DFS College Basketball: Tuesday Preview

Top Players:

Markus Howard ($8,800 FD, $9,900 DK): Don't overthink this one. Plug in Howard, and don't look back. He's had three-straight games with 45 or more DraftKings points and now goes up against a Georgetown defense that is No. 128 in efficiency while playing at the nation's 15th-fastest tempo. Several of my lineups tonight will feature full-on Marquette stacks featuring the Houser brothers as well. There could always be a contrarian angle where Howard isn't the foundation of your lineups, but realize it's a long shot and limit it to GPPs.

Jessie Govan ($8,700 FD, $9,500 DK): Govan is coming off his best game of the season with 33 points, 14 rebounds and four blocks, resulting in a massive 64-point effort on DraftKings. Looking ahead to Marquette, Govan is a more imposing physical presence than any frontcourt option for the Golden Eagles, who also might be down a man with Ed Morrow Jr. dealing with an ankle injury. The team numbers for Marquette are good but not great -- No. 92 in tempo and No. 42 in defensive efficiency. If you're fading Howard, Govan is almost surely a lineup cornerstone. I can even see a case for using both.

Grant Williams ($9,000 FD, $9,700 DK): The highest-priced player on both sites, Williams continues to be an all-around producer for the Volunteers. Ignore the single-digit dud against Missouri on Jan. 8 (in which he fouled out), and Williams has 41 or more DraftKings points in his last four games. While Arkansas has a formidable big man in Daniel Gafford to defend the rim (2.2 bpg), they play with a top-40 tempo and have a defense that sits at No. 46, per KenPom. In summary, Williams is undoubtedly a good play, but I wouldn't go as far as to call him an "elite" play with so many options available Tuesday.

Carsen Edwards ($8,500 FD, $9,300 DK): Fade Carsen Edwards at your own risk. I didn't touch him on the road against Wisconsin last week, and he burned be with his best performance of conference play -- 45.5 DK points. The entire country plays at a faster pace than the Badgers, and Rutgers is no exception, though I wouldn't call the No. 237 tempo "favorable." The Scarlet Knights have some long guards that should be capable of defending Edwards in theory, but I wouldn't count on it. I still prefer Markus Howard and one probably can't use both, but I don't expect the separation between the two to be much larger than 10 points.

Games to Target:

Wake Forest vs. NC State (-9), o/u 161.5, 8:00 p.m. EST

Here's a fun one. Zion Williamson torched Wake Forest for one of his best games of the year last week, but NC State doesn't have a Zion (nor does any team, for that matter). What they do have is a handful of serviceable guards and a rotation that could become complicated depending on the status of Markell Johnson ($6,200 FD, $6,100 DK), who is dealing with a hip injury. Torin Dorn ($7,300 FD, $7,300 DK) might be difficult to pay up for with the other studs on the slate, but C.J. Bryce ($6,400 FD, $6,100 DK) and Devon Daniels ($6,100 FD, $5,800 DK) are both in play for me, especially if Daniels gets back in the starting lineup for Johnson. There's Braxton Beverley ($5,600 FD, $4,600 DK) as well, who is a little dependent on his shooting touch for any given night, as most of his fantasy points come from scoring (outside shooting in particular -- he leads the team with 5.0 3-pointers attempted per game over his last 10). Beverley is much easier to stomach at the DraftKings price. Finally, forwards D.J. Funderburk ($6,000 FD, $4,800 DK) and Wyatt Walker ($4,800 FD. $4,400 DK). Both are a little inconsistent for my liking, but Walker could be a nice buy-low after he was tossed from Saturday's game. All reports indicate he'll face no further discipline.

For Wake Forest, most will look right to Brandon Childress ($7,600 FD, $7,900 DK), but forget Chaundee Brown ($6,100 FD, $6,000 DK) has a higher usage rate and lower price. He's also attempted 10 or more shots from the field in each of his last seven games. Another note worth pointing out is that Sharone Wright ($4,500 FD, $4,200 DK) was back in the starting lineup Saturday for the first time since Nov. 23, taking the spot of Torry Johnson ($3,800 FD, $3,800 DK). We'll see if that pattern continues. The frontcourt is pretty pricey, but remember NC State plays at a top-10 tempo, so anyone that stays out of foul trouble has a great chance to hit value. Jaylen Hoard ($7,100 FD, $7,200 DK) fell a few spots in my season-long rankings this week, but this is one of his best spots for a big game. Ikenna Smart ($3,700 FD, $3,300 DK) has rounded out the starting lineup of late, but Olivier Sarr ($4,700 FD, $3,900 DK) sees more minutes at center and is probably a better salary-relief option.

Ole Miss (-3.5) vs. LSU, o/u 155.5, 9:00 p.m. EST

While I like the Marquette/Georgetown game a little more for stack purposes, I'll pick a different one here because both stars from that contest were discussed above. This game has some excellent options, but you'll have to pay up for them. Nonetheless, if you're making 10 lineups, it's worth stacking this game in one or two. Let's start with the Tigers. I'm a sucker for Naz Reid ($6,500 FD, $6,400 DK), who is the definition of a hit-or-miss fantasy option and should be limited to GPPs. Against Alabama on Jan. 8, he fouled out after accruing just seven points and one rebound. He then bounced back with 27 points and seven rebounds Saturday in a pace-boosted matchup against Arkansas. For a safer option, look no further than Tremont Waters ($7,600 FD, $7,800 DK), who is back in the starting five and averaging 40.3 DK points over his last four. Ja'vonte Smart ($5,400 FD, $5,500 DK) has the third-highest usage on the team, but has came off the bench in his last two.

