This article is part of our College Hoops Barometer series.
When you write about college basketball, everyone wants advice in March. That's just the way it goes. "You watch all year round, you must know something we don't!" The truth is, I don't always even win the bracket pool at work or with my friends. Let's be honest; your co-worker who couldn't distinguish between Coach K and Shaka Smart has a better chance of winning. That's what the Madness brings; you're bombarded with statistics, formulas, diagrams, depth charts, and after all that time spent crunching numbers and doing research, your spouse who picked the games by color picked a better bracket than you.
But fear not, my friends. There is hope for us yet. All hail, "The NCAA Tournament Gospel." The following five rules have been passed around and collected over the years, reprised, tweaked and edited. They highlight my strategies and theories on picking a successful bracket. I don't always pick the Final Four correctly, but when I do, these are my guidelines. Thereafter, we will delve into the more intriguing matchups, upsets and storylines in each region for the 2016 NCAA Tournament. Behold, the Commandments of Madness.
1. Do not pick all four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four. First of all, where's the fun in that? Second, the only year since seeding began in 1979 that four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four was 2008. In fact, three No. 1 seeds have made it just four times in the same year in the modern era.
When you write about college basketball, everyone wants advice in March. That's just the way it goes. "You watch all year round, you must know something we don't!" The truth is, I don't always even win the bracket pool at work or with my friends. Let's be honest; your co-worker who couldn't distinguish between Coach K and Shaka Smart has a better chance of winning. That's what the Madness brings; you're bombarded with statistics, formulas, diagrams, depth charts, and after all that time spent crunching numbers and doing research, your spouse who picked the games by color picked a better bracket than you.
But fear not, my friends. There is hope for us yet. All hail, "The NCAA Tournament Gospel." The following five rules have been passed around and collected over the years, reprised, tweaked and edited. They highlight my strategies and theories on picking a successful bracket. I don't always pick the Final Four correctly, but when I do, these are my guidelines. Thereafter, we will delve into the more intriguing matchups, upsets and storylines in each region for the 2016 NCAA Tournament. Behold, the Commandments of Madness.
1. Do not pick all four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four. First of all, where's the fun in that? Second, the only year since seeding began in 1979 that four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four was 2008. In fact, three No. 1 seeds have made it just four times in the same year in the modern era. However, it is worth noting that three No. 1 seeds did make the Final Four in 2015.
2. If you don't like a high-seeded squad, pick it to go out as soon as reasonably possible. So, if you don't believe in, say, Villanova, pick the Wildcats to lose once they get past the No. 15 seed. You'll be the only one who picks that game correctly, and even if it's an incorrect selection, you wouldn't have had the Wildcats going that far anyway.
3. There are no bragging rights for picking a No. 10 over a No. 7 seed, or a No. 9 over a No. 8 seed. These are not upsets. All those teams are basically even. Take bigger risks! Even the 11-6 matchup is starting to not feel like an upset anymore. Since 2010, the No. 11 seed has won the matchup 50 percent of the time.
4. While we're on the subject of upsets, pick at least one 12-5 trap game. Maybe two. Since the NCAA expanded to at least 64 teams, it's happens about once every three contests. Even more of a reason to pick at least one? It did not happen once last season. You do the math; the odds are in your favor. That hadn't happened since 2007. From 2008-2014, No. 12 seeds were 15-13 against the No. 5 squad.
5. Pick at least one seed lower than a 10 to make the Sweet 16. Last season, UCLA busted the bracket, going from the play-in game to the Sweet 16. Besides, I'd rather pick the game by which mascot would win in a fight than pick all favorites.
Now that you're primed to fill out that winning bracket, let's take a more in-depth look at the regions.
MIDWEST REGION
Michigan State will be favored to win this region, even though the Spartans are the No. 2 seed and the Hoos are No. 1. MSU coach Tom Izzo has been to seven Final Fours since 1999, including last season as a No. 7 seed. This year's squad is even better than last year's version, led by perhaps the best player in the field, Denzel Valentine. Virginia was a No. 2 seed last year, by the way. The Cavaliers lost in the Sweet 16. Who beat them, you ask? None other than Izzo and the Spartans.
