This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Major conference teams from all around the country once again take the court as the regular winds down. Here are my predictions for a trio of tight matchups on Wednesday's college hoops slate.
Northwestern 
at Maryland 
Here we have a textbook case of strength versus strength and weakness versus weakness.
When Northwestern has the ball, it's one of the best-scoring teams in the nation. The Wildcats have the 29th-highest offensive efficiency rating among all D1 teams while logging the third-highest rating among Big Ten teams during conference play, giving us a team that has played well offensively for the entire season. Most notably, the Wildcats are making 43 percent of their three-pointers against Big Ten opponents, the highest mark in the league, and they also boast the best offensive turnover percentage in the conference, making them a fundamentally sound offensive unit. That said, Maryland's defense will likely be ready for the challenge. The Terrapins boast the highest defensive efficiency rating in the Big Ten during conference play, and they also rank first in effective field goal percentage allowed, offering a fair test for the Wildcats' offense. Overall, this side of the court is a mostly even matchup. I do not believe this is the case at the other end.
When Maryland has the ball, it's one of the weakest scoring teams in the Big Ten, clearly the second-worst offensively based on its efficiency rating. Only Rutgers has had a more difficult time scoring points among all Big Ten teams. The task is made more difficult by the fact that the Terrapins are extremely sloppy offensively, posting the worst offensive turnover percentage in the Big Ten since the conference season started. This is a problem in any game, but it's a major issue against Northwestern because the Wildcats are among the best at causing defensive turnovers, recording the third-highest defensive turnover percentage in the Big Ten. Northwestern hasn't played as sharp on defense for most of the season, ranking 78th in defensive efficiency among all D1 teams, but this skill at stealing the ball and causing turnovers should pay off in this matchup.
The last time these two teams met, back on January 17, Northwestern prevailed, 72-69, in a game that came down to the wire. As one might expect based on the aforementioned matchup notes, Northwestern easily won the turnover category, seven to 13. I'm betting Wednesday's rematch will once again come down to the final minute. For all these reasons, I'm taking the points in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Northwestern +5.5
UCF at Oklahoma State 
UCF won a big road game at Texas back on January 17, but the Knights haven't played the same ever since. They have now lost seven of their last 10 games, including their last five consecutive road games. Its worst loss arguably was also its most recent, a 10-point loss at West Virginia, indisputably the worst team in the conference.
Oklahoma State, on the other hand, has finally played better in recent weeks, especially at home. The Cowboys have won three of their last four home games, and would potentially enter Wednesday with a four-game home winning streak were it not for a game-winning buzzer-beating jump shot in overtime against Oklahoma this past Saturday. In any event, Oklahoma State defeated Kansas State, BYU, and Cincinnati (on the road) in February, indicating that this team is on an upward turn, even if it might not mean much beyond the end of the regular season. It had also covered the spread in five consecutive games, according to Action Network, before the recent game against the Sooners.
In comparing these teams side-by-side, Oklahoma State has an edge in a couple of key areas. First, it has a substantially better offensive attack. This isn't saying much, however, as UCF has consistently been the worst offensive team in the conference throughout the entire season. The Knights rank 171st in offensive efficiency among all D1 teams, giving them the lowest rating among Big 12 teams both during and outside of league play. Central Florida's offensive struggles make it the ideal opponent for Oklahoma State, which has had defensive issues against Big 12 opponents, ranking 13th in the league in efficiency.
When playing in the other direction, Oklahoma State does two things well that should help it win against UCF. The Cowboys are among the best at attacking the basket, recording the second-highest offensive free-throw attempt rate in the Big 12 during conference play. This is noteworthy because UCF has had issues with fouling on defense, ranking 302nd among all D1 teams in defensive free-throw attempt rate. Additionally, the Cowboys also frequently attack from the perimeter, ranking second in the Big 12 in three-point attempt rate. They also tend to knock down their shots, making 35 percent from behind the arc on the season. This is again key because the Knights are much more effective at guarding inside the paint. For the season, UCF ranks 17th in the nation in two-point field goal percentage allowed compared to 133rd in three-point field goal percentage allowed.
Considering all these facts, I'm laying the points with the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oklahoma State -2.5
South Carolina 
at Texas A&M 
This matchup has all the makings of a defensive battle.
Despite a respectable conference record of 10-4, South Carolina has not played great offensively. The Gamecocks have the fifth-worst offensive efficiency rating in the SEC since the conference season tipped off, making this an area that it needs to improve if it wants to make a run in March. In the same period, South Carolina ranks last in the conference in offensive free-throw attempt rate and fourth-worst in offensive turnover percentage, further limiting their scoring prospects. Their best offensive skill, based on the numbers, is collecting boards, ranking fifth in the league in offensive rebounding percentage. Unfortunately for the Gamecocks, the Aggies are undoubtedly the best rebounding team in the SEC, boasting the highest rebounding percentages on both ends of the court.
Texas A&M, meanwhile, has had similar offensive issues as its guest on Wednesday. The Aggies have the fourth-worst offensive efficiency rating in the SEC during league play, although they're still arguably worse at scoring than the Gamecocks. Since the conference season started, Texas A&M ranks last in the SEC in effective field goal percentage, two-point field goal percentage, three-point percentage, offensive block percentage, and second-worst in free-throw percentage. These numbers alone are brutal, but on top of their shooting difficulties, the Aggies have to face a defense that ranks third in the SEC in defensive efficiency, two-point field goal percentage allowed, and three-point field goal percentage allowed. South Carolina is a stout defensive unit from any angle.
The third ingredient for a low-scoring game is inevitably a slower style of play, which both teams prefer. South Carolina ranks 355th in adjusted tempo among all D1 teams with Texas A&M not far behind at 299th, so this game is a good bet to have a smaller number of possessions than usual.
Add everything up, and I like our odds of seeing a grinding, defensive clash. I'm taking the under in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 135
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Northwestern +5.5
- Oklahoma State -2.5
- South Carolina at Texas A&M - Under 135
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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