This article is part of our College Hoops Barometer series.
On the precipice of the NCAA Tournament, we'll look this week at the bubble teams. Who's in, who's on the fringe, and who's got some work left to do? Of course, all of this is subject to change as the conference tournaments begin in earnest. We'll be using a variety of measurements, including conference record, overall record, Strength of Schedule, KenPom rankings and the good ol' eye test to hash out which teams are worthy, and which teams should be left out in the cold. What matters more, big wins or bad losses? Should a sub-.500 conference record automatically preclude your squad from inclusion in the NCAA Tournament? Which statistic is the most useful in determining at-large bids? We'll tackle these questions and more in the Bubble Edition of the College Hoops Barometer.
UPGRADE
Syracuse - How many teams will the ACC get into the tourney? At this point it seems as though 9 squads are a lock, and the ACC could set the record with 11 if Wake Forest and Georgia Tech squeak in (more on them below). The Orange got off to a sluggish start this season but have a resume that features wins over Miami, Florida State and Duke. A 90-61 pummeling of aforementioned Georgia Tech will also help Syracuse's case, as will the victory over fellow bubble team Wake Forest. It's difficult to ignore the bad losses (BC, Georgetown, UConn and St. John's), and it is worth noting that Syracuse has been rather atrocious away from
On the precipice of the NCAA Tournament, we'll look this week at the bubble teams. Who's in, who's on the fringe, and who's got some work left to do? Of course, all of this is subject to change as the conference tournaments begin in earnest. We'll be using a variety of measurements, including conference record, overall record, Strength of Schedule, KenPom rankings and the good ol' eye test to hash out which teams are worthy, and which teams should be left out in the cold. What matters more, big wins or bad losses? Should a sub-.500 conference record automatically preclude your squad from inclusion in the NCAA Tournament? Which statistic is the most useful in determining at-large bids? We'll tackle these questions and more in the Bubble Edition of the College Hoops Barometer.
UPGRADE
Syracuse - How many teams will the ACC get into the tourney? At this point it seems as though 9 squads are a lock, and the ACC could set the record with 11 if Wake Forest and Georgia Tech squeak in (more on them below). The Orange got off to a sluggish start this season but have a resume that features wins over Miami, Florida State and Duke. A 90-61 pummeling of aforementioned Georgia Tech will also help Syracuse's case, as will the victory over fellow bubble team Wake Forest. It's difficult to ignore the bad losses (BC, Georgetown, UConn and St. John's), and it is worth noting that Syracuse has been rather atrocious away from the Carrier Dome. That being said, a 10-8 record in perhaps the best conference ever should be enough to warrant inclusion for the Orange in the big dance.
Providence - The Friars are going streaking! Providence won six-straight games to end the regular season, including wins over tournament teams in Creighton and Butler, and fellow bubble squads of Marquette and Xavier. This push to end the regular season gives Providence a winning record in the Big East and 20 wins on the year. While early losses to Boston College, St. John's and DePaul will no doubt hurt the Friars, the committee does take into consideration how a team is playing as March Madness draws near. As a result, the surging Friars likely won't have to sweat it out too much on Selection Sunday.
Marquette - Marquette has a KenPom ranking of 28, meaning the analytics world (or at least one expert in it) believes the Golden Eagles are certainly tournament worthy. Marquette is one of only three teams to hand defending champion Villanova a loss, but the Golden Eagles also beat Seton Hall once and Creighton twice. Wins over bubblicious teams in Georgia and Vanderbilt (see below) also lend credence to the notion that the Golden Eagles deserve a berth. Losses to St. John's and Georgetown are not pleasant, but the positives seem to outweigh the negatives for the Golden Eagles, and that win over Villanova ultimately puts Marquette over the top and into the big dance.
Vanderbilt - The Strength of Schedule will do wonders for Vandy's tournament hopes, as the Commodores have a top-five SOS. Five top-50 wins don't hurt, either. The Commodores got their signature win in the regular season finale against Florida en route to five wins in the final six games of the year. Inconsistency plagued Vandy overall, though, and a 17-14 mark during the year speaks volumes about the team's spotty, unpredictable play. Bad losses include a 20-point defeat at the hands of the worst team in the SEC (Mizzou), a 23-point loss to Middle Tennessee State, a 24-point loss to Marquette to open the year, and a three-point loss to Bucknell of the Patriot League. Still, a hot end to the season, some big wins and a strong strength of schedule should give the Commodores an at-large berth into the madness.
