College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 9

CHRIS' PICKS

I've been treading water recently, and last week I finally sunk. After a couple weeks just on the right side of a winning week, last week's big slate proved too much for me to trim down, resulting in my first losing week in quite a while. Fingers crossed that isn't the start of a season-ending slide.

Wisconsin –26 at Illinois

It's certainly a big number to lay on the road, but the Illini continue to prove they are one of the nation's worst teams, failing to beat a Power 5 school while falling to Rutgers in the process (at home). They rank 108th against the run and allow 230.5 yards rushing per game in conference. Wisconsin has enough offensive balance to jump out early, and their depth at tailback should have them scoring by accident in the second half. The Badgers also boast the nation's sixth-ranked scoring defense, allowing only 13.3 points per game, further pushing them to an easy cover.

Florida +14 vs. Georgia

This pick goes against everything I think I know, because I believe the Bulldogs are a very, very good team, and I have absolutely no idea how the Gators will score against Georgia's fourth-ranked defense (12.6 ppg). But this is just one of those rivalries that always seems to have crazy moments, and they usually work in the Gators' favor. ESPN's results only went back to 2002, and in that span, Florida's largest defeat at the hands of Georgia was 42-30 in 2007. If we trust Wikipedia, the Gators have won 21 of the last 27 meetings, and it's been 20 years since Georgia won by more than Saturday's line. The Bulldogs' average margin of victory in their six wins is nine. History is clearly on the Gators' side, and you can argue this will be the best defense Georgia has faced. While the Bulldogs want to run, and Florida has been gashed by Michigan and LSU, they still allow only 3.92 yards per carry with four rushing touchdowns. This pick has the opportunity to make me look incredibly smart, or incredibly dumb. They don't call this gambling (for entertainment) for nothing.

Washington –17 vs. UCLA

My theme this week is, apparently, teams returning from a bye week after suffering surprising losses. I have no clue what happened to the Huskies' offense two weeks ago at Arizona State, but that dismal showing presumably led to some spirited practices in the aftermath. They've been dominant at home, outscoring opponents 149-30 in three games. Meanwhile, UCLA has been awful on the road, going winless against Memphis, Stanford and Arizona by an average of 14.7 points. The Bruins still have the worst run defense in the country despite "holding" Oregon to 246 yards last week. Washington has 17 rushing touchdowns, and I like Myles Gaskin to churn out yards and open some throwing lanes for Jake Browning to exploit for big plays.

Florida Atlantic –7.5 at Western Kentucky

I'm not putting much stock in the Hilltopper's 5-2 record, as they've beaten FCS Eastern Kentucky, Ball State, UTEP, Charlotte and Old Dominion, team's that are a combined 6-32. Further, their losses were to 2-5 Illinois and 3-4 Louisiana Tech. They've allowed 516 yards and six touchdowns on the ground in their last two games and figure to have trouble stopping Lane Kiffin's offense, which is functioning at a high level. FAU ranks ninth in rush offense, churning out an obscene 900 yards and 15 touchdowns the last two weeks. Kiffin's team has rushed for at least four scores in five consecutive outings and has won its last three games by an average of 28.7 points, a trend I expect to continue Saturday.

Clemson –14 vs. Georgia Tech

The Tigers have had more than a week off to lick their wounds after losing at Syracuse and prepare for the Jackets' triple-option attack. That time off has hopefully also allowed Kelly Bryant to get healthy, specifically his ankle as he seems to be clear of concussion issues and set to start Saturday night. Clemson is 4-1 in their last five against the Jackets, with all of their wins coming by at least 16 points. I'm a little cautious, as they've simply outscored Georgia Tech in those contests, only once holding them below 24 points, and to that point, the over at 49 looks solid. But at home, at night, I like the Tigers to win comfortably.