There's a steep drop-off for Mississippi when it comes to their stars, the production of said stars and the price you'll have to pay for them. Terence Davis ($7,900 FD, $8,300 DK) had a massive game with 27 & 12 last Wednesday against Auburn, but slowed down considerably Saturday against Ole Miss. The 6-4 senior scores like a guard and rebounds like a forward, and can feast on lesser opponents in a similar manner to that of Boston College's Ky Bowman. I'm not sure the 12-3 Tigers fall into that category, but they do play at an above-average tempo (No. 102) to go along with respectable efficiency on defense (No. 86). Only two Ole Miss regulars are above 20 percent usage, with the other being junior Breein Tyree ($7,700 FD, $7,400 DK). He's posted totals of 28.3 and 11.3 DK points in his last two games, but prior to that, averaged 35.7 over the previous four. There's an angle to play for this game, but I'm not looking much further past the key players.

Games to Avoid:

Virginia (-7.5) vs. Virginia Tech, o/u 125, 8:00 p.m. EST

Here's your weekly PSA to avoid opponents of the Cavaliers. We have an incredibly low over/under game where both teams play at tempos outside the top-300 and defenses inside the top-20, with Virginia's representing the No. 2 unit in the country. If you're looking for an angle, though, Kyle Guy ($7,300 FD, $6,800 DK) has been the hottest Virginia player, averaging 33.5 DK points over his last four, and the price won't break your bank. I'm confident Kerry Blackshear ($7,000 FD, $6,900 DK) could take any Virginia post player in a game of one-on-one, but am skeptical he'll get enough touches to hit value.

I don't see much of an angle in the FD-only game between Cincinnati and USF either, so I'll try to focus on another matchup that has implications for both sites instead.

Mississippi St. (-4.5) vs. Florida, o/u 137.5, 7:00 p.m. EST

While this game has a higher over/under than Purdue/Rutgers, there are actually some injury situations in that game to take advantage of (I'll discuss below), so I won't be avoiding it entirely. This game, however, is difficult to get a piece of. Mississippi State has a few attractive fantasy options, but all of them get a matchup downgrade Tuesday. Florida is basically the Virginia of the SEC -- they rank No. 331 in pace and No. 7 in defense. As a result, you'll probably need OT or more for guys like Lamar Peters ($6,900 FD, $7,100 DK) or Quinndary Weatherspoon ($7,800 FD, $8,100 DK) to hit value. That being said, one guy I don't mind for salary relief is 6-11 sophomore Abdulhakim Ado ($5,400 FD, $4,300 DK). He's back in the starting lineup and should have an advantage on the glass, as no Florida player stands above 6-9. For Florida, the seniors have largely disappointed, and the underclassmen are quite inconsistent. My days of recommended KeVaughn Allen ($6,100 FD, ($5,900 DK) and Jalen Hudson ($4,600 FD, $4,200 DK) are over -- I'm just not confident they suddenly get it together. Plus, that's a rotation that runs 8-to-10 deep, so they spread the ball around enough to limit any individual player's ceiling.

Injuries:

Evan Boudreaux, Purdue ($4,600 FD, $4,300 DK): With Boudreaux likely on the shelf with a groin injury, a few interesting pivot points open up. The logical choice would be Matt Haarms ($5,300 FD, $4,200 DK), but that wasn't at all the case for Purdue in their trip to Wisconsin last Friday. It was actually Trevion Williams ($5,500 FD, $3,900 DK) who got the start, and he fell just shy of a double-double over a season-best 25 minutes. Williams could feast even more Tuesday against a short-handed Rutgers frontcourt.

Eugene Omoruyi, Rutgers (knee - $7,000 FD, $7,800 DK): Like Boudreaux, we're pretty sure that Omoruyi will miss Tuesday's matchup against Purdue. Without Omoruyi out Saturday, Rutgers started Shaq Carter ($4,900 FD, $4,000 DK) who has seen the court for 57 minutes over his last two games. He had a decent effort with 18 FanDuel points against a tough Minnesota frontcourt, but the real minutes boosts seemed to go to wings Montex Mathis ($5,300 FD, $4,200 DK) and Ron Harper Jr. ($4,600 FD, $4,200 DK). Clearly, DraftKings is a bit slower when it comes to price adjustments, which leaves several opportunities for value here. My favorite is probably Mathis, but I wouldn't advise going too heavy on Rutgers in any scenario.

T.J. Gibbs, Notre Dame (illness - $7,000 FD, $6,900 DK): Gibbs was a surprise scratch Saturday due to illness, but I would guess he'll be back in action in a matchup that gets an exceptional pace boost. If he sits again for any reason, Prentiss Hubb ($5,400 FD, $5,200 DK) is the direct pivot, as he'll be called upon to take over as the primary ball handler for the Irish. He played 39 minutes Saturday and scored an impressive 37.5 FD points.

Markell Johnson, NC State (hip - $6,200 FD, $6,100 DK): There are four Wolfpack guards that are in play for any given DFS slate, especially when they face a weaker ACC opponent. Out of that group, Johnson has the highest usage rate, followed by Devon Daniels, Torin Dorn and C.J. Bryce (in that order). At this point, I would guess Johnson sits (he took a pretty hard fall Saturday). Who starts is anybody's guess, but there's a good chance they turn back to Daniels, who has already started five games this season.

Jaylen Fisher, TCU (knee - $6,000 FD, $5,400 DK): I'd be shocked if Fisher suited up tonight, and while RJ Nembhard ($4,600 FD, $3,900 DK) continues to be the main beneficiary in terms of extra minutes, I have a tough time in this matchup. While he gets up shots, the WVU press might be too much, even though senior Alex Robinson ($8,000 FD, $8,900 DK) likely has to do most of the ball handling.