College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 4

CHRIS' PICKS

Last week was a bit more hit or miss than Week 2's perfection, but I can live with the overall results. I'm a fool for buying Nebraska, but I also think the lines moved a bit to where the Duke push could have been a win, as I saw the line close at 13.5 at some places. I don't have a great feel for Week 4. A lot of lines seems skewed a bit toward last week's results rather than what common sense would dictate. Go against the grain, or go against your gut seems to be the magic question. I also like to pick a handful of games, then eliminate a few to narrow my scope. That didn't happen this week, which could be a very good, or very bad, thing. Fingers crossed!

Utah –3.5 at Arizona (Friday night)

The Utes have played impressive defense through three weeks, allowing no more than 263 total yards in every game and only 15.0 points per game. They seem a bit more battle-tested than the Wildcats, having won at BYU while blasting North Dakota and San Jose State, while Arizona's only tough game resulted in a home loss to Houston. It may take some time Friday, but I expect the Utes to grind out a comfortable win.

Maryland –3.5 vs. UCF

It's tough to know how any of the Florida teams will play after their long layoff due to Hurricane Irma. And while the Knights are a better team than they were a year ago, so are the Terps,, who beat the Knights in Orlando last year by six. Maryland has 10 rushing touchdowns through two games while averaging 7.97 yards per carry, and should be able to gash the Knights who allowed FIU to average 5.15 yards per tote against them back in Week 1.

Alabama –18.5 at Vanderbilt

This game features the nation's top scoring and yardage defense – the Vanderbilt Commodores! Who would have guessed that Vandy would allow only 4.3 points and 198.3 yards per game? Having allowed only 13 points, it may be a hard sell to like 'Bama at this number. But c'mon, this is still Alabama against Vanderbilt. The Tide physically imposed their will on Florida State en route to a 17-point win where the 'Noles managed only seven points. If FSU can only get seven, how can we expect Vanderbilt to score? I don't think the Tide will go to Nashville and win by 40, but between offense, defense and special teams, they'll find a way to score enough to cover.

Wake Forest –3 at Appalachian State

The Deacons are getting it done on both sides of the ball, allowing only 9.0 points per game while scoring 43.7, and doing so against Boston College and Utah State, not just FCS schools. Appalachian State, meanwhile, has only put up 10 and 20 points against Georgia and Texas State, respectively. It simply hasn't been an explosive team, while Wake Forest has multiple weapons at both running back and wideout.

California +17 vs. USC

Hopefully, I'm not overreacting to Cal's impressive defensive performance last week against Ole Miss. Assuming the Bears actually want to play defense, they seem capable of some combo of getting enough stops, plus scoring enough points, to stay within this number. The Trojans have given up at least 24 points in every game, are banged up on both sides of the ball, and Cal is averaging 31.7 points. I don't have USC on upset alert, but think the Bears can either keep it close, or get a backdoor cover late.

Mississippi State +5.5 at Georgia

This has defensive battle written all over it, as Georgia ranks 16th in total defense and Mississippi State fourth. Both have been particularly stingy against the run, and as such, I trust MSU's Nick Fitzgerald over Georgia's freshman Jake Fromm. I don't know about a straight up victory for Mississippi State, as a bit of a letdown after last week could happen, but with points on the field likely to be at a premium, taking the points in a potential one-possession game feels right.

Connecticut –4.5 vs. East Carolina (Sunday)

I don't have great conviction about Connecticut, especially after being blown out by a mediocre at best Virginia team last week. But this is likely the lowest number you'll get against East Carolina all season. Maybe it's the only game the Pirates can win, but until they prove they indeed can win, I'm going to assume they won't. East Carolina has allowed 395.5 yards per game through the air the last two weeks and 10 passing touchdowns. The Huskies want to be an open, pass-happy offense, and they'll get a chance to exploit this weak secondary.

Last week: 3-3-1; Season: 10-6-1

GREG'S PICKS

Three weeks into the 2017 season and I'm yet to post a losing week. Obviously, I'm not the superstitious type. Last week was a bizarre week in that none of my games were close. The two losses, Pittsburgh and Louisville, were blowouts, and two of the wins, the totals in the UCLA and ASU games, were over after three quarters and the third win, outright dog Purdue, was a blow-out winner. 



Penn State (-12.5) at Iowa



This game is being touted as a tough game for Penn State, but I just don't see it. Yes, I am aware that Iowa beat Michigan in a similar spot last season, but I dare say that last year's Iowa team was better than this year's team. Perhaps I'm relying too much on Iowa's effort against Iowa State, but I just can't get the image of the Cyclones running up and down the field against the Hawkeyes out of my head. After the Hawks held Wyoming in check in Week 1, it was thought that Iowa's defense was as good as ever, but that theory was blown out of the water in Ames. Penn State missed out on a playoff berth last season because of losses in spots like this – the Nittany Lions won't let it happen again.


Kentucky (+2.5) vs. Florida



This line has everything to do with history and nothing to do with the play on the field this season. Florida has the name and a long streak against Kentucky, but what the Gators don't have is much firepower on offense. Kentucky isn't a powerhouse or anything like that, but the Wildcats have a decent team this season and they see what is likely their best chance in a long time to beat the Gators. Both teams are coming in off of nice conference wins, but Kentucky's was more impressive and the Cats are at home. 



Notre Dame (-3.5) at Michigan State

It appears as though the Spartans are better than they were last season, but that's not saying much. When we last saw the Fighting Irish, they lost at home, but they showed well against a solid Georgia team. Oh have the times changed — yes I am praising Notre Dame for putting up a good fight. If MSU is on its way back, it will win this game, but I haven't seen enough from the Spartans in their first two games to indicate they are significantly better than they were last year.

Auburn (-17.5) at Missouri



OK, this line makes sense, unlike last week's line in the Missouri game. Even with a sensible line, I still like the Tigers to take Missouri out to the wood shed. If Auburn has any issues, it's the offense, but that won't be an issue this week as Missouri is incapable of stopping any team. The line has dropped a couple points in favor of Missouri, and I can only imagine that has to do with Auburn's offensive issues this season. But again, Missouri let Purdue run up and down the field on them last week, and I think Auburn can find some success.

Oklahoma State (-13) vs TCU

All I can say about my pick against OSU last week is – lesson learned. I don't want to put too much into one game, but man, the Cowboys looked really, really good. The interesting thing about the Cowboys is, they were supposed to be really good and they are simply living up to (or maybe slightly exceeding) expectations. The number here, against a solid TCU team is no joke, but OSU looks locked in, and I don't see the Horned Frogs keeping up with the Cowboys.

Last Week: 3-2; Season: 9-7