The 12-5 trap game is my specialty, and Arkansas-Little Rock against Purdue is a true clash of styles. Arkansas-Little Rock shot 39 percent from beyond the arc as a team, 17th in the nation. Meanwhile, Purdue has two 7-footers at its disposal in A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas. In a classic matchup between David versus Goliath, the three-point shot can be the great equalizer. The Boilermakers should be wary of the Trojans. Also, watch out for No. 13 Iona against Iowa State in what should be a track meet. A.J. English of the Gaels is the best scorer you don't know about.
SOUTH REGION
From top to bottom, this feels like the most talented region, at least on paper. Kansas ended the season on a 14-game winning streak, Villanova was once the No. 1 ranked team in the country, Maryland and Iowa were top-5 squads and Miami and California have been flexing their collective muscles all season. Add in a surging UConn squad (watch out for Daniel Hamilton playing the hybrid role of Kemba Walker/Shabazz Napier) and this region is nearly impossible to predict. Could the Huskies make yet another magical run in March? It would be foolish to count them out, even as a No. 9 seed.
Otherwise, due to this region being so top heavy, the upsets may be few and far between. The classic 5-12 trap game is intriguing between Maryland and South Dakota State, but mostly because their mascots are essentially the tortoise and the hare (Terrapins and Jackrabbits). The only true bracket buster in this region seems to be Wichita State. The Shockers have seniors Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet, who have been on the tournament stage numerous times and know what it takes to win in March. As a No. 11 seed, the Shockers got past Vanderbilt in the play-in game and should give Arizona all it can handle.
WEST REGION
Oregon surprised many pundits with a selection as the No. 1 seed in the West. I thought Michigan State deserved it more, but perhaps that's splitting hairs. The Ducks will have their hands full in the second round against St. Joseph's, though. Likewise, who says the committee does not project future matchups? Possible matchups in the lower half of the West region include an in-state rivalry between Texas and Texas A&M, the Red River Rivalry between Texas and Oklahoma, or a clash between Shaka Smart's former team (VCU) and his current squad (Texas).
As for upsets, I like the No. 12 and No. 13 seeds in this region as well. Yale has the size to battle the rough and tumble Baylor Bears; the Bulldogs were ranked 20th in the country in rebounding. Meanwhile, Duke has been such an inconsistent squad since the loss of forward Amile Jefferson. Grayson Allen can score, and Brandon Ingram is a future NBA star, but the Blue Devils are otherwise thin with little margin for error. This team reminds me more of the 2014 squad that lost to Mercer than the 2015 squad that won the national title.
EAST REGION
As you can tell, I usually go 12-seed-crazy in my brackets. The Mocs of Chattanooga have a decent chance at shocking Indiana. The Hoosiers have been prone to the occasional dud, despite winning the regular-season crown in the Big Ten. Indiana had losses against UNLV, Wake Forest and Penn State this season, all teams that did not even make the Big Dance. Likewise, the Hoosiers were bounced in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament by Michigan, a squad which many experts thought did not deserve to be included in the Field of 68, either.
Coach John Calipari was mad his Wildcats, the SEC Champions, were only a No. 4 seed. However, he will be even more upset once he watches tape of his opponent Stony Brook and forward Jameel Warney. The senior torched Vermont for 43 points in the America East Championship. The Wildcats are guard-heavy this season behind Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray, so they may have a difficult time contending with Warney and the Seawolves down low. Not saying Stony Brook will win, but coach Cal better stop complaining about the seed and start preparing for SBU.
FINAL FOUR
I wrote this last year, and I'll say it again; I have almost no faith in Villanova or Virginia as high seeds. I have similar thoughts about Xavier, though without the recent resume of early exits to back up my gut feeling. On paper, Kansas should win the South, but watch out for Miami or Maryland. Michigan State has a pretty clear path to the Final Four, but could this be the year Virginia finally breaks through under coach Tony Bennett? Texas A&M is getting a lot of love over up-and-down Oklahoma, but the Aggies can be inconsistent too. If Buddy Hield gets hot, the Sooners could make it to Houston. Suffice to say, I'm not a big believer in the Pac-12 (sorry, Oregon). Meanwhile, the matchup between Kentucky and North Carolina in the Sweet 16 could determine the winner of the East.
Predictions? Michigan State, Oklahoma, Miami and North Carolina. Oklahoma vs. Michigan State in the national championship. Valentine vs. Hield, the two seniors vying for National Player of the Year. I've got Sparty cutting down the nets. Don't ever doubt a Tom Izzo squad in March, and certainly not one as talented as this.
