This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Welcome to the 2023-24 college basketball season! Opening night will deliver the vast majority of teams in action, and DraftKings will feature a 12-game slate with a $10,000 top prize up for grabs.
Here at RotoWire, we'll be using this format to cover the larger DFS slates all season long. Each preview will contain picks from the upper, middle and value tiers. The focus will largely be on DraftKings due to the larger contest sizes and more reactive pricing, but we'll occasionally sneak in a FanDuel special for values that are simply too good to pass up. We're also looking into offering more PrizePicks content for the 2023-24 season.
On days that don't have long-form advice columns, we recommend checking out our brand new College Basketball DFS Recommendations page, where a number of experienced DFS players and college basketball editors on our staff will nominate their favorite plays by salary tier. These recommendations will be denoted with a star on our lineup optimizer, which I'll go into more detail on below.
With this being the inaugural column for the 2023-24 season, I first want to run down a few of the tools we offer here on RotoWire. The home base for most of our subscribers is our newly-redesigned DFS College Basketball Lineup Optimizer, but as any DFS player knows, an optimizer is only as good as how you use it. Sure, go ahead and give the default optimizer a spin, but if there's a play you're not confident in, we encourage using the red X to remove them from your player pool. Think our formula might overvalue a mid-major player whose stats are built on lower competition? Boom, trust your gut and eliminate them from the pool. This also works great with injured players who we're pretty sure will be out but don't know definitively yet (such as Akok Akok and Noah Farrakhan on opening night). You can also "like" a player to increase their projection by 20 percent, or manually change a projection to whatever you like! If you agree with any of my recommendations below, use the padlock button to make sure they are featured in your lineup, or if mass entering, increase their minimum exposure percentage via the customizations menu. In addition to exposure, the "Customizations" menu at the top of the screen features a whole new assortment of options for variance, custom groups and more.
Some of my other favorite tools include the DFS Matchup Info page, where you can sort the games by implied total, as well as offensive/defensive efficiency stats calculated by our our developers behind the scenes. It's the perfect place to get started, as it will help you find out which games to target. Here's a sneak peek at what that page looks like for opening night:
Once we get a few games into the season, our Advanced College Basketball Lineups page is a resource that's second to none. Here, you'll be able to view recent starters for each team in the player pool alongside salaries, with stats like minutes, usage and fantasy PPG included. It's perfect for researching mid-majors early in the year. You can also click on any team logo to navigate to a team-specific page, which shows usage from last year among other stats. Here's one for Kansas, which we'll refer to later in this column.
Last but certainly not least, any DFS player knows that the best potential values are often created by injuries, so it's imperative to check out our College Basketball Injury Report, which you can filter by the DFS slate of your choice. Since it's a big opening night, I'll highlight the key injury situations to make note of for the main DraftKings slate:
West Virginia: This team is a mess right now. Kerr Kriisa ($7,100) is suspended for the first nine games of the season. RaeQuan Battle ($6,400) was denied his eligibility waiver, and the same could very well happen to Noah Farrakhan. On top of that, in a scary situation, projected starter Akok Akok collapsed on the court in an exhibition game and is likely out as well. This leaves plenty of extra minutes available for Quinn Slazinski ($6,600), Kobe Johnson ($6,300), Seth Wilson ($6,200) and Josiah Harris ($6,000), though the pricing is a little stiff for my liking, especially with a mediocre implied total.
Kentucky: Injuries have decimated the frontcourt for Big Blue, as five star freshman Aaron Bradshaw ($6,900) and up-and-comer Ugonna Onyenso ($6,200) are both expected to be out until late-November. This boosts the outlook for fifth-year senior Tre Mitchell ($7,500), who is one of the few experienced members of this year's team and has produced considerably in exhibition play. Second-year wing Adou Thiero ($6,200) also stands to pick up significantly more minutes.
Connecticut: Donovan Clingan (foot) could be available for the opener, but with no exhibition games on the schedule, it's a risky play. He's expected to have a breakout season, as he had stellar per-minute numbers last year but had to play behind Adama Sanogo. If he sits, the ceiling gets higher for Alex Karaban ($7,200), or a riskier Samson Johnson ($5,700) could be in play.
Kansas State: The Wildcats face USC in the highest over/under game on the slate, and projected starting center Nae'Qwan Tomlin has been suspended following a disorderly conduct arrest. Arthur Kaluma ($7,600) and David N'Guessan ($6,400) stand to benefit, but prices are a little high for them to be considered "chalk."
