College Football Picks: CFB Week 13 Odds, Picks, Predictions and Best Bets

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Published on November 22, 2023

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Chris' Picks

Well, we're at the finish line, and I've finally dug out of a season-long hole! Another 3-2 week makes for a fifth straight week on the plus side, and we're back to .500! Michigan was cruising early before Maryland found a way to exploit their defense. And East Carolina, man, that was a brutal offensive showing, but the thought process there wasn't wrong. For the record, I like the Pirates again this week against Tulsa. Rivalry week is always a tough one to peg: current form, series domination and history of weird things happening. Which ones can we have the most confidence in?

Full disclosure: I had severe writer's block when trying to pen this week's picks. I could make an argument on both sides of most games. Struggle bus in full effect!

Duke (-6) vs. Pittsburgh

The Blue Devils' normally reliable defense has failed them over the last two weeks, allowing 85 points to Virginia and North Carolina. That shouldn't be a problem here, however, as Pittsburgh checks in 114th in scoring at 20.8 ppg. They've reached 21 points in just three of their eight losses, can't run the ball at all and get a few downfield ball prayers weekly. That should play into Duke's defensive strength, which ranks 32nd against the pass and has allowed only nine touchdowns through the air all year. Grayson Loftis has been competent under center, with five touchdowns in the last two. I'll trust him to get it done and the Blue Devils to improve bowl position while Pittsburgh is ready to reset their program in the offseason.

Ohio State (+3.5) at Michigan

Yep, we're going here! I don't know that Michigan has it in them to fix what Maryland solved last week with the quick tempo and short passing exploiting their defense. But more importantly, it's injuries. Michigan now has a banged-up offensive line, and I don't trust the health of top wideout Roman Wilson. I also don't trust Ohio State QB Kyle McCord, but I trust his weapons. This should be a terrific game with shots from each side, but in the end, I'll simply take the points above a field goal.

Troy (-16.5) at Southern Miss

Southern Miss shot their shot last week at Mississippi State, competing for 3+ quarters before finally wilting. I can't see them getting up for this season finale. They want to run the ball with Frank Gore, and Troy is allowing just 3.1 ypc and 97.4 ypg on the ground. The Trojans have won eight straight, six of which have come by at least this number. QB Gunnar Watson has 13 TDs and zero interceptions across his last four, and USM is so bad defensively, ranking 127th by allowing 35.8 ppg. Troy allows 16.6. Those averages hold, at a minimum.

Virginia Tech (-2.5) at Virginia

Disclaimer: I'm a firm believer in putting your money where your mouth is, so I bet every pick listed here all year. I can't bet this as I live in Virginia, and state laws don't allow me to. That doesn't change my belief; I just can't suffer if you do. This rivalry has been absolutely dominated by the Hokies, winning the last two as their program rebuilds, but also 17 of the last 18 and 21 of the last 23. Both teams struggle against the run, but Virginia is worse, which should allow Kyron Drones and Bhayshul Tuten to churn the clock. I'm a huge fan of Virginia QB Anthony Colandrea; he just has a certain moxie about him. But last week was the first time he's played meaningful snaps without an interception. The Hokies need this for bowl eligibility, and UVA will again find a way to lose.

North Carolina (-2.5) at North Carolina State

UNC's porous defense, N.C. State's current resurgence offensively and the better defense, and the home night game scream take the Wolfpack. So, I'll pivot. UNC found every way possible to not only not cover last week, but they should have won at Clemson if not for fumbles at the goal line. I'll admit we can't trust the Heels defensively with anything. But UNC has such a massive advantage in skill players with Drake Maye, Omarion Hampton and Devontez Walker. It will take a Herculean effort from State to win this game. I doubt they can contain, and I doubt they can match points.

Last week: 3-2, Season: 30-30

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Greg's Picks

No matter how the week has started lately, it seems destined to end the same way. Another 2-3, and this time, it was a very frustrating 2-3.

The above sentence is now my permanent header. I'm not trying to go 2-3, but it just keeps finding me.

The week started on a high when WSU and Colorado cruised over the total, even after Shedeur Sanders went out in the 1st half. That momentum was halted the next morning when Michigan let Maryland hang around a bit too long. The pain continued when Alabama piled on in the 2nd half against Chattanooga. I thought I was in a good spot at halftime of that game and Chattanooga even managed to score some points, but Alabama did what most teams don't do in that spot – continue to score with its backups. I got back on track with a fairly easy win on Ohio State over Minnesota. The Gophers are the doormat of the Big 10 currently. The decider came on the over in the Washington/Oregon State game. Unfortunately, there was some rain, which I wasn't aware of, and that definitely had an impact on the final score. Whether they would have topped the number in dry conditions is debatable, but whatever the case, it was a loss.

Under (26.5) Iowa at Nebraska

I can't believe I'm going here, but this is what it's come to with these two teams. It's been a "hold my beer" kind of year when it comes to record-low totals in Iowa games, and we have a new low this week. The reason is that it's not only Iowa contributing to this number but Nebraska as well. Both teams are built similarly, with stout defenses and absolutely nothing to offer on offense. It's hard to imagine any game going under a number this low, but Iowa has gone under 26.5 in four of its past five and Nebraska has gone under in two of its past five. Not under the total, under 26.5! All we need is this game to get to the half at or under 10, and it will be a sweat-free 2nd half. I should mention that this line opened at 29.5 and has been bet down to 26.5, so we've lost a lot of value here, but there's still some at the current number.

