This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Saturday brings us a loaded college hoops slate, with many prominent teams taking the court. Here are my predictions for a few intriguing matchups tipping off later in the day.
Clemson 
at Duke 
The Blue Devils looked shaky in their last home game, but they bounced back in their most recent outing with a 14-point victory at Louisville. The recent home loss to Pittsburgh didn't look great, though their conference record now stands at 5-2 - a decent mark even though there are a couple of blemishes.
Ultimately, I like the home team in this matchup for one key reason. Duke lists the ACC's highest offensive efficiency rating during league play and it's going against the team with the third-worst defensive efficiency in the conference. Not only that, but Clemson also carries the league's worst effective field goal percentage and worst three-point percentage allowed at 40 percent. The latter could be a major problem because one of Duke's best skills is long-range shooting having made 38 percent from behind the arc. At the other end of the court, Clemson has a small advantage, but it's not much of one as Duke offers the sixth-best defensive efficiency in the ACC during the conference season. The Blue Devils also rank well above-average in several other defensive categories such as turnover percentage and rebounding.
Duke already beat Michigan State and Baylor by at least eight points earlier in the season, so it's already demonstrated multiple times it's capable of beating good teams by a wide margin. I'm laying the points with the Blue Devils in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Duke -7.5
Colorado 
at Washington State 
It might not appear obvious, but this is a favorable matchup for Washington State.
The Cougars are playing solid defense during conference play as they rank sixth in the Pac-12 in efficiency, but the most important note is its interior defense. This has been a consistent strength for the team all season having held opponents to 44 percent on 2-point shots, the 20th-lowest percentage among all D1 clubs. This is critical as Colorado is extremely reliant on inside scoring. The Buffaloes rank 335th in the nation in three-point attempt rate, and the number has gone down during conference action. Against Pac-12 opponents, Colorado has the highest percentage of points off two-point shots and the lowest percentage of points off three-pointers. This kind of unbalanced approach is fine against weaker defensive teams, but it plays right into the Cougars' hands.
The other major factor working in Washington State's favor is the location. Colorado has struggled away from the mile-high elevation by losing five of eight games played outside of Boulder. Washington State, meanwhile, has fared much better at home. And like most college teams, the splits are night and day as they're averaging 75 points while allowing 69 in four conference outings. In five road contests against league competition, the Cougars are scoring 72 while giving up 75.
Colorado is proving to be a tough team, but so is Washington State as it just defeated Arizona and Utah in its last two home games. It won't be easy, but I like the Cougars' odds of defending home court. I'm taking Washington State.
College Basketball Best Bet: Washington State -1
Minnesota 
at Penn State 
Minnesota is reeling as they enter Saturday on a four-game skid. It's lost all four by at least nine points, and seemingly doesn't matter where the matchup took place as two were at home and two on the road. In hindsight, the defeats aren't too surprising considering that last year's team went 2-17 in conference play and was virtually untested this year before going up against league competition. The Gophers played the second-easiest non-conference schedule among all D1 teams according to KenPom and dropped their only challenging game on the road against San Francisco where they lost by 18.
On paper, Penn State isn't any better and actually ranks lower on KenPom's overall efficiency chart compared to Minnesota. Either way, the Nittany Lions logged their most impressive win of the season in their last home matchup by handing the first-place Wisconsin Badgers their only conference loss of the season 87-83. They also defeated Ohio State and Michigan, giving them a trio of victories that prove their potential for a solid effort - even though they've been inconsistent.
In comparing the teams, one important area stands out: turnovers. Penn State has the highest defensive turnover percentage in the Big Ten since the conference season started while Minnesota carries the second-worst offensive turnover percentage. The Nittany Lions also have a turnover advantage going in the other direction with the third-best offensive turnover percentage during conference play and Minnesota ranked fifth on D in the same category.
Given the massive advantage there, I'm betting Penn State will win the game and cover the small number in the process. I'm laying the points with the Nittany Lions in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Penn State -2.5
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Duke -7.5
- Washington State -1
- Penn State -2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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