Alabama: Leading returning scorer Mark Sears ($7,100) has missed exhibition games with a groin injury, and if the team decides to play it cautious as 22-point favorites, Aaron Estrada ($8,900) becomes more attractive, as he should dominate the backcourt shot volume. Slight bump to Rylan Griffen ($6,400) as well in that scenario.
If you like what you see or just want to give these tools a try, head to rotowire.com/free for a free 48-hour trial. We won't ask for a credit card, and the trial simply expires at its conclusion. That also covers every other sport on the site.
Without further delay, let's jump into my favorite plays on the Tuesday college basketball slate.
Top Players
Zach Edey, F, Purdue ($10,000 DK)
He's the only five-figure price tag on the slate, but this could easily be the cheapest we see reigning National Player of the Year all season. Don't overthink this one, especially with plenty of value out there on opening night. Edey is coming off a season in which he averaged 22.3 points, 12.9 rebounds and 2.1 blocks, and he goes up against an up-tempo Samford squad that lost starting center Logan Dye (13.3 ppg, 5.1 rpg) to graduation. A lopsided game is Edey's biggest threat, but the same logic can apply to any of the upper tier of players on this slate.
Hunter Dickinson, F, Kansas ($9,300 DK)
The Jayhawks enter with the day's highest implied scoring total (85.0), and Dickinson -- a Michigan transfer coming off a 18.5 ppg & 9.0 rpg season -- is poised to be the team's usage leader. He recently tallied 22 points, nine boards and a pair of blocks in the team's most relevant exhibition against Illinois that ended in an 82-75 loss. Dickinson's opponent, North Carolina Central, seems to be in line for significant regression in 2023-24. The Eagles' KenPom ranking is more than 100 spots lower than where they finished 2022-23, and the defense sits at No. 274 in projected efficiency. This is a team that ranked No. 236 in defensive rebounding rate last season and lost all three of the players who saw center minutes, including 7-0 Brendan Medley-Bacon and 6-10 Cameron Butler. Now, the tallest player on the roster is 6-9. Dickinson has range, but he probably won't need it, as he'll get whatever he needs in the paint for as long as the game is close.
Also Considered: I'm personally more of a GPP player, so I generally tend to feature the big men with 20-20 ceilings in this section of the column. Armando Bacot ($9,200) and Jesse Edwards ($8,700) fit that bill, as does Donovan Clingan ($8,400) if he's cleared for a full workload. Kyle Filipowski ($9,000) is more of a stretch-4/versatile big man that might see center minutes by default, but he shouldn't be left out of player pools as an experienced option and projected usage leader for Duke. We also can't forget about top-tier guards such as Tyler Kolek ($9,100) and A.J. Hoggard ($8,600), who might not have the same ceiling, but have a higher floor suited for cash games due to little-to-no foul trouble risk. Aaron Estrada ($8,900) should also be in the mix as a high-volume scoring option on a team that will need it, especially if Sears ends up sitting.
Middle Tier
Isaiah Collier, G, USC ($7,000 DK)
DraftKings was aggressive with its freshman pricing this year, but Collier appears to be one of the few potential buy-low options on the slate. The 6-5 point guard is ESPN's No. 1-ranked recruit for the class of 2023 and is ranked No. 2 on 247Sport's list. A McDonald's All-American, Collier also collected preseason all-Pac-12 honors and a spot on the Bob Cousy Award watchlist, in addition to a prominent spot on just about every all-freshman team or rankings list. The one problem is USC doesn't have any official exhibition games or stats posted, so it's unclear how Collier might mesh with backcourt running mate Boogie Ellis ($7,800). However, the Trojans find themselves as three-point road favorites -- the tightest spread on the slate and one of only two in single digits -- in a game with the highest over/under (144.5) of the 12 featured contests. That means that a blowout is unlikely and the starters should see heavy minutes -- something that can't be guaranteed for any other recommendation in this column.
Kevin McCullar, G, Kansas ($6,700 DK)
Assuming Dickinson is a relatively popular play, McCullar is a perfectly safe pivot that still lets DFS players get a piece of the day's highest projected scoring team. Now in his second season with the program, the fifth-year senior is coming off a year in which he saw career-bests in scoring (10.7 ppg), rebounding (7.0 rpg) and steals (2.0 spg), in addition to his best shooting percentage (44.4) since his freshman year. His production isn't scoring dependent, which gives him a high floor for cash games.