Over (64.5) Memphis at Temple

We have two movable objects in this game and one irresistible force. Okay, so calling Memphis' offense and irresistible force is a bit much, but this week, the Tigers might look the part. The main reason I'm on the over here is the lack of defense on either side. Amazingly, both of these teams rank lower than 100th in the country in rushing and passing yards per game. In other words, everything works against these defenses. It's not just yards we're talking about here though; those yards are turning into points…in bunches. Memphis has allowed 42 points per game over its last four, while Temple has allowed over 36 per game over its past five games. Both teams love to throw the ball, so we should see plenty of plays run and points scored.

Missouri (-8.5) at Arkansas

Rivalry games can be tricky; I acknowledge that, but the talent disparity here seems to trump the notion that Arkansas can keep this game close. Arkansas decided to keep its HC this past week after rumors were swirling about his dismissal, and that could give the Hogs a boost, but I don't think that emotion will carry them through 60 minutes. Missouri almost slipped up this past week at home against Florida, and that was predictable after a big home win over Tennessee the week prior. Still, now the Tigers have that out of their system, and it's time to take care of their rival and improve their bowl position. Arkansas' defense is ranked in the top 50 against the run and the pass, but it seems to have hit a wall recently, as evidenced by its 48-10 trouncing by Auburn. I'm expecting Missouri to pick up where Auburn left off.

Oregon (-13.5) vs Oregon State

I like Oregon State. The Beavers are solid in every aspect of the game, on offense and defense, but there's a problem waiting around the corner this week, and that problem is the Oregon run defense. The Ducks are 2nd in the nation against the run, and if they make it difficult for OSU to run, I'm not sure I trust D.J. Uiagalelei to keep the Beavers close. Oregon State is solid on defense, but if there is a vulnerability, it's through the air, and you can bet that Bo Nix and company will expose it. OSU managed to keep Michael Penix Jr. in check this past week, but again, weather played a large part in that. This is the most balanced offense the Beavers will have seen this year, and I think it will cause some issues.

Under (45.5) Ohio State at Michigan

I don't know what it is about this game, but in recent years, this matchup has always resulted in high scores. The last time this game ended up under 50 points total was 2012. So why am I taking the under? One thing both of these teams have had in common over the past decade is a bunch of talent on the offense, especially Ohio State. I'm not so sure that's the case this year, though. Outside of Marvin Harrison Jr., I'm not sure there's a whole lot in the tank in Columbus. Michigan has most of its parts back from last season, but the Wolverines haven't really looked like an offensive powerhouse this season, especially over the past few weeks. Let's not forget the defenses either, which both rank in the top-5 in the country in just about every metric. Unlike previous years, the winner this year will have to grind out a win.

Last Week: 2-3-0; Season 25-35-0

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Jeff's Picks

I escaped with a 3-2 record last week and kept my head above water. We all underestimated Maryland, but I liked my UTSA Over, UGA win and a Wolfpack win over Virginia Tech. I have a good feeling about this week, as I have equal confidence in all of my picks.

OVER 51.5 UTSA @ Tulane

This should be a back-and-forth game, and although you can credit Tulane's defense as the better group, the Roadrunners have been red-hot with a healthy Frank Harris. Tulane and UTSA aren't great against the pass, so the key for both teams will involve advancing through the air. If both quarterbacks are dialed in, it should be easy for the teams to hit 52 points.

Clemson (-7) @ South Carolina

Weird things always seem to happen to Clemson at Williams-Brice Stadium. I credit the Gamecocks for hanging with Georgia and beating Kentucky, but they need this win to be bowl-eligible. Clemson can push this line through via its defense. Georgia was slow to get their act together early in the season, and Kentucky's defense isn't anything to write home about. Spencer Rattler and the Gamecocks got very lucky last year with a 31-30 win, and Rattler threw two picks and was far from perfect. It was also a horrible night for DJ Uiagalelei, and it ended up being his last start. Although Cade Klubnik is streaky, a solid defense and running game will win the day.

Louisville -6.5 vs. Kentucky

Louisville has been lousy against the spread this season, and they're 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Despite those negative metrics, I still like this opportunity for the Cards, and if they can head into the ACC championship 11-1, they could get into their biggest bowl in team history. Kentucky's pass defense is below average, and Jack Plummer should be able to get the ball to his playmakers.

Kansas -6 @ Cincinnati

The Bearcats should be outmatched here. Their defense is awful, ranking 115th in EPA/Play, and assuming Jason Bean is healthy, he should have success. Emory Jones has disappointed and has trouble getting the team in the end zone. They rank 118th in red zone touchdown percentage. I don't trust either defense, but I think Kansas will make more stops and control the time of possession.

Arizona -10.5 @ Arizona State

The Wildcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country, and they can beat any team on any given week, with standout Noah Fifita directing the offense. He has two great wide receivers at his disposal and two explosive running backs, and their defense is as good as any in the Pac-12. Meanwhile, the Sun Devils have found some avenues of improvement, but they need help moving the chains. The Wildcats are in the top 10 in success rate and should move the ball at will, and it will take a Herculean effort by ASU's defense to keep Arizona at bay.

Last Week: 3-2

Season: 31-28-1 (51.6%)

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