CHECK STATUS
Michigan State - Could the Spartans really not make the NCAA Tournament? Coach Tom Izzo is looking for his 20th straight appearance, but this year's squad has been injury-prone and inconsistent, and it may come down to the wire for the Spartans. Still, the Spartans challenged themselves in the non-conference slate with games against Arizona, Kentucky, Baylor and Duke. Of course, a win in any of those games would have been better, but the Spartans did knock off a tourney squad in Florida Gulf Coast during the early portion of the year. A loss to Northeastern is the only bad defeat on the resume, while the late-season victory over Wisconsin serves as the signature triumph for this squad. It's not the prettiest resume, but in all likelihood one win in the Big Ten Tournament should get the Spartans into the bracket.
Wake Forest - Another team with a strong Strength of Schedule, the Demon Deacons could be the 10th squad from the Atlantic Coast Conference to make the NCAA Tournament. Led by second-team All-American forward John Collins, Wake's signature win came in the middle of a three-game winning streak to end the regular season. The Demon Deacons knocked off Louisville by a score of 88-81 en route to evening its ACC conference record at 9-9. The Demon Deacons did lose to Clemson twice and did not really have a monstrous victory in the non-conference slate. However, the .500-record in the ACC and no truly bad losses gives the Demon Deacons a fighting chance.
Rhode Island - Rhode Island's inclusion into the tournament would place them in uncharted territory. After all, the Rams have not been to the big dance this century, with their last trip coming in 1999. The resume for the Rams has an early-season win over Cincinnati but losses to Valparaiso and fellow bubble team Providence. The Rams got hot at the end of the season, surging to five-straight wins and a 13-5 record in the Altlantic-10 conference. However, a Strength of Schedule of 64, a KenPom rating of 51, and an RPI of 42 (though the latter statistic may be going the way of the dinosaur) shows that the Rams are firmly on the bubble. Rhode Island still may have some work to do.
California - The Bears have a bit of a better Strength of Schedule than Rhode Island (36) but a tad worse KenPom ranking (55). Cal looked like a surefire tourney team before dropping five of its final six games of the regular campaign, with the lone win coming against an atrocious Oregon State unit. Cal has no big wins but no bad losses either. The Bears are what we thought they were: a middle of the road Pac-12 team that lost opportunities in the non-conference slate with losses to Virginia and Seton Hall. At some point, you've got to win those crucial non-conference games, and you can't simply be rewarded for agreeing to play them. The Bears have a boring, albeit consistent resume.
DOWNGRADE
Xavier - Perhaps no team in the country has had as precipitous of a fall this season as the Musketeers. In the preseason poll, Xavier was a top-10 squad. Now the Musketeers will be lucky if they can even gain a slot in the final field. Xavier lost six of the its final seven games of the regular season, all contests coinciding with the loss of starting point guard Edmond Sumner, who will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL. The NCAA Tournament will take into account the loss of Sumner, which will likely not reflect kindly upon the remainder of the Xavier squad. In other words, the fact that without Sumner, the Musketeers do not look like an NCAA Tournament squad, may end up precluding them from an entry into the big dance. Fellow Big East squads like Marquette and Providence appear to have jumped the Musketeers, who finished with a 9-9 conference record.
Kansas State - The KenPom rankings like Kansas State, while the Wildcats have a Strength of Schedule of 53. The Wildcats started off the season winning 12 of the first 13 games, but sputtered during Big 12 conference play, ending up with an unenviable 8-10 record. The Wildcats beat West Virginia and Baylor and played the Kansas Jayhawks close on two occasions. A stunning 30-point loss to anemic Oklahoma is the lone bad loss on KSU's schedule. Do the big wins against West Virginia and Baylor, as well as the two narrow losses to No. 1 Kansas give the Wildcats enough mustard to offset a poor conference record overall? In other words, which Wildcat squad will show up if Kansas State is included in the final field?
Illinois - Illinois was riding a four-game winning streak heading into the regular season finale with Rutgers, the worst team in the Big Ten. A win would have put the Illini at 9-9 in conference play and given them 19 wins on the year. Instead, Illinois gave the Scarlet Knights just their seventh win of the entire season. As a result, Illinois may have just eviscerated its chances to make the NCAA Tournament. Though the Illini do not have any truly bad losses, their best wins came against VCU and Northwestern (twice). I am not a big proponent of allowing teams into the tourney who aren't .500 in their conference, though. As a result, unless the Illini make a huge run in the Big Ten tourney, it is likely they will be left out.
Georgia Tech - Coach Josh Pastner has done an incredible job for the Yellow Jackets, who were not even supposed to be able to sniff a berth in the tourney. The Ramblin' Wreck has several big wins, most notably North Carolina, Notre Dame and Florida State in conference, along with a non-conference victory over VCU. Of course, bad losses litter the resume as well, including a 17-point loss to fellow bubble team Georgia, an early season loss to the Ohio Bobcats, and an unbelievable 53-point defeat at the hands of the Duke Blue Devils. No, that is not a typo. Ultimately, a 17-14 record, along with a losing record in the conference, will doom the Yellow Jackets. But the fact that they're even being considered is amazing.