Kameron Jones, G, Marquette ($6,400 DK)
Jones led last year's Marquette starters in usage rate, and the team brings back largely the same supporting cast, sans O-Max Prosper. The Golden Eagles also have the second-highest implied point total on the slate (after Kansas) due to facing an NIU squad that KenPom projects at an above-average pace (No. 106) and well below-average defense (No. 260). There's a little blowout risk, as well as the fact that Jones' production is largely scoring dependent, but the ceiling isn't that far off from Tyler Kolek ($9,100), and Jones comes at a significantly lower price tag.
Jermaine Marshall, F, Samford ($5,400 DK)
Purdue's slow pace and solid defense is fuel for fantasy nightmares, but Marshall is a player that surpassed 40 DraftKings points three times in the last three weeks of the 2022-23 season. As the power forward, he also doesn't get a direct matchup against Zach Edey, though Edey will still be protecting the rim. We're hoping high volume and a little garbage time could lead to 4-5x. There's some foul trouble risk, though, as he fouled out six times in 31 games last year. Probably best left for GPPs.
Value Plays
Robert Dillingham, G, Kentucky ($4,900 DK)
Dillingham hasn't started yet in exhibition play, but he's out-performed projected starting point guard D.J. Wagner, at least statistically. After dropping 40 points in a team scrimmage, he proceeded to put up 16 points and five assists in an exhibition (more than Wagner in both categories). Even if he's not starting, he'll be an effective sixth man for a Kentucky team that's taking on New Mexico State -- a program essentially starting from scratch after ending its season early last year.
Terrence Edwards, G/F, James Madison ($4,800 DK)
This is another poor matchup against Michigan State, but Edwards seems to at least have a reasonable floor, finishing last year with 19+ DraftKings points in 15 of his last 16 games -- a stretch that included efforts of 50.3 and 49.5 DK points. He also provides rare G/F flexibility -- a relatively rare DK trait that can help DFS players squeeze in more preferred options.
Xavier Amos, F, Northern Illinois ($4,200 DK)
This is a longshot play based purely on exhibition stats. He won't come up in optimizers/formulas after not appearing in a game after Jan 3 last season (maybe an injury? MAC injury news can be sparse), so ownership should be low. In NIU's only exhibition game, Amos started and took four more shots than any other Huskies player, in addition to picking up nine boards and four blocks. He finished with 14 points, though 10 came in the first 5:20 of the game. We're hoping Amos avoids foul trouble and finds garbage-time production here in an up-tempo game, and he shouldn't be subject to too many turnovers from Marquette's havoc defense, as he doesn't do much ball-handling.
Pro Tip: RotoWire doesn't get exhibition stats from our stats provider, but they're still out there on many team websites. Just Google "[team] + men's basketball schedule" and it's often available. Finding these box scores, especially from smaller schools, is often key to discovering DFS value early in the season. In fact, I was led to this play by checking on the status of Keshawn Williams ($6,000) -- a stellar producer who suffered an ACL injury in February (he did not play in the exhibition).
Guy Fauntleroy, G, North Carolina Central ($3,000 DK)
Here's an even riskier one. I would have loved to see Fauntleroy in exhibition play, but the Eagles did not afford us that luxury. Last time we saw the sophomore guard in action, he was finishing the season with performances of 31.3, 34.0, 29.0 and 17.5 DK points while with Austin Peay. By most preseason metrics, this year's NC Central team is equal or worse to that squad. Assuming he takes on a similar role, there's a path to 5x or greater at minimum price.
FanDuel Special
Jay Pal, G, San Diego State ($4,000 FD)
Here's a player that will cost you $7,200 on DraftKings but minimum price here on FanDuel. He averaged 12.3 points and 6.9 rebounds across 31.1 minutes as a full-time starter for Campbell last year. There as a late-September ankle injury, but he appeared in exhibition play to calm those concerns. In addition to the pricing error, Pal is essentially a center, so you're filling a a guard spot with a big man who has double-double potential.
Cam Carter, G, ($4,300 FG)
What we have hear is another misprice, as Carter started 36 games for the Wildcats last year. While he averaged just 6.5 points and 3.0 rebounds in 26.1 minutes, I would expect his role to grow with Markquis Nowell and Desi Sills no longer in the picture. He also put up 20 points in a recent exhibition. Carter can be had here for $2400 less than is DraftKings price and is essentially the chalk play of the day on FanDuel.
