DFS College Basketball: Wednesday Preview

Top Players:

Markus Howard ($9,800 DK, $8,500 FD): Howard and the Golden Eagles face Creighton in a road matchup that would be a pick'em on a neutral court, and also happens to be the highest over/under of the day at 157.5. Howard suffered a hip injury in last year's trip to Creighton, but had 25 points when they returned to Milwaukee. The Big East's leading scorer had a dud against St. John's, but recorded 26 or more points in five of his last 6. Plug him in and don't look back.

Dedric Lawson, Kansas ($8,800 - FanDuel only): While Howard will be up there, it's my belief Lawson will be the highest-owned player on FanDuel tonight. With Udoka Azubuike out for the year, Lawson will have to be the team's primary rebounder. Despite a slow day at the office against Iowa State, Lawson averaged 42.4 FanDuel points per game during an earlier four-game stretch with Azubuike out. In my eyes, Lawson is essentially tonight's Zion Williamson (at a cheaper price). TCU has a top-40 defense, but I think that will be cancelled out by more opportunities -- they play at the country's 90th-fastest tempo, per KenPom.

Ky Bowman ($8,700 - FanDuel only): FanDuel offers an uncharacteristically larger slate than that of DraftKings tonight, so if you haven't noticed already, much of this piece is geared in that direction. Bowman has the second-highest price on that slate, and will probably be counted on even more with both Wynston Tabbs & Stefon Mitchell looking iffy (see below). I've tended to jinx myself this year when recommending a top player fade straight up, but I won't have any piece of Bowman tonight against the nation's toughest defense (by far). Limit use to contrarian GPP lineups.

Games to Target:

Creighton (-3) vs. Marquette, o/u 157.5, 7:00 p.m. EST

I already discussed Marcus Howard above, but winning lineups tonight are going to have multiple pieces of this game, as it's projected to be a close matchup and has the highest over/under on the slate. Pairing him with Sam Hauser ($7,100 FD, $7,400 DK) is one way to do it, and represents a bit of a buy-low option. He had his worst scoring game of the year Sunday against Xavier, but averaged 28.1 FD points over the previous six. Ty-Shon Alexander ($7,300 FD, $7,300 DK) is the highest-priced Creighton player, but I'm more likely to lean towards Martin Krampelj ($6,100 FD, $5,500 DK) due to the price break, especially on DraftKings. He's starting to finally look fully healthy, and is outperforming Alexander over the last five games with an average of 27.2 FD points. He has the second-highest usage rate among starters, and the minutes are finally starting to ramp up.

Florida State (-10) vs. Miami FL, o/u 150, 9:00 p.m. EST

This game isn't on the DraftKings main slate, but it's the third highest over/under of the night on FanDuel. Miami options get a slight tempo boost, but keep in mind they also are playing the nation's No. 17 defense, per KenPom's adjusted efficiency metric. On the Florida State side, buy low on Terance Mann at $6,900, who is coming off a brutal outing against Virginia, just like pretty much everybody does. He has potential to reach the high-30s, and is otherwise a pretty good bet for mid-20s. Many of those same arguments can be made for Trent Forrest ($6,600) as well. It was pointed out to me on Twitter that Phil Cofer ($4,800) could be an excellent value play, and I agree. He's back from a six-week absence due to a foot injury, and the price has yet to catch up. He's now started back-to-back games and put up 25 or more minutes in each, one of which was against Virginia (he was the team's leading scorer with 9 points). It's a short sample size, but Cofer also has the best usage rate among the starting five.

Game to Avoid:

Kansas St. (-4) vs. West Virginia, o/u 128, 7:00 p.m. EST

Kansas State and West Virginia each run deep and often unpredictable rotations. The Wildcats have several banged-up players to complicate matters, while Bob Huggins can get upset and bench players with little warning (see Esa Ahmad). The lowest over/under of the day by a mile makes this the obvious choice for a fade, but I'm here to reiterate that just in case you're tempted.

Syracuse (-3) vs. Clemson, o/u 131, 8:00 p.m. EST

It's not just the over/under here -- these two teams play at paces outside the top-225 and have top-40 defenses, according to KenPom. Marcquise Reed ($8,300 FD, $9,400 DK) has been one of the conferences elite scorers, and while I'm convinced he's fully healthy now, he's still not my favorite option in that tier. The same goes for O'Shae Brissett ($8,100 FD, $8,300 DK). Both frontcourts are big and physical, and it's possible foul trouble could become an issue.

Injuries:

Jaylen Fisher, TCU (knee): Fisher had been working on a streak of seven-straight starts with 22 or more minutes before sitting out Saturday with knee swelling. What's concerning is that a right knee issue forced him to sit out the first three games of the season as well, so my guess would be the team plays it safe here. If he sits, the pivot is pretty cut and dry to freshman R.J. Nembhard ($4,300 FD), who scored 10 points across 33 minutes Saturday. Kansas isn't a friendly matchup to target high-priced players, but look for Alex Robinson ($8,200 FD) -- the conference's leading assist man -- to see even more touches than normal.

Paris Austin, Calfornia (ankle): Austin has been one of the very few bright spots for this year's Cal team, but he's a game-time decision Wednesday, and a 9:00 p.m. EST tip off isn't doing anyone any favorites. Lineup unpredictability makes finding a clear pivot tough, as four of Cal's five starters on Jan. 5 were not in the starting lineup just two days earlier against USC. To further complicate matters, no single player attempted double-digit shots without Austin against UCLA. Darius McNeil ($6,200 FD) seems like the most likely candidate to hit that mark, but there's no real kind of a price break there.

Kamau Stokes, Kansas State (foot): Stokes missed a Jan. 2 matchup against Texas before logging 21 minutes off the bench Saturday against Texas Tech. Mike McGuirl started, but played just six minutes. Stokes is expected to see closer to a full workload in a Wednesday matchup with a slight pace boost, but how many guards can you trust against the WVU press?

Wynston Tabbs, Boston College (leg): Tabbs has been a pleasant surprise for the Eagles this season as a solid complement to top scorer Ky Bowman. He sat out Saturday with a leg injury, however, and while x-rays came back clean, his status for Wednesday is likely up in the air. When Tabbs is out, the team relies much more on freshman Chris Herren ($3,600 FD), who has started the last five but now plays more minutes. Jared (not Jairus) Hamilton ($3,000 FD) has also been playing heavy minutes since returning, and was on the court for a season-high 29 Saturday. It's generally inadvisable to play anyone against Virginia, but I couldn't blame anyone for using a min-priced player that might see 25-plus minutes.

Steffon Mitchell, Boston College (undisclosed): A late scratch always leaves a sour taste in the mouths of fantasy owners, and that's happened to Mitchell twice in the last four games. He started Saturday, but logged just 16 minutes. Unlike the aforementioned Tabbs, Mitchell does most work in the frontcourt. If he sits or is limited, Nik Popovic ($7,200 FD) gets a boost, but the more savvy play of late has been Jairus (not Jared) Hamilton ($4,200 FD). I won't use Pop at that price against Virginia, but Jairus has played 31 minutes in three of his last four. There's worse salary relief options out there.

Brandon Knapper, West Virginia (suspension): Knapper is a bench player that's scored in double figures twice this year. He's making the trip to KSU and is expected to play, so there's not much to exploit here.