This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Thursday brings us another slate filled with non-conference matchups. Here are my best bets for some of the more intriguing games on the board.
Kent State at 
Oregon
Kent State has won seven of 10 games, although it doesn't yet have any noteworthy victories. The Golden Flashes took James Madison to double overtime before losing, and outside of that game they haven't faced any other teams that rank in the top 100 of KenPom's overall efficiency chart.
Oregon, meanwhile, has already defeated Georgia and Michigan but also lost to Alabama and Syracuse. The losses never look good, but at least we know Oregon is thoroughly battle-tested as it prepares for conference play next week.
When comparing these teams side-by-side, it's hard not to strongly favor Oregon. The Ducks rank significantly higher in offensive and defensive efficiency and have several advantages in key areas. First, Kent State has had trouble holding on to the ball, ranking 254th in the nation in offensive turnover percentage. This trait is never ideal, and it's even worse in this case because Oregon ranks 89th in defensive turnovers, so the Ducks will likely win the turnover margin on Thursday. On a similar note, the Golden Flashes have also had an issue with getting shots blocked, ranking 289th in offensive block rate, which is also a problem because Oregon ranks 83rd in defensive shot-blocking percentage. Third, the Ducks are effective at driving to the rim and drawing contact, ranking 99th in offensive free-throw attempt rate, an ideal attribute in this matchup because Kent State has had trouble guarding teams without fouling, ranking 261st in defensive free-throw attempt rate. Last but not least, Kent State has been extremely vulnerable on the perimeter, allowing opponents to make over 37 percent from behind the arc, the 334th highest percentage allowed, which also plays into Oregon's hands because the Ducks are making nearly 36 percent of three-pointers.
Based on the data, there's not much reason to think Oregon won't successfully defend its home court on Thursday. College basketball is full of surprises, as we get reminded every March, but I like our chances with the home team. I'm laying the points with Oregon in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oregon -6.5
Hofstra at 
UNLV
Hofstra enters Thursday with a 7-4 record, but it's worth noting that two of its losses came against Princeton and Duke, two teams that rank in the top 50 of KenPom's overall efficiency chart. And even though the Pride already has four losses, it's still riding a positive trajectory, having started the season ranked at No. 113 on KenPom's efficiency chart and working its way up to No. 98.
UNLV, on the other hand, is riding a negative trendline. The Rebels started the year ranked at No. 76 in overall efficiency, and now they're down to No. 101. UNLV was in worse shape a week ago before it defeated Creighton, 79-64, as the impressive victory shot it up to its current standing. The fact that UNLV dominated a team like Creighton cannot be overlooked, but at the same time, this kind of performance seemingly came out of nowhere. Either way, the game revealed that UNLV is a decent but inconsistent team.
Overall, these two teams are remarkably similar. Both have above-average offensive attacks while also playing lackluster defense. UNLV ranks slightly higher on offense, while Hofstra ranks slightly higher on defense. That said, Hofstra has an edge in a couple of key categories that should help the Pride compete in Thursday's game.
First, Hofstra is a much better shooting team. The Pride is making over 37 percent from behind the arc while attempting them at the ninth11th-highest frequency in the country, yielding the ninth-highest percentage of points off three-pointers. This is bad news for UNLV because the Rebels have struggled guarding long-range shots, allowing opponents to make over 36 percent from behind the arc. Second, UNLV relies on inside scoring, recording the 71st-highest percentage of points off two-point shots among all D1 teams. This is likely not a recipe for success against Hofstra because this plays right into its strength. The Pride doesn't have great overall defensive numbers, but it's been noticeably effective at guarding the paint, holding opponents to 45 percent on two-point shots, the 53rd-lowest percentage allowed.
It's tough to bet against the home team, especially since it recently showed it's capable of taking down an elite team, but at the same time, this appears to be an outlier compared to the rest of its season thus far. Considering the matchup advantages listed above, I'm taking the points with the road team in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Hofstra +4.5
Boise State at 
Washington State
Boise State is on a roll, having won six of its last seven games. The Broncos have played one of the most difficult schedules in the nation, ranking 36th in difficulty according to KenPom, so some of their numbers might not look spectacular, but they're still a formidable group all the same. This is especially true when looking at raw scoring numbers, as Boise State has faced the 17th-most difficult slate of defensive teams.
Washington State, in contrast, has hardly been tested at all, with a schedule that ranks 344th in difficulty. The Cougars have played only one challenging game all season, a neutral-site game against Mississippi State, and they lost, 76-64. With such an easy list of opponents, it's hard to put much stock in Washington State's numbers. Defensively, they rank highly in many specific categories like field goal percentage allowed, but this doesn't account for the opponent, unlike adjusted efficiency data.
Putting scheduling differences aside, these two teams are close to even when it comes to efficiency. That said, Boise State is noticeably better in one area that always helps. Long-range shooting. The Broncos are making and taking three-point shots at a much higher rate than the Cougars, a skillset that will surely come in handy on the road.
When it comes down to it, I'd much rather take the battle-tested team with an extra loss over the unproven team with one fewer loss. Washington State's defense may step up and prove me wrong, but I'll believe it when I see it. Given the current info available, I'm taking Boise State in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Boise State +1
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Oregon -6.5
- Hofstra +4.5
- Boise State +1
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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