College Cappers: Picking Winners Week 8

Chris' Picks

I've hit rock bottom; for the second consecutive week. Fade accordingly, and I apologize in advance if I picked your team and jinxed them.

Florida Atlantic -5.5 vs. Marshall (Friday)

Lane Kiffin's bunch appear to have turned the corner after early season drubbings at the hands of Ohio State and UCF. The Owls have won four consecutive, scoring at least 41 points in three, while allowing just 19.5 points per game. Marshall is coming off of an uninspiring win over ODU, but are 1-5 ATS and in its three outright losses it's scored a combined 34 points. The teams have one common opponent, Middle Tennessee State, which beat Marshall by 11 and lost to FAU by 15. I don't find the Owls 26 points better, but think they are at least 10.

Wisconsin -31 at Illinois

This is probably a trap I should avoid, but the temptation is too great, even after the line moved this high after a -25 opening. In three Big Ten games, Illinois has averaged 324.3 yards allowed on the ground and given up eight rushing touchdowns. The Badgers are averaging 5.3 yards per carry and have an obscene 23 rushing scores through six games. They've also earned four shutouts to date. I worry about a look-ahead to Ohio State next week leading to a flat performance, but with Illinois not a threat to score much, the Badgers can hand the ball off, roll up points, and move on.

Cincinnati -17 vs. Tulsa

I liked this a lot more on Sunday evening when it came out at -13, but I'll stay the course. When not playing Ohio State, the Bearcats are 5-0 SU and ATS. They're a balanced offense that ranks 53rd in rushing and while only 83rd in passing. Desmond Ridder has thrown nine TD passes in the last three weeks. Tulsa is anything but balanced, ranking 38th in passing but 117th in rushing, putting up only 2.7 yards per carry. That will allow Cincy to key on the passing game and slow Tulsa's air attack. Tulsa blew a 30-9 lead to SMU, and wilted last week, losing 45-17 to Navy. The Golden Hurricane have beaten only Wyoming and San Jose State and won't be competitive against Cincinnati.

Ohio -7.5 vs. Kent State

Ohio has been one of the year's bigger disappointments,  just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS after being a preseason MAC favorite. Defense has been the Bobcats' undoing, ranking 100th against the pass. This looks like a get-right game, however, as Kent State's 111th-ranked passing attack isn't equipped to exploit them. The Golden Flashes rank 129th against the run, allowing 247 yards per game and 4.85 yards per carry. Considering Kent State has beaten only lowly Akron, Bowling Green and Kennesaw State, and lost its last two trips to Athens by a combined 75-3, Ohio should win going away.

Tulane +4.5 at Memphis

The Green Wave don't appear to be getting the attention they deserve. They're 5-1 SU and ATS, only failing to cover in an 18-point loss at Auburn as 16.5-point dogs. They've scored at least 38 points in every win, averaging 45.8 points per game while allowing only 18.2 per game. The Tigers' loss last week to Temple worries me, as you obviously expect a rebound effort. Their poor run defense (93rd) will be their undoing, failing to slow down a Tulane attack that has put up at least 298 yards in every win. While I think the Green Wave can win outright, getting points seems favorable.

There were quite a few other games I took long looks at, and I will have some other options in the comments section.

Last week: 1-4; Season 16-20-1

GREG'S PICKS

It's been a rough start to the season, and most weeks the picks haven't come easy, but perhaps this is one of those seasons where it just takes a little longer to gain some traction. If last week is any indication, though, the tires are squarely on the pavement. My best week of the season resulted in four winners vs. one loser. The wins came fairly easy as well, which is always a nice bonus. Indiana made a bunch of mistakes, but still covered with ease. The Minnesota under was an easy hit as well. Clemson brought its best game and hammered FSU. The LSU cover was not easy at all, but I'll take it. Iowa failed to cover even though the game was tight the entire way.    

Illinois (+31) vs. Wisconsin

The Badgers have simply done everything right this season. From beating up on cupcakes, to thumping real competition, everything has gone to script for Wisconsin. Here's the problem, though: it's hard to keep up the intensity from week to week, let alone an entire season. The Badgers haven't let up for a single minute the last two weeks, but they are in a classic look-ahead spot this week as there's no reason to consider the Illini a danger — and guess who is on the horizon? Yep, Ohio State is up next, and if you think these kids are focused on the game this week, you are nuts.          

Oklahoma (-33.5) vs. West Virginia 

West Virginia was expected to be bad this season, and while its season hasn't gone off the rails yet, there's still time. The Mountaineers managed to put up a fight against Texas a couple weeks ago, but that was at home. In their only road contest against a legitimate opponent, they lost by 31 at Missouri. The Sooners could suffer a letdown after the win over Texas, but I doubt that will happen as they expected to win that game. Now it's all about impressing the voters and beefing up Jalen Hurts' Heisman numbers.          

Oklahoma State (3.5) vs. Baylor 

My view of Baylor turned when the Bears won at Kansas State two weeks ago, but I have to admit, I was less than impressed with them last week against Texas Tech. The biggest issue is with the offense, which should have had a field day against a lousy Red Raiders rush defense, but they failed to get much going all day. It took a blown call in OT to secure the win, and although the Bears remained undefeated, it seemed like luck played a big role. Oklahoma State lost its second game of the season two week ago to that same Red Raider team, but that was in Lubbock. Look for the Cowboys to bounce back and for Baylor's good fortune to finally run out.

Minnesota (-28) at Rutgers

We are halfway through the season and there are still questions surrounding both these teams. While the Gophers are 6-0, they haven't really played anyone, with the possible exception of Fresno State. Have they improved since the end of last season? As for Rutgers, we know they are bad, but are they historically bad? I guess that depends on how the Scarlett Knights finish, but if they continue on their current track, they'll end up as one of the worst teams in recent memory. Indiana managed to open up on Rutgers last week despite several unforced errors. I don't expect Minnesota to make those errors this week.      

Georgia (-25) vs Kentucky 

Georgia laid a huge egg last week, there's no denying that. The Bulldogs were not ready to play and they paid for it. That won't be the case this week as there's no recovering from another loss. Fortunately, the Bulldogs get a Kentucky team that just isn't very strong. The Wildcats have lost their two SEC games by an average of 16 points, and while this number is higher than that, they are facing much stiffer competition this week. The Bulldogs not only need to win out to reach the CFB Playoff, but they need to rack up some style points as well.    

Last Week: 4-1-0, Season: 17-17-2