NCAA Tournament Preview: East Region

EAST REGION PREVIEW

The East Region could be a bracket buster for many. The general feel seems to be doubting the top-seed Villanova Wildcats, discrediting the second-seeded Virginia Cavaliers due to their style and late-season results and a less than star studded rest of the pack that includes the No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners and No. 4 Louisville Cardinals, both of which had poor showings in their conference tournaments. As such, mid-major Northern Iowa has emerged as a popular pick for a deep run. Defense reigns supreme in the East, which should lead to a lot of close games, and unpredictable results.

THE FAVORITES

No. 1 Villanova - Although there might not be a household name on the Wildcats' roster, the results speak for themselves, and Villanova enters the tournament 32-2 and riding a 15-game winning streak. The Cats are a deep and experienced team that is poised to avenge the second-round loss they experienced last year. Led by Darrun Hilliard's 14.0 points, Villanova boasts six players who average at least 9.2 points. They often use four guards to spread out opponents, with Josh Hart, conference co-player of the year Ryan Arcidiacono and Dylan Ennis all capable three-point shooters. Villanova made an astonishing 306 three-pointers this season, an average of nine a game. They defend the perimeter well, and aren't a slouch on the interior with 6-foot-7 JayVaughn Pinkson and 6-11 Daniel Ochefu. The only knock on Villanova is its lack of quality wins outside the Big East, with their best wins coming against Syracuse, VCU and Michigan.

No. 2 Virginia - The question surrounding the Cavaliers heading into the tournament is how they will respond to their sudden late-season losses. Almost assured of a No. 1 seed a week ago, Virginia lost a two-point game to Louisville to end the regular season and then were eliminated by North Carolina in the ACC tournament quarterfinals. The Cavs aren't the most enjoyable team to watch, as their pack line defense imposes its will on any opponent, leading the country by allowing only 50.8 points per game. It's that style that allows them to be in any contest, as their three losses have come by a total of 12 points. As evident by his performance against North Carolina last Friday, Malcom Brogdon (25 points, six rebounds,) is a capable go-to scorer down the stretch. Point guard London Perrantes is a stabilizing force who averages 4.8 assists and had at least nine in two of his last four games. The key for Virginia is the health of guard Justin Anderson. The junior missed eight games due to a broken bone in his hand, and then had an appendectomy. He returned for the ACC tournament, but did not look like himself, failing to score in 26 total minutes across two games. A healthy Anderson brings 12.3 points, 4.1 rebounds and 46.9 percent 3-point shooting to the lineup, something the Cavaliers will need to make the tournament's second weekend.

No. 3 Oklahoma - The Sooners are another capable defensive team heading East. They allow opponents to hit only 38.5 percent of their field goals, and only 30.9 percent of their their-pointers. It results in allowing just 62.8 points per game. The difference for the Sooners is they can also score, averaging 71.9 points. Guard Buddy Hield leads four scorers who average at least 10.0 points, posting 17.5 points a game. Isaiah Cousins hits 45.4 percent of his long-range shots, and forwards Tyshawn Thomas and Ryan Spangler give the Sooners some low-post presence. The Sooners have been a bit inconsistent, beating Kansas and Iowa State, but losing twice to Kansas State, while also falling to Washington and Creighton. Lack of depth and overall size could be their Achilles' heal.

No. 4 Louisville - The Cardinals arguably have the most talented roster in the region. Guard Terry Rozier is one of the nation's top scorers, averaging 17.1 points while adding 5.3 boards, 2.8 assists and 2.0 steals. He pairs terrifically with 240-pound forward Montrezl Harrell, who averages 15.7 points and 9.5 rebounds. Centers Chinanu Onuaku and Mangok Mathiang give the Cardinals two 6-foot-10, long armed, active bodies to clean up rebounds and protect the rim should opponents break through the Cards' pressing defense. The wild cards for Louisville are wing Wayne Blackshear and guard Quentin Snider. Blackshear closed the year by scoring in double-figures in six of his last eight games, but did so just once in his previous seven outings. His stroke would give the Cardinals a dangerous third scoring threat. Snider is the real lynchpin here, taking over for Chris Jones in the starting lineup after Jones was booted from the team in late February. He's had as many turnovers as made field goals (14) over the last five games, and the Cardinals will need more to push themselves into the second weekend.

CINDERELLA WATCH

No. 9 LSU - The Tigers front line of 6-10 Jarrell Martin and 6-8 Jordan Mickey are more than enough to give the Wildcats a scare in the round of 32 should they beat North Carolina State in the opener. Martin leads the team with 16.9 points while adding 9.2 rebounds, while Mickey averages 15.5 points and a team-high 9.8 boards. They've received quality backcourt play from Keith Hornsby, who averages 13.6 points and 4.2 rebounds, and Tim Quarterman, who puts up 11.3 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.9 assists. The Wolfpack could be without point guard Cat Barber for the Thursday's contest, which is enough to pencil the Bayou Bengals into a Saturday tilt with No. 1 Villanova. LSU gave the Kentucky Wildcats their biggest scare of the year and are capable of doing so to Villanova, as well.

