No. 128 on KenPom's preseason efficiency standings and they've worked their way up to 95th. Unlike last year's squad which was among the worst offensively in the ACC, this season is substantially better at 87th in offensive efficiency and coming off its best game of the season - an 80-62 victory at Vanderbilt.
When stacking these teams against each other, the biggest area that stands out is free-throw shooting as Boston College carry a massive advantage in both directions on the court. The Eagles are one of the best teams in the country at making free-throws with an 83 percent average - third-highest in the nation. This is important because N.C. State's biggest issue on defense is free-throw attempts as they rank 278th. On the other end, the Wolfpack seldom gets to the charity stripe and are 275th in offensive attempt rate. On top of this incredibly low number, Boston College is one of the best when it comes to preventing free-throws at 14th among all D1 teams. As one can see, these are massive differences and these numbers don't even consider the fact Boston College is the home team on Saturday.
Based on recent trends and the massive free-throw disparity, Boston College is poised to successfully defend its home court. I'm taking the Eagles in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Boston College -2
Illinois at 
Rutgers
Despite entering Saturday with a 5-1 record, Illinois still has a lot to prove. The club has played one of the easiest schedules in the country ranked 350th in difficulty per KenPom, and their only outing worth noting was a 71-64 home loss to Marquette. At first glance, everything is fine. But a deeper look reveals a different picture.
Through the first six games, Illinois already shows several red flags. First, the Illini cannot cause defense turnovers ranking 347th in percentage. Second, they struggle against good passing teams with the second-highest assist rate allowing among all 362 D1 teams. And thirdly, they rarely get to the charity stripe ranking 286th in offensive free-throw attempt rate while also only making 57 percent of those attempts - third-lowest in the country. Other than these numbers, Illinois has posted elite defensive stats, but these kinds of details can't be hidden and will inevitably present themselves at some point.
Rutgers, on the other hand, has recorded great defensive stats across the board and its results back everything up. Since losing to Princeton on a neutral court to open the season, Rutgers has played five consecutive home games and has held every opponent under 64 points, with two unable to reach 50. The Scarlet Knights' only issue so far has been its offensive efficiency. But luckily for them, their defense has been so stifling that it hasn't yet been a problem since the first outing.
With the way these two teams play defense, this game is going to get ugly. If Illinois didn't have so many alarming areas of concern, my pick might be different. I'm going with the Scarlet Knights in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Rutgers pk
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Oregon -2
- Boston College -2
- Rutgers pk
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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