College Football Picks: Picking the Bowls

As anyone could have predicted at the beginning of the season, controversy reigned supreme last week when the regular season ended.

As Saturday night unfolded, one thing became clear ... this was going to be a mess. Had Ohio State lost or even looked pedestrian against Wisconsin, it would have been a lot easier to pick the final four, but there still would have been some controversy. That said, while picking four teams was difficult this season, can you imagine what would have happened if the BCS system needed to pick two teams? I think we can all agree that even though the system is not perfect, it's an improvement. Oh, and those asking for an eight-team playoff? Tell me, which teams would be seventh and eighth? Would there be controversy involved and would those teams even be worthy of a spot this year? Instead of answering all of those questions, I'll sum it up with this ... a four-team system is just fine. Every team left out had its chance to get in and failed.

I still think the Big 12 should have received a berth in the final four, be it Baylor or TCU. Yes, Ohio State looked the part last Saturday, but how soon we forget just how bad the Big Ten looked just a couple months ago. As for Wisconsin, well, another look at that resume and you have to wonder why anyone thought the Badgers were a worthy opponent at all.

All of that is in the past, though. It's bowl season, and although it hasn't been a great season personally, the slate is wiped clean, sort of, and it's time to move on.

As we look ahead, a couple things to remember as we enter bowl season. One, coaching is huge, feel free to use that as a tie-breaker if there aren't any other obvious advantages on the field. Two-to-three weeks to prepare for a game is in an eternity, and there's a reason that some coaches have great records in bowl games. Second, not only is it bowl season, but it's also suspension season. Rarely do we make it through a bowl season without a rash of major suspensions. Keep an eye out for those suspensions and they can have a huge impact.

One last note, due to the fact that the bowls span several weeks, the layout of this column is a little different. The games will be listed in chronological order, and I'll make a note in parenthesis which category they belong in.

As always, I'll tweet any insights I come up with after this article is posted. Follow me at @gregvara. This is more important than ever as this article will be posted weeks in advance of certain games, so I may actually switch sides prior to the start of a game.

Season Records

Cream of the Crop (CC) -- 17-32-1
Best of the Rest (BR) -- 22-24-1
PASSing Thoughts (PT) -- 41-30

Dec. 20

Nevada vs. UL-Lafayette: This line has moved three points in the direction of ULL since it opened last week. Whenever we have two low-profile teams, I usually go with the line move, and considering it's sitting at a "pick," I might as well stick with that theory. Should be plenty of points in this one as well, so might as well double-up on the over.

Side: ULL even (PT)
Total: Over 60.5 (BR)

UTEP vs. Utah State: Utah State is on its 13th QB this season, so this could be a tough one to pull out. OK, so it's not double-digits yet, but there are three QBs listed on the injury report for this game. Luckily, Utah State has a solid defense and that defense will carry the day. Ten points is a bit much to ask for a team without much of an offensive attack, though, so let's just stick with the under.

Total: Under 49 (BR)

Utah vs. Colorado State: Two fairly evenly matched teams here, so I'm going to look at the motivation angle, which might be on the side of CSU. Utah's season turned on a blunder by one of its WR early in the Oregon game, and it hasn't been the same since. That felt like the peak of the Ute's season, and I can't imagine that this game holds much interest to them.

Side: CSU +4 (BR)

Western Michigan vs. Air Force: Both teams rely heavily on the run, and both are fairly adept at stopping the run. I think you know where I am going here. Look for a grind-it-out slugfest with turnovers deciding the winner. I can't tell you which side will win, but I can tell you that neither team is going to score much.

Total: Under 56.5 (CC)

Bowling Green vs. South Alabama: Ugh, what to do here? South Alabama goes bowling for the first time, so the motivation is there, but how will the Jaguars handle it? Bowling Green has been there done that, but it was pretty much a lackluster year from the Falcons. Each team was 5-3 in conference, but Bowling Green comes from a stronger conference, so ...

