DFS College Basketball: Saturday Preview and Picks

DFS College Basketball: Saturday Preview and Picks

This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.

We've made it to the final regular-season weekend of the college hoops season. Pat yourself on the back for completing the grind. This column ran hot during the week, so let's see if we can keep it going and finish with a bang.

Three slates per usual for our Saturday, featuring a total of 30 games and $25,000 in total prizes across each slate's largest tournament.

Main Slate

12 games get us going tipping between 12:00 and 4:00 p.m. EST. $5,000 is available to the winner of DK's big tournament. Four players are valued at $9,000 or greater, though none reach five-figures.

We've got some massive game totals to target with Alabama-Arkansas at 175.5, Memphis-FAU at 162.5, and Kentucky-Tennessee at 164. The Volunteers' Dalton Knecht ($8,300) seems curiously valued down. He struggled against the Wildcats before, and the Vols have little to play for here. There are other options in this salary tier, but something just seems fishy about Knecht's valuation. 

Top Targets

Mark Sears, G, Alabama ($8,800)

I initially wanted to target Tramon Mark on the other side of this matchup. And while I still have plenty of interest there, for $900 more I'm willing to go up to Sears for a higher floor and likely higher ceiling. Alabama carries an implied total of 95.5 points, so set it and forget it with the Tide's leader. Sears has only been under 30 DKP in two of his last 13 with both resulting in 29.25. These teams play at the 11th and 34th fastest tempo per KenPom and pace can lead to turnovers in addition to scoring, where Sears averages 2.1 steals over the current stretch. 

Vladislav Goldin, F, Florida Atlantic ($7,100)

This is a fascinating game to break down for DFS. We've got a massive total, so we know we want shares and there are plenty of angles to go down with some bargains to be had within both lineups (Brandon Weatherspoon namely). I'd fault no one for going with any of the big guns here, yet Goldin stands out based on the somewhat lower salary while providing us a frontcourt anchor. Over his last 10 games, he's listed a 26.7 percent usage rate while averaging 16.9 points, 5.8 rebounds 1.0 assists and 1.5 blocks. Goldin has only failed to return 3.7x once across his last seven and previously posted a stable 31.0 DKP against Memphis. Knock on wood, but fouls haven't been an issue of late.

Middle Tier

Andersson Garcia, F, Texas A&M ($6,700)

I loathe this salary point and will admit to jumping around and not writing this column in order, as Garcia was the last player added and he's honestly not worth it if you're trying to pay up for a high-end option. But the middle-tier of forwards on this slate is ugly, making my preference to take two top selections, a bargain and round out your lineup with guards. Garcia does have merit, having only failed to reach 23.0 DKP twice from his last 16 games while pulling down 10-plus rebounds nine times. With 30 minutes in a close matchup where both can score at least 72, he should score enough to pair with his window work to provide stability.

Dan Skillings, G, Cincinnati ($6,500)

We're getting a minor salary break on Skillings, who was $700 higher a few weeks ago. He showed no signs of issues from a hip injury that cost him one game and gave us this break, so it's a nice spot to pounce. Over his last five starts, Skillins is averaging 30.2 minutes and a 26.6 percent usage rate. He's posted at least 28.5 DKP in three of those while averaging 10.8 points and 7.8 rebounds. The latter has been there all season, though the scoring ceiling isn't huge as he's only topped 20 points four times this season. The pace here favors the Bearcats and their implied total of 79.5, so there's no reason to think Skillings won't flirt with a double-double. He previously earned 22.25 DKP against WVU, a game where he took 19 shots. More should fall for Skillings on Saturday.

Bargain Options

Glenn Taylor, F, St. John's ($4,700)

What we know is Georgetown doesn't play defense ranking 321st in efficiency while allowing 90 points to the Red Storm. You can make a case for any of St. John's three top options, though all seem to lack high-end upside of late and Jordan Dingle is feast-or-famine at a majorly rising salary - and that's just too risky for me. As such, I'll take a low-end shot on Taylor and mitigate risk due to the valuation. Taylor has started the last four while logging 19 minutes in two of those and producing 4.8 DKP, so he can still bottom out. But in the other two starts, he's averaged 31 minutes, 10.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 2.0 steals. That's massive upside potential in a plus matchup at value.