No. 7 Michigan State - If history is important when filling out your brackets, then you've already penciled the Spartans into the tournament's second weekend. Michigan State has advanced to the Sweet 16 six times in the last seven years, losing in the first round only twice since 2006. After a roller coaster regular season, the Spartans ran through the Big Ten Tournament before falling to Wisconsin in overtime in the championship game and appear to be hitting their stride per the norm under coach Tom Izzo. Guard Travis Trice leads the team in scoring with 15.1 points, while Denzel Valentine chips in 14.4 points and 6.1 rebounds, and forward Branden Dawson provides a bigger body for 11.8 points and a team-high 9.2 rebounds. The Spartans won't be intimidated by a ground-it-out style in a second-round game against Virginia, a team they knocked off in the Sweet 16 a year ago. It's a favorable draw for the Spartans.

BIGGEST BUST

No. 4 Louisville - The gut feel here is that the Cardinals simply aren't interested at this point and are overseeded. Following the removal of Chris Jones from the team after a Feb. 21 against Miami, Louisville went 3-2, with losses to Notre Dame and North Carolina, while narrowly beating Georgia Tech and Virginia on senior day. Talent is not a question, as Rozier and Harrell will both play in the NBA. It comes down to a question of desire for the Cardinals. Opening-opponent UC Irvine led Arizona at halftime early in the season and fell to Oregon in overtime. The Anteaters won't be intimidated, and should the Cardinals advance, they'll likely face another team that won't be intimidated in Northern Iowa. The Ville has its work cut out for it.

FIRST-ROUND UPSET

No. 11 Dayton vs. No. 6 Providence - The Flyers must first beat Boise State in a First Four contest, but that game will be held on the Flyers' home floor. A win will catapult the Flyers into another potential favorable crowd in Columbus, Ohio, against a Friars team that should have its way with the Flyers on the interior. There is just something about the continuity the six Flyers who play the bulk of the team's minutes have. This selection has little to do with Dayton's magical run to the Elite Eight a season ago, but some to do with the fact that the Atlantic 10 has placed a team in the Sweet 16 seven straight years. Ohio State transfer Jordan Siebert is a proven go-to scorer, averaging 16.6 points, while forwards Kendall Pollard and DyShawn Pierre both average more than 12.5 points and provide the team with an interior presence. Depth is absolutely a concern for the Flyers, but they'll have enough gas in the tank to win at least one game in the tournament.

PLAYER TO WATCH

Justin Anderson, Guard, Virginia - In a region that appears dominated by defense-first teams, a player who has not made a field goal since Feb. 7 could be the X-factor. Anderson's averages are worth repeating: 12.3 points, the second highest total on the team, 4.1 rebounds and a team-high 46.9 three-point percentage. It's his presence that elevates the Cavaliers from a really good team to a potentially great team that can beat anyone in front of them. He went 0-for-6 in his return to the lineup in Greensboro during the ACC tournament. A positive, albeit likely light, showing against Belmont would do wonders for Anderson's confidence. Should he continue to struggle, the Cavaliers may not have enough offense to beat Michigan State on Sunday, let alone advance further in the tournament.

SWEET 16 PICKS

No. 1 Villanova - The Wildcats are too hot not to emerge from the tournament's first weekend. Playing in Pittsburgh should help, and while the size of LSU in a potential second-round contest is scary, Villanova will spread the floor and shoot its way into next weekend.

No. 2 Virginia- Virginia reaches down deep and recaptures the groove it had when winning 27 of its first 28 games. Justin Anderson may need another week to fully regain his form, but the team concept and defense will be just enough to push them past Sparty in the round of 32.

No. 3 Oklahoma - This is more based on the upset pick of Dayton over Providence, as the Flyers would be playing their third game in six days and have a six-man rotation. The Sooners move on thanks to tired legs, but could be in trouble if facing a Providence team that can bully them on the inside.

No. 5 Northern Iowa - The Panthers are a popular pick to advance, and possibly challenge Villanova in the Sweet 16. Knocking off Wyoming won't be easy, nor will Louisville should the Cardinals advance, but Northern Iowa's defense, which allows only 39.1 percent of shots to fall, will keep it close, and the Panthers are simply the best team of the four in their pod.

FINAL FOUR PICK

No. 2 Virginia - Defense, more defense and a return to health for a star will be enough for the Cavaliers to advance to their first Final Four since 1984. A potential matchup with Michigan State is scary, as the Spartans size and similar grit could cause problems, but a likely partisan crowd in Charlotte will help push the Cavaliers into the tournament's second weekend. Their style of play is difficult to scheme against, and even more difficult to do so on a quick turnaround. Justin Anderson returns to form for a Sweet 16 matchup with Oklahoma, which is no match for the Cavaliers defense. An all chalk Elite Eight contest with Villanova will be challenging, but the Cavaliers are the more battle-tested team. The ACC sent five teams to the tournament, four of which earned top four seeds. Although the Cavaliers were just 2-3 in matchups against those teams, the fact that they are always in games late will lead to an opportunity to advance. Plus, they could be underseeded as a two, and because they aren't sexy to watch, they won't be sexy to pick. There's value in going against the grain.