This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Several Pac-12 and Big Ten teams are back on the court for more conference season action on Thursday's college hoops slate. Here are my bets for some of the more intriguing games of the day.
Minnesota at 
Michigan
Minnesota enters Thursday with a stellar 10-3 record, but the number of wins is a bit deceiving, as the Gophers played the easiest non-conference schedule in the country, ranking last at 362nd in difficulty, per KenPom. Even still, Minnesota defeated Nebraska in early December, so it passed one of the few tests it's had all season. The Gophers didn't play nearly as well against San Francisco and Ohio State though, dropping both games by double digits.
Michigan, in contrast, now has a losing record after stumbling in its recent game at home to McNeese State, 87-76. The loss itself isn't bad, as the Cowboys are ranked 80th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, but the Wolverines lost by 11 points and they again failed to play defense. This is an alarming trend for Michigan, one that's not easy to reverse. The Wolverines rank 142nd in defensive efficiency and the problem is so bad that their potent offensive attack, ranked 24th, typically can't overcome it. Michigan has scored at least 83 points in all six wins this season, which sounds nice, but in reality, it would have even more wins if the defense wasn't so consistently awful.
Looking at how this game will likely play out, it's hard not to expect a high-scoring game. Though not as extreme as the Wolverines, the Gophers also play better on offense compared to defense, and they've been scoring with consistency over the past month. Minnesota has scored at least 74 points in its last seven games, including matchups against Ohio State and Nebraska. The Gophers are also playing well defensively, although the recent opposition hasn't been quite as challenging compared to what they'll face throughout the Big Ten conference season. The last time that Minnesota faced a team with an offense ranked as highly as Michigan's, it allowed 84 points in a loss at Ohio State.
Neither team appears suited to slow down the other, so this game might very well turn into a track meet when it's all said and done. Considering the strengths of each team, and the severe weakness of one in particular, I'm betting that we'll see a ton of baskets. I'm on the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 151
Oregon at 
Washington
The Ducks are soaring, winning six of their last seven games. During this span, they've defeated Michigan, USC, and UCLA, which are all having disappointing seasons up to this point, but all three still served as good tests that Oregon passed. The Ducks have won most of their games thanks to a balanced brand of basketball, ranking in the top 65 of the nation in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
The Huskies, on the other hand, are coming off back-to-back losses during its road trip to Colorado and Utah. Washington has a couple of notable victories over Xavier and Gonzaga, so it's still proving to be a formidable team despite recent losses.
At first glance, these two teams are extremely even, especially in the efficiency categories, although Oregon has an offensive edge in several other areas. The Ducks rank higher than the Huskies in effective field goal percentage, offensive turnover percentage, offensive free-throw attempt rate, two-point field goal percentage, and three-point percentage. And while Oregon doesn't have the same number of advantages on the other end of the court, it still outranks Washington in defensive turnover percentage, defensive rebounding rate, and defensive steal percentage.
Overall, this matchup is extremely close. Both teams have posted similar numbers, without either team having a substantial advantage in any one area. Considering how even these teams are, and how many areas where Oregon has better numbers, I have to take the points in this matchup. I'm going with the Ducks.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oregon +4.5
Oregon State at 
Washington State
The Beavers have won nine of 13 games to start the season, although they're still looking for a quality win. They defeated USC in their last game, although they were playing at home and USC has fallen to the point where KenPom doesn't consider it to be a quality win, at least not at this moment in time. In any event, Oregon State has only played three games outside of Corvallis, and it lost all three games at the hands of Nebraska, Baylor, and Pittsburgh. The Beavers lost all three games by double digits and averaged 62 points in those games. These are noteworthy outcomes because Thursday's opponent represents a similar challenge.
Washington State, meanwhile, won a hard-fought victory over Boise State, 66-61, before getting swept in its recent road trip to the mountains, losing to Utah and Colorado. The losses never look good, but these opponents were arguably the second and third-best teams in the league, so we can't shame the Cougars too much for losing both games. They did only score 58 points against Utah and 67 points at Colorado, however, so the lack of scoring could be an issue.
Given the profiles of each team, I'm not expecting many points in this game. Both squads rely on their defense to win, and neither has shown an ability to overcome a stout defense. Additionally, both teams strongly prefer a slower-paced game. Over the years under both head coaches, each team has consistently slowed the game down, and this year is no exception. Oregon State ranks 284th in tempo while Washington State ranks 275th. It's always possible that Washington State has an easier time scoring playing at home and busts the under, but I'm betting that the defensive nature of each team will take over. I'm on the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 134
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Minnesota at Michigan - Over 151
- Oregon +4.5
- Oregon State at Washington State - Under 134
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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