Side: Bowling Green +2.5 (PT)

Dec. 22

BYU vs. Memphis: I don't understand the line movement in this game. The Cougars opened as a one-point favorite, but the line has since moved two points in favor of Memphis. Unlike the line move mentioned in the Nevada game, these teams, well BYU at least, is not a low-profile team, so I'm not too worried that I'm missing something. BYU has done fine without its two star offensive players, and the Cougars should be just fine in this one as well.

Side: BYU +1 (CC)

Dec. 23

Northern Illinois vs. Marshall: Marshall has s high-profile offense and spent much of the year undefeated, which is why the public has an inflated view of this team. Yes, the offense is prolific, but the defense is very vulnerable as proven in the Western Kentucky game when the Herd surrendered 60-plus points. NIU is not the same team it was a few years ago, but it's certainly capable of keeping up with Marshall.

Side: NIU +10 (CC)

Navy vs. San Diego State: San Diego State is out for blood in this rematch of the 2010 Poinsettia Bowl, and Navy had better get ready. No? OK, how about this: SDSU was fairly stout against the run this year and all Navy does is run the ball. Oh, and Navy didn't dominate its schedule like it has in years past. It's just not that impressive of a Navy squad this year.

Side: SDSU -3 (CC)

Dec. 24

Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky: Entering this game I wanted to know just one thing - does CMU have a top-ranked defense? The answer is no, so the conclusion is simple ... this one is going over the total. WKU has a lethal offense as well as a lethal defense, lethal to its chances of winning that is. I expect this total to move upward as we get closer to game time, but as long as it stays in the 60s, I see no problem taking the over.

Total: Over 66 (CC)

Fresno State vs. Rice: Another fishy line movement, and this one scares me a bit. Fresno State got off to an awful start this season, but the Bulldogs righted the ship and played some good ball toward the end of the season. Rice, however, surrendered 76 points in its most recent game. Neither team had a signature win this season, but Fresno State at least beat a decent team in San Diego State. I'll take the bait I guess.

Side: Fresno State +1.5 (BR)

Dec. 26

Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech: Louisiana Tech failed miserably when it stepped up in competition this year, and while Illinois is no Oklahoma or Auburn, the Illini do reside in the Big Ten. Yes, the Big Ten is down, but it's still superior to where LT comes from. Illinois did not have a banner season, but it finished on a high note, and I can only imagine that the players are feeling a little embarrassed to be six-point underdogs.

Side: Illinois +6 (BR)

Rutgers vs. North Carolina: Man, there really are way too many bowl games. It's hard to pick out when you have two teams from non-power conferences, but it really becomes obvious when you see these two teams in a bowl. North Carolina scored only seven points in its regular-season finale ... that won't happen again. Neither team will have trouble scoring in this game as Carolina's defense is as bad as ever.

Total: Over 66.5 (CC)

North Carolina State vs. Central Florida: The aforementioned team that held the potent North Carolina offense to just seven points? You guessed it, N.C. State. We've established that the Wolfpack can play defense, but what about UCF? Well, the Knights bring one of the nation's best rush defenses into this game. You see where I'm headed here, right? The only thing keeping this game out of the upper categories is the total in 40s.

Total: Under 49.5 (PT)

Dec. 27

Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati: This would have been a fun game to watch about five years ago, but neither team is what it once was. Cincinnati remains closer to its brighter days, however, while Virginia Tech is a mere shell of what it once was. That's not to say that the Hokies won't be back at some point, it's just that this year, they are not a good team. Cincinnati is no powerhouse, but the Bearcats have plenty, especially on offense to win this game.

Side: Cincinnati -3

Duke vs. Arizona State: The Blue Devils surprised a lot of people last season by making it to the ACC Championship game, but this season hasn't been quite the same. The Blue Devils flew under the radar most of the season, and just when the stakes were raised, they fell flat in consecutive losses to Virginia Tech and North Carolina. The only problem I see with ASU is a lack of motivation. ASU was one win away from a Pac-12 championship game berth, but the Sun Devils lost at home to rival Arizona. Still, ASU is the better team, and the number isn't all that big.