Le'Tre Darthard, G, Oklahoma ($4,400)

This comes with the caveat that Javian McCollum misses Saturday's matchup, which isn't guaranteed yet. But with McCollum out for the Sooners last time, Darthard saw 41 minutes, managed to get to the foul line 14 times, and produced 24.75 DKP. His previous outing to this start showed him hitting 5-of-7 from 3-point range against a stingy Houston side. Darthard hasn't displayed much of anything in terms of peripherals, so there's minimal upside. But if the minutes are there, he can't help but provide a return at this low number. Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi is an easy pivot if we get word McCollum will return.

Afternoon Slate

10 games here, spanning from 5:00 to 8:00 p.m. EST. A somewhat disappointing $1,000 first-place prize is available when we've got North Carolina at Duke, but it is what it is. Scoring is still available, though not at the true high-end as the main slate. All come with totals of at least 140 except for Virginia-Georgia Tech, yet only two top 150.

Only two players here top $9,000, so we should be able to build from balance or take shots at the upper-tier with lower usage.

Top Targets

Reece Beekman, G, Virginia ($8,100)

I almost always avoid anything Virginia or their opponents, but for a GPP I like taking a shot on Beekman Saturday. He simply is their offense, and you have to assume low roster percentages. We need 32.5 DKP for a 4x return, and Beekman has only been under 29.25 twice across his last 14 outings. He smashed Georgia Tech for a season-high 48 with a 19-point, six-rebound, 11-assist, two-steal line where Virginia erupted for 75 points. Beekman's all-around game keeps his floor and ceiling high.

PJ Hall, F, Clemson ($7,500) or Kyle Filipowski, F, Duke ($7,400)

These two forwards are valued so favorably I can't leave one out of this column. I'd expect Filipowski to draw heavy roster percentages paired with the marquee matchup and high-scoring game total. In three head-to-heads against UNC over his career, he's averaging 19.3 points and 8.3 rebounds. Using both represents a solid foundation for a frontcourt and doesn't hurt you financially. But I like Hall at this salary point. He's been far more consistent than Filipowski, faces the statistically worse defense, and his team only list a four-point implied total lower than Duke's. Hall is also averaging 19.3 points and 8.0 rebounds across his last three with a 30.0 DKP floor.

Middle Tier

Jaylin Williams, F, Auburn ($6,200)

Williams hasn't enjoyed a blowup performance since his one-game absence due to injury, and that's just fine by me as it keeps the salary in check. He's been as high as $7,500 with has three games producing a 40-plus DKP return, so we know there's upside. But Williams has averaged 22.3 in three since returning, which is a stable 3.6x return. Auburn rotates too much to expect him to explode, though they do have an 83.25-point implied total and he's a rock-solid, medium-valued forward to build around.

Cormac Ryan, G, North Carolina ($5,400)

In their first meeting, Duke made a clear effort to not allow R.J. Davis to beat them. It didn't work on the scoreboard, but they somewhat neutralized UNC's star guard, and I don't see that strategy changing as they aren't going to allow him to go for 40 and shut everyone else down. This would open up opportunity for Ryan to get some outside looks. He needs under 22 DKP to return at 4x, and he did that in an earlier meeting with a diverse 9-3-2-2 line, which is certainly replicable with 30-plus minutes. Ryan posted a similar output at Duke last year while also lighting up the Blue Devils up in 2020 at Cameron for 28 points in 2020.

Bargain Options

Jadrian Tracey, G, Oregon ($4,800)

Tracey has started 13 in a row, which is a rare find at this salary point. Yes, he's valued this low for a reason, but he's only failed to reach double-digit fantasy points twice during that stretch with one being his first start. That came against Saturday's opponent Utah, yet I'm willing to give Tracey a pass since the minutes have trended up. He's hit 19.5 DKP or better in six outings, and there's no reason to think he'll bottom out here in a spot where 25-plus minutes should come while the Ducks are expected to score at least points and enter as narrow favorites. 

