This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Many more prolific teams join the conference tournament party on Thursday, as we move into the quarterfinals or second-round for the power conferences. Here are my predictions for a trio of games starting later in the day.
San Diego State 
vs. UNLV 
San Diego State enters the Mountain West tournament having lost its last two games, but this is still a formidable team. The Aztecs didn't lose at home until the final game of the regular season, and their only league losses came against teams with a winning conference record. During the non-conference season, San Diego State defeated Saint Mary's, the undisputed WCC champion, won at Gonzaga, and it also swept a trio of games against Pac-12 foes in Washington, California, and Stanford. Through it all, the Aztecs never suffered any bad losses and played at a consistently high level.
UNLV, meanwhile, ended the regular season on a strong note, winning 10 of its last 12 games, with its only two losses in that span coming against Nevada. This is a nice stat at face value, although it's worth pointing out that most of these games came against teams that reside in the cellar of the Mountain West. Namely, the Rebels faced San Jose State twice, Fresno State twice, Wyoming twice, and Air Force. Before this successful stretch of games, UNLV had lost at home to Air Force by a score of 90-58, so this was much needed otherwise the season had disaster written all over it. Aside from this brutal loss to Air Force, UNLV opened the season with a loss to Southern and also dropped games to Florida State, Richmond, and LMU, underscoring the inconsistent nature of the team. Then again, UNLV also defeated Creighton, 79-64, so this team certainly has potential, even though it doesn't always play like it.
When the Aztecs have the ball, they have a massive advantage on the offensive glass. San Diego State recorded the second-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the Mountain West during league play, while UNLV ranked eighth on the defensive side, likely leading to a ton of put-back opportunities for the Aztecs. San Diego State is also more likely to take more trips to the charity stripe, as the Aztecs ranked sixth in the league in free throw attempt rate, compared to ninth for the Rebels in defensive free throw attempt rate.
When the Rebels have the ball, they have a major challenge in the form of San Diego State's vaunted defense. Once again, to the surprise of no one, the Aztecs boast the best defensive efficiency rating among Mountain West teams during conference play, as well as eighth among all D1 teams for the entire season. Additionally, San Diego State also ranks first in the league in effective field goal percentage allowed and defensive turnover percentage, the latter being a critical note because UNLV has noticeable turnover issues, ranking third-worst in the league in offensive turnover percentage.
Whether it's rebounding, free throw attempts, or turnovers, San Diego State figures to have an advantage in multiple categories. These two teams split the season series, with the Aztecs dominating at home, 72-61, before UNLV got its revenge in Las Vegas last week, winning 62-58. We don't want to discredit UNLV's recent victory, but at the same time, it's important to note that San Diego State somehow made 7-of-31 (.226) shots from inside the arc, by far their worst shooting performance of the season. The Aztecs don't have any other games this season with under 10 two-pointers or under 37 percent from inside the arc. It's fair to say that UNLV's defense influenced many of the shots, but then again, SDSU's shooting percentage was such an outlier that it's hard to imagine the Aztecs shooting so poorly in the third game between these two teams.
Ultimately, San Diego State is more consistent and has a much longer and more successful track record. I'm laying the points with the Aztecs in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: San Diego State -4
Mississippi 
vs. Texas A&M 
Following a hard-fought home win over its in-state rival on Jan. 30, Mississippi had improved its record to 18-3 and looked like it had a shot at an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament, but unfortunately for the Rebels, the season went completely off the rails. Mississippi has now lost eight of its last 10 games, with its only two wins in that span coming against Missouri, which went 0-19 against SEC teams this season. Aside from racking up the losses, the Rebels are also missing high-quality wins. Their best win was a road win at Texas A&M in late January, 71-68, but this result doesn't look as impressive after the Rebels hosted the Aggies this past Saturday and got crushed in the rematch, losing 86-60.
Texas A&M, on the other hand, is riding a three-game winning streak and has collected many impressive victories, so many in fact that it's the only reason the Aggies still have a shot at an at-large bid despite the high number of losses. Texas A&M has defeated the likes of Ohio State (road), SMU (road), Iowa State (neutral), Kentucky (home), and Tennessee (home), all of which count as "A" wins according to KenPom, the highest-quality of win in other words. The Aggies also have several "B" wins on their resume, further solidifying their potential to knock off any good team on any given day.
In stacking these teams against each other, we have perhaps the biggest possible discrepancy and advantage that we could ever find. Texas A&M is not only the best rebounding team in the SEC, boasting the highest offensive and defensive rebounding percentages during league play, but it also ranks first among all D1 teams in offensive rebounding percentage for the whole season. This is a gigantic advantage against any team, and as fate would have it, Mississippi ranks 358th out of 362 D1 teams in defensive rebounding percentage. Texas A&M isn't very good when it comes to shooting, but it ranks second in the conference in offensive turnover percentage and third in free-throw attempt rate, giving them other opportunities to score when shots aren't falling.
The rebounding advantage played out exactly as we might expect in the first two games between these teams. Texas A&M tallied 18 offensive boards in each game, and it completely owned the glass in the most recent one this past Saturday, outrebounding Mississippi by a score of 50 total rebounds to 21 rebounds.
All in all, Mississippi has been trending downward for the past several weeks, further evidenced by its failure to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games, per Action Network. Texas A&M hasn't always played at its best, but this is still mostly the same team that went 15-3 in the conference last year, so this team is full of potential. Given the ceiling of each team, their recent play, and the matchup notes, I'm betting that the Aggies will once again dominate the glass and advance in the SEC tournament. I'm laying the points with Texas A&M.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas A&M -4.5
Kansas State 
vs. Iowa State 
In yesterday's article, I went with the under in the K-State game primarily because the Wildcats' style of play favors a low-scoring game. The pick busted in the final minute, but I still stand by the logic, and given their new opponent, I'm going back to the well.
At the risk of repeating myself, the important notes are that the Wildcats are among the best defensive teams in the country, logging the 19th-best defensive efficiency rating while simultaneously playing weaker on the offensive end, posting the third-worst offensive efficiency rating in the Big 12 during conference play. Also, Kansas State prefers a slower tempo, ranking 207th in average offensive possession length.
On Wednesday, as expected, Kansas State controlled the game, keeping the under on the track, but then plans went awry in the closing minute. This time, however, the Wildcats are facing a team that more resembles a mirror image of itself.
Iowa State established itself as one of the very best defensive teams in the nation, the second-best according to KenPom, with league-mate Houston being the only team ranked higher. On top of its elite efficiency rating, Iowa State also has the second-highest defensive turnover percentage among all D1 teams, terrible news for Kansas State because the Wildcats are ranked 346th in offensive turnover percentage. At the same time, the Cyclones aren't great at scoring, ranking ninth in the conference in offensive efficiency and 13th in effective field goal percentage. Also like K-State, Iowa State prefers a slower game, ranking 12th in the Big 12 in tempo since the conference season started.
These two teams first clashed in late January at Hilton Coliseum, with Iowa State holding home court, 78-67, and then they met again this past Saturday in Manhattan, where Kansas State returned the favor, 65-58. I'm tempted to take the points with the Wildcats, especially if it's a low-scoring game, but I can also imagine Iowa State tightening up in the second half and pulling away. Considering the strengths and weaknesses of each team, and their preferred style, I prefer the odds of seeing a low-scoring game. I'm taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 132.5
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- San Diego State -4
- Texas A&M -4.5
- Kansas State vs. Iowa State - Under 132.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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