This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The Saturday college hoops slate never seems to disappoint, and this one is no exception. Several of the top teams take the court as seeding and tickets to the Big Dance are at stake. Here are my predictions for some notable games.
Alabama 
at Kentucky 
Alabama is playing as well as any team in the country having won 13 of its last 15 games while recording the top offensive efficiency rating among all D1 teams. Its defense isn't bad either, and when combined with its scoring abilities, we have the sixth-best team in the country according to KenPom's overall efficiency standings.
Kentucky, on the other hand, hasn't fared particularly well the past few weeks by only winning six of its last 12 outings. The only thing consistent about the Wildcats is their inconsistency. They've lost to the likes of South Carolina and LSU, though they've also knocked off Auburn. They've also lost three of their last four home games.
In comparing the teams, Alabama has the biggest advantage in this matchup. Its league-best offensive attack is going against a vulnerable Kentucky defense that sits seventh in efficiency during SEC conference play. The Tide also have an edge on the offensive glass, ranking third in offensive rebounding percentage in the conference while Kentucky isn't quite as effective on defense at eighth in rebounding.
When Kentucky has the ball, it will have to face an Alabama defense that's stepped up in recent weeks as they're fifth-best in efficiency among SEC teams during conference play. This improvement puts their defense nearly on par with Kentucky's fourth-rated offense.
All in all, Alabama is simply the better team. And for what it's worth, the Tide has covered the spread in nine of its last 12 games, according to Action Network. For these reasons, I'm taking the points with Alabama.
College Basketball Best Bet: Alabama +2.5
Virginia Tech 
at Pittsburgh 
These teams are trending in opposite directions. Virginia Tech has lost four of its last six games, while Pittsburgh has taken seven of nine - including impressive road decisions over Duke and Virginia. And for good measure, their performances against market expectations also back this up. The Hokies are 2-4 against the spread in its last six games while the Panthers are 5-1 according to Action Network. Based on how they match up against each other, I'm thinking these trends will continue Saturday.
Pittsburgh has a clear rebounding advantage over Virginia Tech at both ends of the court. Most importantly, the Panthers should see plenty of put-back opportunities in this game with the third-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the ACC during conference playgoing against a Virginia Tech side with the fourth-worst defensive rebounding percentage. At the other end, the Hokies don't really do much on the offensive boards as they sit second-worst in the conference for that category and their guests won't help their cause at eighth in the league for defensive rebounding percentage.
The other area where Pittsburgh carries an advantage is turnovers. When Virginia Tech has the ball, it's been rather sloppy with the fourth-worst offensive turnover percentage in the ACC since the conference season started. This is great news for the Panthers, who rank fifth in defensive turnover percentage, likely helping them generate many turnovers on Saturday. Going in the other direction, Pittsburgh once again claims an advantage at third in the ACC in offensive turnover percentage. Virginia Tech's defense ranks sixth in turnovers, but the Panthers don't often give the ball up.
Given these advantages and the fact Pittsburgh is at home, I'm laying the points with the Panthers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Pittsburgh -3
Villanova 
at Connecticut 
Villanova finally found its rhythm again by winning four of its last five games. The recent streak was much needed after the Wildcats endured a five-game losing streak during the second half of January. Two defeats during this slump came against Marquette, but a third came at the hands of Connecticut. Villanova narrowly lost to the Huskies by a point when they hosted the defending champs back on Jan. 20. They now face a daunting challenge in traveling to Storrs for the rematch. But based on how they're playing, I like their odds of staying in this matchup.
Connecticut is a great team and appears determined to defend its national title. But as great as it is, Villanova can seemingly counter its best offensive strengths. The Huskies boast the highest offensive efficiency rating in the Big East during conference play, but the Wildcats list the second-best defensive rating. UConn has the highest offensive rebounding percentage in the conference, yet Villanova ranks second in defensive rebounding. The Huskies have the best three-point field goal percentage in the league, but once again Villanova matches with the best three-point field goal percentage allowed.
The other factor we need to consider is the playing style. Both prefer a methodical, deliberate pace as they rank among the slowest teams in the nation with Connecticut at 335th and Villanova 343rd, likely giving us a game that will produce less possessions. This naturally leads to a smaller final score, giving more weight to the double-digit spread.
Villanova has covered the spread in its last five consecutive games, according to Action Network. I'm betting it will be six straight after Saturday, so I'm taking the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Villanova +12
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Alabama +2.5
- Pittsburgh -3
- Villanova +12
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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