This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
On Tuesday's college hoops slate, we're breaking down a Big East battle and a pair of SEC matchups. Here are my predictions for a trio of games tipping off on Tuesday evening.
Georgetown 
at Villanova 
I don't do this often, but we're going back to the well on this one.
Less than two weeks ago, on February 16, Villanova traveled to Georgetown and earned a decisive victory, 70-54. The Wildcats jumped out to a 28-19 halftime lead and never looked back.
One of my picks on that day was Under 139.5, a no-doubter that hit without any issues. One of the keys to this pick was Villanova's stingy defense, which has tightened up as the season has gone along. The Wildcats have the 18th-best adjusted defensive efficiency rating and rank fourth in the Big East during conference play, giving them a lock-down defense any way you look at it. Villanova has now held five of its last six opponents to 62 points or fewer. The only exception in this span was its most recent performance at Connecticut, where it allowed 78 points to the defending national champs.
The other key to the 'under' hitting stems from Georgetown's massive offensive issues. The Hoyas have struggled equally from both ends of the court since the conference season started, ranking second-worst in the Big East in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Before their last two games, coming against St. John's and DePaul, the Hoyas played a stretch where they failed to score more than 72 points in six of seven games.
A third key, and the one that ties everything together, is the fact that these are two of the slowest-paced teams in the Big East. Villanova ranks 343rd in tempo among all D1 teams, while recording the slowest tempo in the league during conference season. Georgetown has demonstrated a similar style, ranking 221st in tempo and fourth-slowest in the Big East during conference play.
Not much has changed since these two teams last saw each other, so I'm expecting a similar low-scoring outcome. I'm taking the under in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 140.5
Georgia 
at LSU
Georgia is in rough shape. The Bulldogs lost by 21 points to Auburn in their last home game, following a trend of disappointing performances over the past several weeks. Georgia has now lost seven of its last eight games, with its only win in that span coming at Vanderbilt, which is the worst-ranked team in the SEC on KenPom's overall efficiency chart.
LSU, meanwhile, has recorded some of its best performances in recent weeks. The Tigers won at South Carolina on Feb. 17 before defeating Kentucky on Feb. 21, giving them back-to-back games of high-quality basketball. This isn't a new development for LSU, as the Tigers have previously won against Wake Forest and Texas A&M, but they've struggled with consistency at times, mostly when going against the top teams in the conference.
In comparing these two teams side-by-side, the area that stands out the most is Georgia's defense. The Bulldogs have had major issues with stopping conference opponents, posting the third-worst defensive efficiency rating in the SEC during league play. It's particularly weak in the paint, allowing SEC opponents to make 56 percent of shots inside the arc, the worst percentage allowed in the conference. Georgia also ranks last in the league in effective field goal percentage allowed, giving them a defense that seemingly fails to force difficult shots time and time again. LSU, on the other hand, has played competently on offense during the conference season. The Tigers have the eighth-highest offensive efficiency rating in the SEC during conference play, and they also rank fifth in effective field goal percentage and third in three-point field goal percentage, so they should be able to find plenty of open looks on Tuesday.
These two teams previously met in Athens just over a month ago, with the home team emerging as the winner, 68-66. Despite not going against a team that's known for a stout defense, LSU somehow made just 12-of-34 shots inside the arc, easily their worst two-point shooting performance of the season. With the rematch taking place in Baton Rouge, I'm betting the Tigers will make a few more shots this time around. I'm laying the points with the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: LSU -4.5
Kentucky 
at Mississippi State 
The last time these two teams clashed, Kentucky hosted and won by a final score of 90-77. One key to the Wildcats' success in that game came from the fact that they made 23-of-31 two-pointers, only the second game of the season where they shot over 70 percent from inside the arc. The other game came against Stonehill, so this is not something that Kentucky typically does, nor should we expect it.
The other key to the Wildcats' win in the first game was its frequent trips to the charity stripe where they made 23-of-27 free throws. This is another stat that we wouldn't expect to reoccur based on long-term trends. In fact, on paper, the Bulldogs are much more likely to attempt foul shots. During conference play, Kentucky has seldom gone to the charity stripe, recording the second-lowest offensive free-throw attempt rate in the SEC. At the same time, Mississippi State has played excellent defense without fouling, logging the fifth-lowest defensive free-throw attempt rate. At the other end of the court, the Bulldogs once again have a gigantic advantage in free-throw attempts, where they rank third among SEC teams during league play with Kentucky coming in at 10th on the defensive side for the same category.
In looking at other areas, Mississippi State also has a clear advantage in rebounding. The Bulldogs should see several put-back opportunities in this matchup, logging the third-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the SEC during the conference season, while going against a defense that ranks seventh in defensive rebounding. The edge is similar at the other end, where Mississippi State ranks third in defensive rebounding while going against a Kentucky offense that ranks 10th in offensive rebounding.
All in all, with this matchup being so close, and with the Bulldogs doing a few certain things particularly well, I like the home team in this one. I'm going with the Bulldogs.
College Basketball Best Bet: Mississippi State -3.5
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Georgetown at Villanova - Under 140.5
- LSU -4.5
- Mississippi State -3.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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