Side: ASU -7

Miami vs. South Carolina: Neither team played up to expectations this year, but both teams have had their moments. Most of those moments have been on the offensive side, though, and since neither team has much to play for, I expect some lackluster play on defense.

Total: Over 61.5

Penn State vs. Boston College: This one could get ugly. Wait a minute; this one got ugly the minute that the two teams were announced. The total in this game is 40. Sure, each team has a strong defense, but this game is going to be more about a battle of feeble offenses, yet with a total so low, it's impossible to go under. It's with that thought that I will swallow hard and take the over, hoping that with so much prep time one of these offenses can cook up something.

Total: Over 40

Nebraska vs. USC: The biggest winner from the Big Ten championship game, other than Ohio State, might have been Cornhuskers. Remember them? The team that got run over a few weeks ago by Melvin Gordon, then lost at home to Minnesota and barely won at Iowa? Yep, this team is still not right and the Huskers are about to get exposed ... again. USC is not a great team, but the offense has looked great at times this season, and it will again in this game.

Side: USC-6.5

Dec. 29

West Virginia vs. Texas A&M: Remember opening week when Texas A&M took South Carolina out to the woodshed? At that point it looked like the Aggie fans were in for another special season, but as we later found out, South Carolina's defense was awful. West Virginia had its own early season moment when the Mountaineers knocked off Baylor. In short, both teams peaked early, and there's really no way to tell which team is going to bring it. With that in mind, I'll play to the strength of both teams -- the offense.

Total: Over 67 (PT)

Clemson vs. Oklahoma: This game will be decided not between the lines, but on the injury report prior to the game. Clemson is simply not the same team without its QB, and the same holds true for Oklahoma. Neither team can function properly without its starting QB. Yes, Samaje Perine set a FBS rushing record with the backup QB under center, but that was at home against Kansas. If you caught the Sooners' most recent game against Oklahoma State, you know that their offense is entirely one-dimensional without Trevor Knight. There is still no line for this game, so I'll leave it at this, if one starting QB is healthy, take that team. If both are healthy, take Clemson. If both are out, take Clemson.

Side: TBD

Texas vs. Arkansas: I like to spot teams on the rise during bowl season and jump all over them; unfortunately, two of the most improved teams throughout the season are meeting up in this game. Arkansas is the better team, though, and even though the season didn't turn out like it hoped, this game will serve as a springboard for next season. Texas looks a lot better now than it did a few months ago, but it won't matter.

Side: Arkansas -6.5 (CC)

Dec. 30

Notre Dame vs. LSU: On the opposite end of the spectrum we have these two teams, which started the season well, only to fall flat in the final month. To be fair, Notre Dame's fall from glory was much more aggressive than LSU's. LSU could dominate this game if it shows up. That's always the problem when one team appears to be better on paper, though. What exactly is LSU playing for here? Notre Dame is playing for respect after collapsing during the final month of the season, but LSU? Well, I guess the only hope is it sees the golden domes across the way and get pumped up to beat the name.

Side: LSU -7 (BR)

Louisville vs. Georgia: Louisville's QB situation is in flux, and that could prove to be a problem as it will need to score a lot of points to keep up with Georgia. The Bulldogs had higher aspirations entering the season, but they've been out of the national championship picture for a while, so they've had plenty of time to adjust expectations.

Side: Georgia -6.5 (BR)

Maryland vs. Stanford: I'm worried about Stanford's state of mind entering this game. The Cardinal did not have a great year, but they managed to come up big in their final regular-season game and knock UCLA out of the Pac-12 championship game. Add to that, Stanford will have to travel a matter of minutes to reach the site of this game. I can't imagine the players are all that excited for this one. I expect Maryland to hang tough and stay within the number.

