NCAA Tournament Preview: East Region

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A top-heavy East Region is set, with both the ACC and B1G Tournament winners leading six teams combined from their respective conferences in a field of 16. From an entertainment standpoint, that's a bit of a letdown as the next wave of teams has very little margin for error. There will be value in picking against the upper echelon squads, but there doesn't appear to be immediate appeal within the lower seeded squads.

THE FAVORITES

No. 1 Duke – The tournament's overall No. 1 seed, the Blue Devils avenged two of their three conference losses during their run to the conference tournament championship. Even the most casual bracket submitter knows of Zion Williamson (22.1 ppg, 8.9 rpg) and most know of R.J. Barrett (22.9 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 4.1 apg) -- two top-3 picks in the NBA Draft. Simply put, no team has more top-end talent than Duke.

No. 2 Michigan State – MSU looks like a matchup nightmare, as their eighth-ranked defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and sixth-ranked opponent effective field goal percentage is now suddenly paired with a fourth-ranked offensive efficiency. While not a fully healthy squad, G Cassius Winston (19.0  ppg, 7.5 apg) leads a veteran rotation that dropped only two games during the non-conference season.

No. 3 LSU – The Tigers could be under seeded based on talent alone. G Tremont Waters (15.1 ppg, 5.9 apg) leads a squad that also boasts F/C Naz Reid's 13.7 ppg, 7.2 rpg, amongst four total double-digit scorers, with three additional options playing 20-plus minutes and averaging better than seven points. 

No. 4 Virginia Tech – The Hokies are in uncharted waters with regards to tournament seeding and expectations. G Nickeil Alexander-Walker (16.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 4.0 apg, 1.9 spg) is a future lottery pick, while F/C Kerry Blackshear Jr. (14.7 ppg, 7.4 rpg) has played like a man on a mission throughout February. So has G Ahmed Hill (13.1 ppg), which give the Hokies terrific options, all without considering G Justin Robinson (13.7 ppg, 5.2 apg), who is set to return from a foot injury that has sidelined him since January 30. 

CINDERELLA WATCH

No. 9 UCF – There doesn't appear to be much immediate value with first-round upsets in the East. As such, going against the name value could prove prudent. This first-round matchup with VCU presents as a "first to 60" type game. Neither side possesses the necessary offensive firepower to trust, but guards B.J. Taylor (16.0 ppg) and Aubrey Dawkins (15.2 ppg) give the Knights backcourt firepower that will be tough to counter, especially if Marcus Evans (knee) is limited for VCU. And don't forget about 7-foot-6 center Tacko Fall (10.9 ppg, 2.5 bpg). Only problem is, the Knights will have to get past top-seeded Duke just to get to the Sweet 16.

No. 11 Belmont – This is all about a man crush on the Bruins' Dylan Windler, who averages 21.4 ppg and 10.7 rpg. I'm not certain Belmont will beat Temple on Tuesday, but Windler is the one player on a second-tier squad that is capable of carrying his team into the tournament's second weekend. With no preferred double-digit seed looking at a run past Sunday, taking a shot on the one player who can push his team that far is a reasonable risk.

BIGGEST BUST

No. 3 LSU – Two weeks ago, LSU was on my short list of Final Four contenders. But with Will Wade's skeletons coming out of his closet, this team is absolutely boom or bust. The talent remains, and there's likely a lot of value in picking them deep, as most will shy away. But no other team in the field brings as much off court drama as the Tigers, and if the way they lost in the opening round of the SEC Tournament is any indication, they're not equipped to handle the plethora of distractions they're facing.

FIRST-ROUND UPSET

No. 10 Minnesota over No. 7 Louisville – This isn't a sexy upset pick, but this region looks like chalk city early. I'd love to pick Liberty, but they seem likely to be pounded on the offensive glass and will come up short. I'd enjoy taking Belmont over Maryland, but as of submission time, there's no guarantee that game happens. So give me a slumping Gophers side over a more-slumping Cardinals, who lost five of their last seven, if for no other reason than I trust Minny's Jordan Murphy to will his team to victory more so than the 'Ville's Jordan Nwora.

PLAYER TO WATCH

Tre Jones, G, Duke – Even the most casual fan knows the ball runs through Williamson and Barrett, but Duke has to have production elsewhere or the former two will need to each average 30+ ppg if they hope to advance. Jones has played all but one minute in the Blue Devils last four games, and has taken at least nine shots in all of those. The shots aren't falling (40.0 percent, 20.0 percent from 3-point range in ACC Tournament), but he put up 13.3 points and 6.3 assists. Duke simply has to have a third or fourth option, and Jones appears to have more confidence and opportunity presently than forward Cam Reddish. Major honorable mention to Virginia Tech's Justin Robinson and Michigan State's Nick Ward, both players whose health could alter this region.

SWEET 16 PICKS

No. 1 Duke – VCU is going to travel well to Columbia, as will UVA, which could make for a hostile environment for the Blue Devils. And for as much history as Duke has losing early-round games, this isn't the spot. There's no risk against a TBD 16 seed, and the Rams don't have the offense to keep up, if they survive a slugfest with UCF.

No 2 Michigan State – A streaky team, Sparty has won 10 of their last 11, including a three-game run through the B1G Tournament. Louisville beat MSU earlier in the year, but won't sneak up on them here if, and that's a big if, they get by Minnesota. 

No. 4 Virginia Tech – How the Hokies handle Robinson's return to the lineup is an underlying story in the east. It's certainly possible he disrupts chemistry and forces an early exit, but VaTech is well coached, and should be able to ride Alexander-Walker and Blackshear into the second weekend before unleashing a full, dangerous rotation with Robinson fully integrated in the tournament's second weekend.

No. 6 Maryland – This is a choice to not go straight chalk. I'd love a Temple or Belmont choice here, but one has to win before we can take them, and Belmont didn't fare well in non-conference matchups. The Terps have a solid 1-2 combo of Anthony Cowan and Bruno Fernando, and are certainly capable of winning two games.

FINAL FOUR PICK

No. 2 Michigan State – Every casual fan will take Duke here, but the Spartans are of the mold to pull the upset. There's at least a chance they face conference foes Minnesota and Maryland on their way to this matchup, and the Spartans can certainly slow Duke down, keep Williamson off the offensive glass, and force the Blue Devils to make outside shots, something they aren't built to do.