NCAA Tournament Preview: West Region

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The West region is highlighted by top-seeded Gonzaga once again in 2021, but the Bulldogs have slightly less pressure on them heading into the NCAA Tournament this year since they aren't vying for an undefeated season. The No. 2 seed in the region has a significant spotlight on them since coach Mike Krzyzewski is preparing for his final tournament run during his storied career as Duke's head coach. No. 3 Texas Tech has shown plenty of defensive prowess mixed with offensive proficiency this season, while No. 4 Arkansas has pulled off several upset wins over some of the top teams in the country.

Among some of the top sleepers in the conference are No. 10 Davidson, whose offensive efficiency ranks 11th in the nation, per KenPom. No. 13 Vermont has won 25 of 26 games dating back to Dec. 10, but the Catamounts face a tough draw against the Razorbacks, who have stepped up in high-profile matchups this year.

Let's dive deeper into some of the teams, players and matchups that could define the West Region in 2022.

THE FAVORITES

No. 1 Gonzaga – The Bulldogs entered the season as the top-ranked team in the AP poll after losing in the national title game last year, but a pair of losses to Duke and Alabama in late-November and early-December allowed them to fly under the radar for several weeks. However, they lost just one game the rest of the way and enter the 2022 NCAA Tournament as a No. 1 seed for the fourth time in the last five years. Freshman Chet Holmgren has stepped up nicely in his first collegiate season, while Andrew Nembhard and Drew Timme have served as team leaders once again during the 2021-22 campaign.

No. 2 Duke – One team in the region that will help take the spotlight off Gonzaga is Duke, featuring coach Mike Krzyzewski in his final tournament run of his career. While Coach K is sure to draw plenty of headlines ahead of the tournament, it's the Blue Devils' play on the court that has earned them the No. 2 seed in the region. They've relied heavily on freshman production during the 2021-22 campaign, highlighted by Paolo Banchero, who leads the team in scoring and rebounds and is in the mix to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. While Duke had some late-season struggles, including a 13-point loss to North Carolina at home and a 15-point loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament, the Blue Devils certainly have the talent to make a final run at a title for Coach K.

No. 3 Texas Tech – The Red Raiders are one of the more intriguing teams in the region, as they're the top-ranked team in the nation in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. They have plenty of experience against Quad 1 opponents this year, but their 8-9 record in those matchups leaves something to be desired. Texas Tech recently got Kevin McCullar back from an ankle injury but lost two of its final three regular-season games before falling at the hands of Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament, so the team will have to turn things around quickly if it hopes to make a run in the NCAA Tournament.

No. 4 Arkansas – The Razorbacks' season appeared to be spiraling in December and early-January, as they lost five of six games, including a Quad 2 and Quad 3 loss. However, they turned things around in mid-January and won 14 of 15 games from Jan. 12 to March 2. Unfortunately, they hit a late-season snag and enter the NCAA Tournament having lost two of their last three games. Additionally, JD Notae, the team's leading scorer, has shot just 27.8 percent from the floor across the last four games. Arkansas made it to the Elite Eight in 2021 and have put together another well-rounded team this year, but the Razorbacks will need to bounce back from their late-season struggles in order to have a chance at a run in 2022.

CINDERELLA WATCH

No. 10 Davidson – Davidson doesn't feature many high-profile wins on its resume, as the team went just 2-2 in Quad 1 matchups and 3-2 against Quad 2 opponents. However, the Wildcats took care of business elsewhere, including an 11-0 record against Quad 4 opponents. They're tasked with facing coach Tom Izzo's Spartans in the first round, fresh off a semifinal run in the Big Ten Tournament. However, Davidson ranks eighth in the nation in three-point shooting and features Michigan State transfer Foster Loyer at point guard. If the Wildcats can ride their efficient offense early in the tournament, it's possible that the program could contend for a spot in the Sweet 16 and beyond.

No. 13 Vermont – Like Davidson, Vermont's schedule didn't allow for the team to put together a season with wins against top-tier opponents. The Catamounts began the season with a 5-4 record but have lost just one game since Dec. 10. They're coming off a monster run in the America East Tournament in which they won each of their three games by at least 32 points. They face a much tougher test against Arkansas' well-rounded program, but Vermont has a path toward victory if Ben Shungu and Ryan Davis can remain efficient from beyond the arc while the all-senior lineup controls the boards.