Kachi Nzeh, F, Xavier ($4,700)

Xavier's rotations have recently been a game-to-game thing, so there's risk in Nzeh bottoming out. Over his last six appearances, he's posted a 7.5 DKP total in two while averaging 18.7 from the other four while starting each of the last three. Nzeh only has an 11.3 percent usage rate over this stretch, so we're banking on 20-plus minutes and a steady dose of rebounds. It's also a matchup we likely want to target with a 157-point total, which could also help his scoring potential. Ultimately, Nzeh is a cheap in to a plus game and gives you a cheap forward to round out the build.

Evening Slate

Eight games are featured in our nightcap, with a similar $1,000 first-place prize and $5,000 total prize pool in DraftKings main tournament where $10 gets you a 1-in-588 chance at winning.

Tipoffs are from 8:30 to 11:00 p.m. EST. No player is higher than $9,000, so it's a solid opportunity to take some high-end options while still not having to force extreme value. Two games project totals under 140 points, while four top 150 and make for clear targets.

Top Targets

Great Osobor, F, Utah State ($8,800)

It's rare I suggest the top-salaried player on a slate, but the forward spot is presenting very weakly Saturday evening. And at under $9,000, I'm siding with taking Osobor for the floor and hope a ceiling manifests. He's earned 38 DKP or higher in four of his last five and earned 32.5 against New Mexico earlier in the year. If that's the downside, it's a reasonable payup with no risk. The Lobos rank fifth nationally in tempo, further bettering Osobor's prospects.

Oumar Ballo, F, Arizona ($7,800)

We've got a solid salary dip here on Ballo, who was $700 higher two games before with a $900 peak this season. And it's seemingly unjustified as he's off a bad effort, but averaged 15.1 points, 12.9 rebounds and 1.8 blocks with a 32.75 DKP floor and four north of 40 fantasy points across nine prior outings. Ballo wasn't elite against USC the last time they met by only scoring eight points, but still netted 31.25 DKP and that works fine at the reduced valuation.

Middle Tier

Jaelen House, G, New Mexico ($6,900)

House hasn't shot well all year hitting only 37.0 percent, though he's in a terrible funk of lat by only connecting on 24.6 percent of his attempts over his last four. He's still hoisting 14.3 shots in those matchups, and should snap out of it at some point as he was successful 41.5 percent or higher the last two seasons. House chips in 3.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.1 steals per nightly, so the poor shooting is the only thing keeping him from a big return. He's discounted $1,200 from earlier this year and should be heavily involved as New Mexico lists an implied team total of 78.5 points. 

Al-Amir Dawes, G, Seton Hall ($5,600)

Dawes is in a two-game funk where he's combined for 14 points, one rebound and three assists while taking 11 shots. Those outings came against Villanova and Connecticut, who are infinitely better than Saturday's opponent in DePaul when it comes to defense and slowing tempo. Prior to the current struggle, Dawes had attempted double-digit shots in 15 straight while averaging 16.5 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.2 steals. The Pirates should run away with this game, which makes him a bit risky as a scoring-first fantasy option whose minutes may not need to hit 30, but it's a clear bounceback spot at a reduced salary.

Bargain Options

Trevin Knell, G, BYU ($4,900)

Knell has started eight straight while posting a modest 21.2 percent usage rate, averaging 11.4 points and 2.3 rebounds. That alone is good enough for a sub-$5,000 player. But when we consider the matchup where BYU is expected to score 83 points alongside of the fact that Knell has been valued as high as $7,100 this season, we could have something good here. The Cougars are deep and production comes from varying spots to create some volatility, though it's baked into the reduced expense. And Knell previously posted 22.5 DKP against Oklahoma State.

Derek Fountain, F, LSU ($4,500)

Fountain has started six straight and posted double-digit fantasy points from the last five to establish a 2x floor at worst. Missouri hasn't won since Dec. 30 and rank 359th in offensive rebound percentage allowed. Fountain doesn't log much over 20 minutes, but his length should allow for a cheap source of boards and stick-backs.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Chris Bennett plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: k30kittles, DraftKings: k30kittles.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Bennett
Bennett covers baseball, college football and college basketball for RotoWire. Before turning to fantasy writing, he worked in scouting/player development for the Atlanta Braves and Montreal Expos. He's also a fan of the ACC.
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