This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Top Players:
Zion Williamson, Duke ($9,200 FD, $10,700 DK): KenPom gives Duke a 97 percent chance to win this road matchup, so the biggest risk to playing Zion (or his counterpart RJ Barrett - $8,800 FD, $10,100 DK) is this game getting out of hand early. Wake Forest and their No. 216 defense won't be able to do much to stop them, especially with a group of largely-inexperienced post players that have little match for Zion's athleticism. Furthermore, the Demon Deacons didn't have a particularly strong non-conference schedule to get them ready for this challenge, with Tennessee (a 19-point loss) being the only top-80 KenPom team they faced. Zion is perfectly capable of filling the stat sheet with only 20 minutes of playing time, however, so I wouldn't advise fading the Duke studs entirely. He had 25 & 10 across just 22 minutes Saturday against Clemson, after all.
Grant Williams, Tennessee ($9,100 FD, $10,500 DK): Williams has yet to score less than 32 FanDuel points in a game this year, and he's limited himself to just two personal fouls in each of his last four games (knock on wood), which makes him a pretty safe bet for cash games. He's admittedly in a tough spot against the 9-3 Tigers, a team that plays at an incredibly slow tempo (No. 327, per KenPom). You could look at this situation from the other side of the coin, as Missouri has a chance to keep this close enough for Williams to get all
Top Players:
Zion Williamson, Duke ($9,200 FD, $10,700 DK): KenPom gives Duke a 97 percent chance to win this road matchup, so the biggest risk to playing Zion (or his counterpart RJ Barrett - $8,800 FD, $10,100 DK) is this game getting out of hand early. Wake Forest and their No. 216 defense won't be able to do much to stop them, especially with a group of largely-inexperienced post players that have little match for Zion's athleticism. Furthermore, the Demon Deacons didn't have a particularly strong non-conference schedule to get them ready for this challenge, with Tennessee (a 19-point loss) being the only top-80 KenPom team they faced. Zion is perfectly capable of filling the stat sheet with only 20 minutes of playing time, however, so I wouldn't advise fading the Duke studs entirely. He had 25 & 10 across just 22 minutes Saturday against Clemson, after all.
Grant Williams, Tennessee ($9,100 FD, $10,500 DK): Williams has yet to score less than 32 FanDuel points in a game this year, and he's limited himself to just two personal fouls in each of his last four games (knock on wood), which makes him a pretty safe bet for cash games. He's admittedly in a tough spot against the 9-3 Tigers, a team that plays at an incredibly slow tempo (No. 327, per KenPom). You could look at this situation from the other side of the coin, as Missouri has a chance to keep this close enough for Williams to get all the minutes he can handle. Each top play Tuesday has some inherent risk involved, but there's little reason to think Williams will suddenly slow down.
Shamorie Ponds, St. John's ($9,000 FD): Villanova may not be a powerhouse in 2018-19, but they're still a tough fantasy matchup. They rank No. 60 in defensive efficiency and No. 346 in tempo, which generally isn't a great sign for a volume shooter like Ponds. Nonetheless, I can't argue against using a player this hot. He put up a 37-3-6 line Saturday against Georgetown, which followed up a 26-7-5 effort in the previous game against Marquette. Even on an off shooting day, his baseline gets lifted by assists and steals. He might have one of the evening's higher ceilings in what's expected to be a closely-contested matchup. At right about this time last season, Ponds dropped 37 (15-28 FG) against a much better Villanova team.
Bruno Fernando, Maryland ($8,400 FD): The Gophers held Wisconsin's Ethan Happ to 36.1 FanDuel points last Thursday, which is a pretty off night by his standards. Even though the two are different types of post players -- Happ more finesse and Fernando more power -- fantasy owners may want to exercise caution in this spot. Minnesota does play at an above-average tempo, but the have the nation's No. 42 ranking in defensive efficiency, and that will only trend upwards as their post players get healthier. Sophomore Eric Curry recently returned to aid a frontcourt led by starters Jordan Murphy and Daniel Oturu.
Games to Target:
NC State (-2) vs. North Carolina, o/u 173.5, 9:00 p.m. EST
This game has the highest over/under on the slate by a mile, and is loaded with affordable, middle-tier options to help construct your lineups. While Luke Maye ($7,900 FD, $8,100 DK) has taken a slight downturn statistically since last year, he's a key part of any UNC stack that draws the nation's 15th-fastest paced team as an opponent. Cam Johnson ($7,300 FD, $7,200 DK) will also be in a prime spot to set a new season-high, while freshman Coby White ($6,700 FD, $6,500 DK) is the surprise leader in usage rate and shot percentage. He's slightly more volatile than Johnson, but arguably has a higher ceiling after posting a 33-point effort at Texas earlier this year.
NC State is a little bit tougher to figure out, but going up against the fifth-fastest team in the country gives a boost to everyone involved. Torin Dorn ($7,200 FD. $7,000 DK) has cooled off since his hot start, but it would still be wise to get some exposure. C.J. Bryce ($6,400 FD, $5,900 DK) posted an effort of 37.2 FanDuel points just two games ago, but had been held to under 20 in the previous five before that. Devon Daniels ($6,300 FD, $5,700 DK) is worth watching out for after re-entering the starting lineup last Thursday and recording 19 points and eight rebounds. It was the third time in his last four he's recorded eight or more boards. Daniels replaced Markell Johnson ($6,100 FD, $6,100 DK) in the starting five last game, but Johnson still posted 20 points, four rebounds and five assists. Johnson might be the way to go here, as his usage rate is nearly identical to both Dorn and Daniels, to go along with a significantly better KenPom offensive rating.
