This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
We've reached our final full-roster contests of the season with the Final Four tipping Saturday evening. DraftKings' biggest contest comes with a $80,000 total prize pool and $20,000 available to first place, while FanDuel has a $25,000 contest with $5,000 available to first place.
One aspect of DFS that perhaps we should have harped on far earlier in the season is contest selection. FanDuel's contest only has 3,306 entries, so you like those odds of potentially winning, but when the site also allows for 120 entries per person, lineup trains will rule the day. DraftKings isn't any better, with 4,705 entries but up to 141 per person. I'd be absolutely shocked if either tournament has a solo winner. The single-entry tournaments don't come with nearly the prizes, but for me, they're far better options with just two games and 20 total starters to choose from.
For the games, Alabama - Connecticut has a point total 14.5 points higher than North Carolina State - Purdue, which is going to draw eyes. Individually, however, Purdue has the second-highest implied point total. We nearly heave double-digit spreads in both games, so the favorites will be heavy chalk. Picking one underdog and doing so correctly, both from a gambling and DFS perspective, is the path to success.
Top Targets
Zach Edey, F, Purdue ($11,300 DK, $11,200 FD)
Yeah, we're going here. Edey was omitted from the intro, as it should always be a personal preference to pay this much for one asset, and you don't need me to tell you he's a great play. For Saturday, it seems as if it's just a must, despite being priced $3,000 over the next forward, as there are only eight frontcourt options priced where we don't slot them in bargain territory. I'm personally out on North Carolina State's two top forwards, as Purdue seems capable of defending them without double-teaming, eliminating their assist potential and scoring upside. I do think the Wolfpack can defend Edey better than most have, so it's not a clear 60 fantasy point smash, and there are incredibly attractive high-end guards throughout the slate. There just aren't any forwards, so we take the ace regardless of price, and see what else we can do.
Cam Spencer, G, Connecticut ($7,200 DK, $7,000 FD)
Given the complete lack of forward depth, using Edey and Donovan Clingan is a great build, but it's costly. We're sacrificing position with Spencer, but not upside, and it's giving us an extra $1,100 to spread throughout the rest of our build. Spencer does it all, averaging 13.8 points, 6.5 rebounds. 3.8 assists and 2.0 steals in his four tournament games. He's UConn's best 3-point shooter (this game has shootout potential), and Spencer simply feels underpriced. There are multiple paths to a high floor and high ceiling for Spencer in a paced-up spot.
Middle Tier
Grant Nelson, F, Alabama ($6,200 DK, $5,200 FD)
Nelson seems to present a matchup problem for Connecticut. I'm assuming Nick Pringle and Donovan Clingan are going to match up on the post, so who's guarding Nelson? The answer is Alex Karaban, who will be giving up three inches and 10 pounds. Nelson's recent blow-up games haven't come in similar matchups; he exploited UNC when matched up with less mobile Armando Bacot, and Florida was a similar story. Alabama has also shown it will adjust as the game dictates, often benching Nelson and going small. It's a risk, but one with high upside potential, particularly at FanDuel. I don't see UConn doubling him, so I look for rebounds and shots over Karaban, with a few 3-pointers and blocks to round out a fantasy night.
Michael O'Connell, G, North Carolina State ($5,500 DK, $4,400 FD)
First and foremost, can we not clearly see how cheap secondary pieces are at FanDuel? You can seemingly go stars and scrubs there and not actually have scrubs! But at DraftKings, it's not as easy of a decision. O'Connell doesn't score, but he's a threat to put up six points, rebounds and/or assists while playing a full stable of minutes. Ben Middlebrooks makes sense as a pay-down forward, but I'd rather take the minutes here and just punt the third forward spot. O'Connell hasn't been under 15.25 DKP in four tournament games while showing a 32.75 DKP ceiling.
My fade in this tier is DJ Horne ($6,800 DK, $6,200 FD). He's more appealing at FanDuel, and frankly, he needs to go off offensively for the 'Pack to compete, but he doesn't do enough peripherally to provide a fair fantasy return. He's a scorer only.
Bargain Options
Lance Jones, G, Purdue ($4,900 DK, $4,200 FD)
Jones is arguably my favorite play on the entire slate. He doesn't have much upside overall, but he's a double-digit scorer on the season that's averaging 9.1 points across his last eight games, so perhaps there is room for marginal growth. What we know is he'll play and play lots -- at least 30 minutes. Despite the lower scoring, he's managed 17.65 DKP over this eight-game stretch, a very fair 3.6x return. Jones is also $600 cheaper at DraftKings than he was in the Elite 8. He's just a rock-solid, stable option.
Hassan Diarra, G, Connecticut ($4,400 DK, $3,900 FD)
Diarra has earned double-digit fantasy points in 11 consecutive games and has played 20+ minutes in three straight and in five of six. I'm a touch worried his hot shooting (9-of-16 in his last two) won't carry over into the cavernous NFL stadium we always hear about come the Final Four, but he's emerged as a clearly reliable sixth-man for the Huskies, and particularly at FanDuel, he opens up a ton of free spending elsewhere. I think UConn may play smaller here against the Tide, which would further open up things for Diarra, minutes-wise. But if the Huskies want/need to go big, Samson Johnson ($3,800 DK, $3,400 FD) is a terrific pivot that's far less chalky.
Of all the players I'm likely fading Saturday, North Carolina State's Jayden Taylor ($3,900 DK, $3,700 FD) leads the way. He's shown capable when the Wolfpack were presented with injuries in February, but he's just not been involved during the tournament, averaging 4.3 points, 1.8 rebounds and 1.3 assists in 18.0 minutes of action. I'm also not taking the bait on Alabama's Jarin Stevenson ($4,000 DK, $3,800 FD) either.
