Sweet 16 Preview: West Region

WEST REGION SWEET 16

Site: Los Angeles
Tip-off: Thursday

More than the other regionals, the West went chalk. Only sixth-seeded Xavier is an interloper among the top four seeds. Someone knew that Baylor would fall and go boom, but even he wasn't completely confident that Georgia State would knock the Bears out. The Musketeers make for a better narrative in any case because coach Sean Miller left Xavier after 2009 for Arizona. Miller's former team made the Elite Eight twice under his tutelage. Arizona has also made the Elite Eight twice (and Sweet 16 twice) with Miller at the helm. In the other game, North Carolina and Wisconsin meet in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2005 when the Tar Heels knocked the Badgers out in the Elite Eight on the way to the national championship that year.

No. 4 North Carolina vs. No. 1 Wisconsin

Key Matchup: Bigs vs. bigs. Both teams have talented forwards. The Badger frontcourt led them to the Final Four last year, and Frank Kaminsky, Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes combined for 47 of Wisconsin's 72 points in the win over Oregon on Sunday. Oregon had success in countering Kaminsky by forcing him to go left, and you can bet that coach Roy Williams and his staff took notes. UNC may be without center Kennedy Meeks who sprained his knee late in the win over Arkansas, but the Tar Heels will certainly have Brice Johnson, J.P. Tokoto and Justin Jackson. Tokoto and Dekker matched up as high school recruits in Wisconsin.

Wisconsin will Win IF: it hits three-pointers. In Wisconsin's two Big Ten losses (against Rutgers, perhaps the biggest upset of the season, and Maryland), the team hit less than 30 percent of its long-range shots. One of the reasons Oregon kept the game close Sunday was that Wisconsin only hit 30.4 percent of its three-pointers. If the Badgers hit their season norm of 35.8 percent from beyond the arc, they should win.

North Carolina will Win IF: it pushes the pace. Wisconsin can play a fast game, but the team prefers to control the pace with the patented swing offense and staunch defense. The Tar Heels will try to run and get easy baskets in transition before the Wisconsin defense can get set. It also wouldn't hurt if one or more of the Badgers' forwards gets in foul trouble. There isn't much depth on the Badgers' roster behind Kaminsky, Dekker and Hayes, who each average more than 30 minutes.

Player to Watch: Marcus Paige, North Carolina. For whatever reason, Paige has not scored as explosively this year as he did as a sophomore. Last season, he routinely took over games with seemingly unstoppable forays to the basket. Maybe he has been slowed by minor injuries or has been concentrating on setting up his teammates; Paige has watched his scoring average drop from 17.5 to 14.1 points. But he remains able to put the Tar Heels on his back and lead them to a victory.

Prediction: Even if Meeks can play, the Tar Heels are going to have their hands full with likely National Player of the Year Kaminsky and his mates. The Badgers have lost just three times this season, once since Jan. 11. Because of Kaminsky, Dekker and Hayes, Wisconsin has a variety of offensive options, and the team has scored at least 71 points in its last seven games. Paige might get his points (look what Oregon's Joseph Young did against the Badgers -- 30 points), but Wisconsin is simply too balanced to be knocked off by an inconsistent team like North Carolina.

No. 6 Xavier vs. No. 2 Arizona

Key Matchup: Whistles vs. Wildcats. Like Wisconsin, Arizona has only lost three times this season and just twice in the new year. In each of the losses (to UNLV, Oregon State, Arizona State), the Wildcats had at least one player in foul trouble, which exposed the team's relative lack of depth. Xavier will be forced to attack the rim and get at least one of Arizona's starters to get whistled. If the Musketeers can play against the untested Wildcats bench, they stand a chance.

Arizona will Win IF: nothing crazy happens. Arizona has been one of the nation's steadiest teams this year. The squad won the Pac-12 regular season going away for the second straight season. It beat San Diego State and Gonzaga in the non-conference slate. The starting five can compete with any team because it has size and balance to play any type of game. Freshman Stanley Johnson, Brandon Ashley and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson form a potent trio of frontcourt scorers. It would also be best if point guard T.J. McConnell concentrates on distributing. He averaged 8.1 field-goal attempts, but took at least 10 shots in each of the three Wildcat losses.

Xavier will Win IF: it hits a ton of three-pointers. At this point, Xavier is a little lucky to be in the Sweet 16. The Musketeers have taken advantage of the schedule in the form of Ole Miss (which had to travel from Dayton after knocking out BYU in the First Four) and Georgia State, which knocked out Baylor. The closest thing the Musketeers this year saw to Arizona is Villanova, and those Wildcats swept the three meetings. If perimeter gunners like Trevon Bluiett, Myles Davis, Dee Davis and Remy Abell get hot from three-point range, the Arizona defense could loosen.

Player to Watch: Jalen Reynolds, Xavier. Many are convinced that the 6-foot-9 sophomore is a star in the making. He's played off the bench this season because coach Chris Mack hoped to limit Reynolds' propensity to foul. The Detroit native fouled out of four games and has accrued at least four fouls in four of his last seven games. If he can stay away from the whistle, Reynolds could test even the vaunted Arizona defense.

Prediction: While Mack should know what former boss Miller has in store for the Musketeers, the Big East's lone remaining entry in the Big Dance will have to play a superlative game to keep things close. Perhaps many UCLA fans will come to the game to root against Arizona, but it is more likely to be a Wildcats partisan crowd. That being the case, the Wildcats should roll into the Elite Eight for the third time in the last four seasons where Wisconsin should await for the second straight year.