Michigan St. (-7) vs. Purdue, o/u 152.5, 9:00 p.m. EST
After the Duke game and the aforementioned ACC duo, this game is next up when it comes to over/under (at least on FanDuel -- DraftKings includes the Buffalo/Toledo game). I'll go into further detail on the injury situation below, but what's important to note is that Cassius Winston ($8,200 FD, $8,600 DK) and Matt McQuaid ($5,700 FD, $4,300 DK) will be expected to shoulder more of the workload with the Spartans potentially down down a few men in the backcourt. McQuaid ends up as one of my favorite DraftKings plays, as the $1,400 price discrepancy between sites is the largest on the entire slate. Since Jeremy Langford has been out of the lineup, McQuaid has had games of 20.25 and 23.5 DK points.
For Purdue, Carsen Edwards ($8,400 FD, $9,700 DK) always merits some type of consideration, though he scored just 14 points on 5-of-15 shooting last year against the Spartans, with little in terms of peripherals. Scanning through Michigan State's most noteworthy box scores, they've done a pretty good job defending primary post players. Guards that play off the ball, such as Ryan McMahon (20 points), Quentin Grimes (21 points) and Kerwin Roach (15 points) appear to have had more success. For Purdue, that might be Ryan Cline ($6,300 FD, $6,000 DK) or Nojel Eastern ($5,200 FD, $4,400 DK), though I generally prefer the aforementioned game a bit when attacking that tier.
Games to Avoid:
Texas Tech (-6.5) vs. Oklahoma, o/u 132, 9:00 p.m. EST
I learned my lesson last week when I thought there would be a few West Virginia value plays against the Red Raiders, and that lesson is this: fade pretty much all Texas Tech opponents. They have KenPom's No. 1 most efficient defense in the the country, and with a tempo metric outside the top-200, there's little to like here. I wouldn't get too cute with Kristian Doolittle ($6,000 FD, $4,700 DK), whose price has skyrocketed above the added value you can realistically expect from a McNeace-less minutes boost, at least on FanDuel. He's much more palatable on DraftKings. Christian James ($7,900 FD, $8,100 DK) leads the way for the Sooners in usage and shot percentage, so *maybe* there's a bit of an angle as a GPP contrarian. The Texas Tech side is tough to trust for me as well -- don't forget they have KenPom's No. 6-most efficient defense. Jarrett Culver ($8,000 FD, $8,400 DK) is without question the safest play there, and there's a little bit of a price break coming off a game with a season-low 20.9 FanDuel points (22.75 on DK).
Baylor vs. Iowa State (-3), o/u 135.5, 7:00 p.m. EST
This is the second lowest over/under on the slate, as both teams sport respectable defensive numbers with nothing to get excited about in terms of pace. One play I might be able to stomach is Lindell Wigginton ($$6,500 FD, $6,100 DK), whose price is down about as low as you'll ever see it get. He's returned from injury, but is not yet back in the starting lineup because Tyrese Haliburton ($7,100 FD, $6,800 DK) has been lighting up box scores in his absence. Wigginton does have the highest usage percentage on the team, so if he gets in for even just 22 minutes, I'd be willing to bet he hits value. Baylor at home isn't particularly encouraging against a top-20 defense, but Makai Mason ($6,500 FD, $5,900 DK) is a player capable of proving me wrong, provided he doesn't have too much trouble with the lengthy Cyclones backcourt. Their power forward is the shortest player in their lineup at 6-foot-4. Tristen Clark ($8,000 FD, $7,800 DK) probably finishes with the best line, but that price means too many sacrifices elsewhere.
Injuries:
Jericho Sims, Texas (ankle): Sims sat out a Jan. 5 meeting with West Virginia, but was clearly hampered before that, logging a combined 19 minutes over the previous three games. Jaxson Hayes ($6,200 FD, $5,700 DK) has been the primary beneficiary, but his ceiling may not be high enough to warrant use even if Sims sits. Hayes has started three in a row, averaging 19.4 FanDuel PPG over that span.
Jamuni McNeace, Oklahoma (ankle): McNeace clearly hasn't been himself lately, registering a combined 20 minutes over his last three games dating back to Dec. 21. He even drew the start against Northwestern, bug logged only seven minutes of action. There will eventually be a buy-low opportunity as his salary continues to shrink, but I need to see him log 20 minutes of action in back-to-back contests before I'll consider deploying him again. In the meantime, Kristian Doolittle ($6,000 FD, $4,700 DK) has really stepped up his game, averaging 13.8 points across 31.8 minutes over his last four. It's a palatable price on DraftKings, at least.
Lamonte Turner, Tennessee (shoulder): Turner made a surprise return Saturday and logged 15 minutes off the bench in a blowout victory over Georgia. There's plenty of teams he would be a major fantasy factor on, but due to his health and the overall guard depth of the Volunteers, he's a tough one to advise turning to in most fantasy scenarios.
Kyle Ahrens, Michigan State (ankle): Ahrens started and logged 30 minutes Saturday against Ohio State, making the second-straight game he was in the starting five. He's been picking up the extra PT due to the absence of Joshua Langford (ankle), who is expected to miss at least another game. If Ahrens sits out, the minutes would go to some combination of Aaron Henry ($3,900 FD, $3,800 DK) or Gabe Brown ($3,200 FD, $3,000 DK), though neither is particularly attractive from a fantasy perspective. If anything, this makes me a little more likely to turn to Matt McQuaid ($5,700 FD, $4,300 DK) or Cassius Winston ($8,200 FD, $8,600 DK), who should get even higher usage rates in the backcourt.
