College Capper: Best Bets Week 10

Chris' Picks

A second 4-1 week in three weeks feels good. And that bad loss last week came with a depleted Louisville defense that I wouldn't have targeted had I had full information at publishing. Let's see if we can keep it going, partly by going to the same well I've gone to all year. Not seeing the obvious sucker bet that I've highlighted weekly and stayed away from. Perhaps Coastal Carolina -18.5 is a bit too obvious, and they are due a letdown. I'm also high on Clemson, and they feel discounted as my two spread projection models have them closer to seven or eight-point favorites, but it's a hair risky given we don't know who will suit up.

BYU (-3) at Boise State (Friday

BYU has been steamrolling teams, averaging a 44-13 victory through seven contests. This will certainly be their biggest test, and winning at Boise is no small ask, as the Broncos have fallen just three times at home since 2016. But this feels like a big step up for Boise, who has questions under center after Hank Bachmeier missed last week's game against Air Force, a contest where Boise's defense allowed 6.3 YPC. They've already surrendered six rushing scores in two games, and BYU averages three per game. This figures to be a four-quarter contest, but the Cougars will be fully focused with an undefeated season hanging in the balance, and take care of business.

Liberty (+14.5) at Virginia Tech

Obviously liked this more at opening (+16.5) and I absolutely don't think the Hokies are on upset alert. But I don't trust their offensive play calling enough to expect a blowout, and I think the Flames rushing attack can find some success against the VT defense, schemed up by HC Hugh Freeze. The Hokies will run the ball at will as well, which I hope creates a quick-moving contest, where a few scores from the Flames keep this inside the number.

Cincinnati (-13.5) vs. Houston

I'll keep dipping into the Bearcats and their defense. They haven't allowed more than 13 points since their opener against Austin Peay, holding Memphis and Army to 10 and SMU to 13. That's flat out dominant, even if they may be due a let down at some point. Cincy has also gotten their offense going, putting up 91 in their last two, and are showing improved balance. It's not asking a lot to cover this number when the defense isn't likely to surrender much, so I'll keep targeting the Bearcats.

Boston College (-14) at Syracuse

Another repeat offender, let's load up against Syracuse again. Despite a 1-6 record, they are a stable 3-4 ATS, so this isn't a slam dunk. And maybe Clemson beats BC for a second straight week after last Saturday's near-miss. But the Eagles are 5-1 ATS, and while the defense has faltered a bit, the offense is flourishing with downfield passing from Phil Jurkovec. They'll find some needed balance here with RB David Bailey getting on track against a porous Orange run defense, and score more than enough to cover.

Florida (+3) vs. Georgia

It's a classic offense vs. defense matchup, where the normal adage is Target the Defense. But Florida has scored at least 38 points in every outing, a number Georgia has reached only once. The Dawgs also gave up 41 to Alabama, and I think UF QB Kyle Trask is up to the task here. There's no doubt the Florida defense leaves plenty to be desired, so Georgia gets theirs in no distinct manner, but taking the better offense getting points feels right for me.

Last week: 4-1, Season: 20-22-2

GREG'S PICKS

I failed to keep the 4-1 train going this past week, but I only fell off the pace by one game, settling into my standard 3-2 record for the week. After a 1-7 start through three weeks, I've posted a record of 18-10 over six consecutive winning weeks. I'll try not to separate my shoulder while patting myself on the back, it's a good run, sure, but these things can turn on a dime. I'm going to stay focused because we have a long season ahead of us.

Quick recap from this past week, winners were Minnesota over (easy), Alabama, and Boise State. Alabama and Boise State did not have a huge margin, but both teams were in complete control the entire way. Losses were Iowa, which fell apart after a great start, and the over in the LSU game, which nearly hit after a huge scoring drought to start the game. It's always tough to hit an over when one team doesn't show up on offense as LSU failed to do.     

BYU   (-3) at Boise State

I mentioned that Boise State was in control the entire way this past week against Air Force, but I have to admit I was a little concerned that the Broncos allowed 30 points to the Falcons and more than half of those came in the 1st half. BYU has had some letdowns on defense as well, but not to that extent. As for the offenses, there's every reason to believe that both teams have legitimate attacks on that side of the ball, but while BYU has been tested, Boise State has not. BYU has seven games under its belt and Boise just two. The Cougars have too much invested into this special season to slip up here.       

Northwestern (-3.5) vs Nebraska

Northwestern dismantled Maryland in week one, a team that went on to score 45 points in its next game, and in week two all the Wildcats did was go to Iowa City and win in one of the toughest environments in the BIG 10. Nebraska put up a fight in its first game at Ohio State a couple weeks ago, but they fell apart in the second half, so I'm not sure the 'Huskers deserve much credit for hanging tough for 30 minutes. This has the makings of a special season for the Wildcats and I don't see them slipping up at home against an average team.              

Over (62) Minnesota at Illinois 

I was expecting this number to be a little higher, but I'm glad it's not as Minnesota has to improve on defense at some point, right? This happened a couple of years ago and the Gophers' defense somehow turned on a dime. I don't think they have the personnel to do that this year, however, so the struggles should continue. Illinois is down to its 12th-string QB, but it shouldn't matter. Seriously, Illinois was hit hard with injuries and COVID departures this past week, but it still managed to put up 24 points against a Purdue team that surely has a better defense than Minnesota. As for the Gopher offense, they are as strong as ever, they're good for 30+ every week against non-elite BIG 10 teams.           

Oklahoma   (-37.5) vs. Kansas

Only one thing can keep Oklahoma from covering here and that's complacency. Luckily, the Sooners have a bye next week before they face their in-state rivals. Now, it's not going to be easy to stay focused against a team like Kansas because the Jayhawks are just terrible, but it's because they are so bad, that I feel comfortable with this number. Not only are they inept on offense and defense, but their special teams are giving up scores every week as well. If Oklahoma gets a score or two on special teams, this number could be covered before the 4th quarter starts.        

Over (51.5) Clemson at Notre Dame

I was leaning Clemson in this spot as I think the scare it suffered this past week only set the Tigers up for success this week, but it looks like the Tigers may be without some key personnel on defense this week and I'm not sure they can overcome that without Trevor Lawrence. The offense was not the issues this past week against Boston College and I fully expect the Tigers to move the ball this week as well, but the defense, which struggled while at full strength this past week will not only be facing a better offense this week, but they'll be doing so shorthanded. .          

Last Week: 3-2-0, Season: 22-19-0