This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Thursday's college hoops slate once again brings us a familiar offering of Big Ten and Pac-12 After Dark matchups. Here are my predictions for a few select matchups.
Ohio State 
at Minnesota 
In the first game following its dismissal of head coach Chris Holtmann, Ohio State pulled off the improbable and upset Purdue, 73-69. It was certainly a nice 'feel good' moment for the beleaguered squad, but now it's back to reality as the team has to travel and face off against a challenging conference opponent. Despite the incredible victory, we're still looking at a team that had lost nine of its last 11 games before the upset.
Ohio State defeated Minnesota in the first conference game of the season, way back on December 3rd, but these teams have gone in opposite directions since that date. After the Buckeyes won that game, they were ranked 23rd on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, but they've since fallen to 63rd. The Gophers, on the other hand, were 113th on KenPom on December 4th, but now they're up to 68th thanks to their consistently positive results over the past three months.
In looking at how these teams match up against each other, Minnesota has an edge in two key areas. The Gophers have the better defense, which is self-evident from the efficiency rankings, but it's also further affirmed when looking deeper into the numbers. Since the conference season started, Minnesota ranks seventh in the Big Ten in defensive turnover percentage, a few ticks better than Ohio State, which ranks 11th in the same category on defense. Minnesota also has a stronger perimeter defense, which isn't saying much because Ohio State has had little success in guarding against outside shots. Conference opponents are making over 40 percent of shots outside the arc against the Buckeyes, the worst mark in the Big Ten, while Minnesota is holding league opponents to under 36 percent in the same period.
The Buckeyes have a small edge offensively when looking at efficiency data, and yet the Gophers have much better shooting numbers. During conference play, Minnesota is making 53 percent of shots inside the arc, the second-highest percentage in the Big Ten, while Ohio State is just making 50 percent. This is also the case when factoring in shot selection, as Minnesota ranks seventh in the conference in effective field goal percentage, compared to 11th for Ohio State.
Perhaps the most impressive stat about Minnesota is its record against the spread, an absurd 22-3 mark on the season, according to Action Network. This team has truly defied expectations the entire way. I'm betting they'll do it one more time on Thursday. I'm taking the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Minnesota -3.5
Washington 
at Arizona State 
These two teams previously tangled up in Seattle back on January 11th, and Washington won handily, 82-67, fueled by a 49-point second-half performance. The rematch will take place in Tempe on Thursday, but I'm betting the Huskies will once again emerge victorious due to how they match up against the Sun Devils.
When Washington has the ball, it has a massive advantage. The Huskies have the third-highest offensive efficiency rating in the Pac-12 since the conference season tipped off, and they're going against a Sun Devil team that has the third-worst defensive efficiency rating in the same period. The Huskies are primed to do most of their damage in the paint, where they're making 55 percent of shots inside the arc against Pac-12 opponents, the second-highest percentage in the league. This is a critical stat because the Sun Devils are allowing conference opponents to make 55 percent of two-pointers, the worst in the league.
When Arizona State has the ball, it once again has an uphill battle. The Sun Devils are starting behind the eight ball, recording the lowest offensive efficiency rating among all Pac-12 teams, 217th among all D1 teams. Their scoring problem is exacerbated by the fact that they struggle to make three-pointers, shooting a league-worst 31 percent from behind the arc since the conference season tipped off. They're also curiously attempting three-pointers at the third-highest rate in the Pac-12, which again is not helping their cause. Either way, Washington has played okay on defense, shining at times while letting up in other moments. In their recent homestand, Washington held Stanford to 65 points in a 20-point victory before losing to California, 82-80, in the following game. It's always possible the Huskies' defense might let us down, but I'm trusting that their opponents' deficiencies will help them take care of business.
For these reasons, I'm laying the points with Washington.
College Basketball Best Bet: Washington -2.5
Washington State 
at Arizona 
The winner takes first place in the Pac-12, for a moment at least. This should be the 'game of the night,' but unfortunately for Washington State, the books are projecting a decisive victory for the home team. In looking at the data, I found a different angle.
You're hard-pressed to find a hotter team than Washington State. The Cougars have won 10 of their last 11 games, including their last seven consecutive games, and their only loss in that span came in overtime at California. During this stretch, Washington State has defeated nearly every team in the top half of the conference standings -- Arizona, Oregon, Colorado, and Utah. The only qualifying team it hasn't beaten is UCLA, and that's because they haven't faced off yet.
Arizona has played the role of Goliath all season long, but it will have its hands full on Thursday going against a Washington State team that can counter all the Wildcats' strongest traits. Arizona leads the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency during conference play, but Washington State is right on its heels, ranking top three in the same two categories. The Wildcats have made a league-high 55 percent of two-point shots during conference play, but the Cougars have held opponents to a league-best 47 percent on shots inside the arc. Arizona has the highest effective field goal percentage in the Pac-12, but Washington State once again counters with the best effective field goal percentage allowed on the defensive side.
Overall, this matchup appears more even than the overall efficiency numbers suggest. The rosters for each team saw a fair amount of turnover from last season, but it's still worth noting that Washington State won at Arizona last season, 74-61, and this year's group of Cougars has played better than last year's squad. This is especially true over the past several weeks, as Washington State has covered the spread in nine of their last 11 games, according to Action Network. The Cougars might not win on Thursday, but I'm betting they'll keep it close. I'm taking the points with Wazzu.
College Basketball Best Bet: Washington State +12
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Minnesota -3.5
- Washington -2.5
- Washington State +12
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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