Side: Maryland +14 (PT)

Dec. 31

Mississippi vs. TCU: Disappointed or angry? Probably both. I'm speaking of TCU's state of mind entering this game, because it's pivotal. If TCU has its collective head on, the Horned Frogs should win this game. If not, they're in trouble. Ole Miss proved a bit fraudulent toward the end of the season, but give the Rebels credit, they came up big at the end of the season against their rival Mississippi State. TCU was inside the top 4 heading into the final week and did everything it could to secure that spot on the final weekend, but it wasn't enough. I'm sure that's going to be a challenge for TCU as it has little time to readjust expectations. TCU is the better team, though, and if the Horned Frogs show up ready to play, they should cover this number.

Side: TCU -3.5 (PT)

Boise State vs. Arizona: Somehow, some way, Boise State slipped back into one of the top bowl games again this year. The thing is, I'm not sure the Broncos belong this year, and it that's mostly because of their defense. Boise State struggled much of the season against some fairly weak competition and now faces a high-potent offense in Arizona. Another problem for Boise -- Arizona looked awful in its most recent game against Oregon. That game is not sitting well with the Wildcats, and you can bet that they are ready to show the nation it was a fluke. Luckily for them, they face a vulnerable Boise State defense.

Side: Arizona -3 (CC)

Georgia Tech vs. Mississippi State: While TCU did everything it could to remain in the top 4 down the stretch; MSU failed its most important test late in the season. That can't be sitting well with the Bulldogs, but there's a fine line between being upset and being depressed. MSU essentially controlled its own destiny heading into its final game and for lack of a better term, laid an egg. I have to wonder how they will respond in this game against an ACC opponent. Georgia Tech got better as the season wore on and had a reasonable chance at upsetting Florida State in the ACC championship game. The Yellow Jackets' triple-option is difficult to prepare for, and if the Bulldogs' heads are not in the game, Georgia Tech could pull off the upset.

Side: Georgia Tech +6.5 (BR)

Jan. 1

Wisconsin vs. Auburn: A couple schools of thought here. First, everyone saw how bad Wisconsin played in the Big Ten championship game. There's no way that the Badgers will come out flat after a performance like that. While I see that angle, there's still a big problem ... Auburn's offense is every bit as explosive as Ohio State's. I took a look back at Wisconsin's resume and the Badgers faced just one high-powered offense this season, and we all saw what happened. However, the size of Wisconsin's O-line has proven a problem to out-of-conference teams in bowl games over the past decade, and Auburn isn't exactly stout on defense. On the other hand, Wisconsin just had another coach bail. I think the first quarter will tell the tale for the Badgers. If they get behind early, it could get ugly again. The safe play, though, is to take the over and not worry about which Badger team shows up.

Total: Over 61.5 (CC)

Michigan State vs. Baylor: Baylor, like TCU, is facing a fork in the road this bowl season. On the left is self pity, woe is me, we should have finished in the final four. On the right is, let's show the nation how bad the Big Ten actually is. After all, it was Ohio State, from the Big Ten, that stole Baylor's spot. Do the Bears come out mad as hell? Do they come out flat, wallowing in self pity? Does it matter if they come out mad as hell? That's the question for me. I believe Baylor's goal is not only to win, but to prove a point. The question is, can they accomplish the goal of proving they belonged in the final four? The nice thing is, if you are on Baylor's side, you only need to cover three points, which isn't much to ask.

Side: Baylor -3 (BR)

Minnesota vs. Missouri: If you've followed the column at all this year, you know that I've been here, there and everywhere with the Gophers. I've had a good read on them at certain points and been completely lost at other points. I admittedly don't have a great feel for them entering this bowl season, but I'll give it a go anyway. What this game comes down to in my mind is this -- Missouri won its division in the SEC, the best conference in the country, and Minnesota finished in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten. I don't expect a blowout, but I do expect Missouri to be in control much of the game.