BIGGEST BUST

No. 2 Duke – The Blue Devils certainly have a high-octane offense, so this pick has the chance to burn me. However, their issue down the stretch has been on the defensive side of the ball, where they've given up at least 80 points in each of the last four games. A team with three freshman starters -- Paolo Banchero, Trevor Keels and A.J. Griffin -- would face plenty of pressure in the NCAA Tournament during a normal year, but this group will also be faced with the added pressure of Coach K's final run. The young squad has had some issues with consistency during the regular season, and there's also the question of whether the competition level in the lackluster ACC properly prepared the team for the NCAA Tournament. Duke is sure to be a popular pick to make a run in 2022, but tough potential matchups against Davidson or Michigan State in the second round and against Texas Tech in the Sweet 16 could lead to an earlier departure than some may expect.

FIRST-ROUND UPSET

No. 13 Vermont vs. No. 4 Arkansas – While Arkansas put together a nice run during the regular season following a rough start to SEC play, I predict that the team that played spoiler against so many top-tier opponents will have its NCAA Tournament spoiled by the America East program that's won 23 of 24 games dating back to Dec. 10. The Catamounts match up well against Arkansas, as Vermont's defense thrives against two-point attempts, while the Razorbacks have shot just 30.7 percent from beyond the arc this year. Vermont's all-senior lineup featuring Ben Shungu, Ryan Davis and Isaiah Powell doesn't have much NCAA Tournament experience, but the group has shot efficiently from the floor this year while controlling the defensive boards. While the Catamounts have just two NCAA Tournament wins in program history, they have the chance to put an end to the Razorbacks' season in 2022.

PLAYER TO WATCH

Bryson Williams, F, Texas Tech – On a team that thrives defensively, Williams has been a mainstay on the offensive side of the ball, leading the Red Raiders with 13.7 points per game while scoring in double figures in all but three of his appearances since the start of the calendar year. The transfer from UTEP finds most of his success from two-point range and has shot 53.4 percent from the floor during his first year at Texas Tech. However, Williams saw a slight decrease in shot volume to begin the Big 12 Tournament and was held under 10 points in each of the first two games of postseason play. He bounced back with 17 points in the Red Raiders' loss to Kansas and will have to remain effective early in the NCAA Tournament to help the defensive-minded program advance.

SWEET 16 PICKS

No. 1 Gonzaga – As the top seed in the NCAA Tournament, Gonzaga doesn't have a particularly hard schedule in the first two rounds. The Bulldogs shouldn't have much trouble against Georgia State, a program making its third NCAA Tournament appearance since 2018, while they'd get to match up against Boise State or Memphis in the second round after both teams showed some inconsistency during the regular season. Nothing is guaranteed in March, but the Bulldogs should cruise to the Sweet 16 as they prepare for another potential deep tournament run.

No. 5 Connecticut – I have No. 4 Arkansas on upset alert in the first round, but it's very possible the Razorbacks will be in this spot if they manage to make it past the Catamounts. However, I predict that Connecticut will survive the dreaded 5/12 matchup against New Mexico State before reaching the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2014. The Huskies won six of their final seven regular-season games this year and have plenty of experience in the backcourt with RJ Cole and Tyrese Martin.

No. 3 Texas Tech – Texas Tech lost two of three games to close out the regular season, but I expect that the Red Raiders' staunch defense will reign supreme in the first few rounds of the NCAA Tournament. The team forces plenty of turnovers and limits effective field-goal attempts, which helps to make up for its lack of offensive production from long range.

No. 2 Duke – I predicted Duke as my biggest bust of the region and think that the matchup against Michigan State or Davidson in the second round has the potential for an upset, but neither of those teams have been particularly effective against Quad 1 opponents this year. I expect the Blue Devils to have an earlier exit than most may predict, but I still think that Coach K will get to make one last appearance in the Sweet 16.

FINAL FOUR PICK

No. 1 Gonzaga – The Bulldogs won't have the same level of favorability in brackets this year as they did following their undefeated 2020-21 regular season, but the team still has the tools to make a deep tournament run for a second straight year. Junior Drew Timme and senior Andrew Nembhard have experience on the big stage, while star freshman Chet Holmgren will have a chance to prove himself during his first -- and potentially only -- NCAA Tournament. Per KenPom, Gonzaga ranks among the top 10 teams in the nation in offensive efficiency (first) and defensive efficiency (seventh). Combined with the sixth-best pace in the nation, coach Mark Few's program has the talent to handle anything that comes its way in the West Region.