Side: Missouri -6 (BR)

Florida State vs. Oregon: Florida State has struggled in the favorite role all season, and it will be interesting to see how the Noles respond in this newfound underdog role. My initial impression is that win or lose, FSU will make this game interesting. Oregon is clearly the favorite, but nine points is a little steep against a team that hasn't lost since, well, when was the last time it lost? I think Oregon wins this game, but somehow, someway, FSU keeps it close. Oh, and as for the total, I think both defenses show up, for a bit, and keep this game under the total.

Side: FSU +9 (PT)
Total: Under 72.5 (PT)

Ohio State vs. Alabama: Similar situation here. Alabama is the better team, the Tide should win the game, but nine points is a lot, especially considering that Alabama doesn't bring a dominant defense into this game. The three weeks of practice will benefit OSU much more than Alabama as it will give the Buckeyes time to get their new QB up to speed. Again, I don't think OSU wins, but the Buckeyes should keep it close for a while. This game should be within the spread late in the game, but a TD either way could swing the result.

Side: OSU +9 (PT)

Jan. 2

Pittsburgh vs. Houston: This isn't the same Houston team we've become accustomed to over the past decade, as evidence by the total of only 53 points in this game. Consider that Pittsburgh has found itself in some major shootouts this year and it's really hard to refrain from taking the over here, which is why I'm just going to do it. Although Houston has dialed it back this year, the Cougars still have a lot of weapons on offense, and, as mentioned, Pittsburgh is no stranger to shootouts.

Total: Over 53.5

Iowa vs. Tennessee: Iowa somehow found its way into another January bowl even though the Hawkeyes were average at best this year. Tennessee doesn't seem to belong here either, but at least the Vols bring a little bit of excitement to this one with their new QB Josh Dobbs. Add to that, the excitement of the Vols playing in January for the first time in 30 years and .. OK, it only seems that long. My point is this, Iowa has been there and done that and another no-count January game has to be getting old.

Side: Tennessee -4 (BR)

UCLA vs. Kansas State: I have a strange feeling that UCLA might still be dealing with the disappointment of losing a chance at the Pac-12 championship when the Bruins suit up for this one. That alone might be reason to pick against them, but there's more to fading them in this game. Mostly, it has to do with their opponent, Kansas State, which had a pretty solid season. Brett Hundley will be auditioning for the next level in this game, so I expect plenty of fight out of him, but I'm not so sure about the rest of the team.

Side: Kansas State -1 (BR)

Oklahoma State at Washington: A couple things in play here. First, OSU is coming in off an incredible win against its biggest rival. That doesn't bode well for the Cowboys and their staff as I have to imagine they've had some trouble getting their kids to focus over these last few weeks. Second, Chris Peterson coaches Washington. I'll throw in a third; this game means more to Washington.

Side: Washington -5 (CC)

Jan. 3

East Carolina vs. Florida: In years past, I would expect the Gators to look right past this game, but this has been anything but a normal year in Gainesville. The Gators might have left everything on the field when they played FSU last month, but I have a feeling they'll get back up for this game. East Carolina looked good against some pretty bad competition this year, but they won't have nearly the same level of success against an SEC defense.

Side: Florida -7 (CC)

Jan. 4

Toledo vs. Arkansas State: Points, points and some more points. Toledo isn't scoring or giving up quite as many points as it was early in the year, but given some time to properly gameplan, I expect Arkansas State to adjust accordingly and make Toledo's defense look like it did three months ago.

Total: Over 67 (CC)

Jan. 12

National Championship

There's obviously no line in this game yet because we don't know the teams yet, but I'll still throw my two cents in. I expect Alabama and Oregon to win their semifinal games. In that case, I would expect Alabama to be somewhere around a three-point favorite in the national championship. I would lean toward Alabama as I think the Tide offense will give the Ducks defense fits. Sure, the Oregon offense will still get theirs as well, but not to the degree that Alabama will. The more interesting angle will be the total. It will likely be in the low 60s, and in that case I would love the over.

Prediction: Alabama 41-30