Last week: 2-4 ; Season: 23-21-1

GREG'S PICKS

It was a long, hard, eight weeks, but I finally broke out of the 2-3/3-2 funk, and I did so on the proper side. Oddly enough, the only game I lost was the Gophers, though after consecutive losses with them, maybe it's no so odd. For the week, I finally managed four wins, all fairly easy covers. PSU let Michigan hang around for a bit, but pulled away rather quickly. TCU took its sweet time getting above the number, but once it was covering, there was little doubt the Horned Frogs would hold on. UCLA went back and forth with Oregon but pulled away in the end, and Washington State shut out Colorado. The aforementioned loss, the Gophers, was almost a win as they scored a late pick-six, but quickly gave it back via the prevent defense. Considering they were covering for all of a minute or two, I'm not too disappointed with that outcome.



Boston College +4 vs. Florida State


After yet another loss, things are starting to get really tense in Tallahassee, and, to be honest, my first instinct was to side with Florida State, simply because the Noles have to be saying, "enough is enough." Then it occurred to me, wouldn't that moment have already happened? Perhaps after their third loss of the season, against the Canes – at home? Maybe, just maybe, this version of the Noles simply doesn't have that switch that can be turned on when times get tough. Maybe they weren't that good to begin with, even with Deonrde Francois. We'll never know how good they could have been, but we do know they have one heck of a test in front of them. BC has really turned it around this season, and although the Eagles have dropped four games this season, Clemson, Notre Dame and Virginia Tech are responsible for three of those losses. The Eagles realize the opportunity that they have, and they won't miss out on beating a vulnerable Seminoles squad.


Maryland +4 vs. Indiana



It's one thing to be the plucky underdog at home and give better teams fits, but it's an entirely different thing to go on the road, in conference, as a favorite and cover. The Hoosiers have proven they can play the teams from Michigan tight, but that doesn't really tell us much about how much they've improve, if they have improved, that is. The fact remains that the Hoosiers have exactly one win against an FBS team this season, and that came seven weeks ago. Maryland has not looked good since defeating the Gophers four weeks ago, but a lot of that has to do with its opponents. With an easier test in front of them, I expect the Terps to look like the team that won in Minnesota and not the team we've seen the last three weeks. 



Iowa -7.5 vs. Minnesota

After consecutive losses with the Gophers, I'm obviously not as locked in as I was a few weeks ago, but I still have a good feeling for this specific game. For starters, the results from both of these teams work perfectly for the Iowa side as the Gophers won, even though they didn't play well, and Iowa lost a game it probably should have won. The Gophers are a mess and a one-score win against Illinois only goes to prove that point. Illinois is below the bottom tier of the Big Ten, the Illini are far and away the worst team in that conference, and Minnesota struggled the entire game to get any separation. Most of that had to do with the lack of any passing game, something that will certainly kill the Gophers this week. Iowa looks better that its record would indicate, but for some reason, the Hawkeyes just can't close like it should. That changes this week as Iowa plays well and gets the results to go with it.

TCU -6.5 at Iowa State



Iowa State's turn around has been one of the better stories this season, and although I like everything that the Cyclones are doing, I think they are in a tough spot this week. The Cyclones caught everyone's attention with a shocking win at Oklahoma and backed it up with a win at Texas Tech, but I dare say this will be their toughest test of the season. The reason being, the expectations have risen, oh, and TCU is pretty darn good. There were no expectations when they went to Norman and no one expected a win in Lubbock either, but back at home, many are giving the Cyclones a fighting chance this week, and that in itself could be an issue. It's easy to play the "us against the world" card, but when the world is suddenly on your side, that chip fades away and that chip is one reason they got to where they are. TCU, meanwhile, just keeps on meeting every challenge and the Horned Frogs will meet this one as well.

Penn State +6.5 at Ohio State

This game worries me from a Penn State perspective because the Buckeyes have all the intangibles in their favor. First, this game is at the Horseshoe, which is a huge advantage, but one that can be overcome, see Week 2 of the season. Second, OSU is coming off a bye while Penn State is coming off a huge win, which as we know in college football can sometimes be an issue. That said, Penn State is the better team, it is the more complete team. Its offense is more potent and its defense is stouter. Ohio State looked weak against Oklahoma, but as it often does, it has covered up that loss by beating up on the soft under belly of the Big Ten. Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, there's nothing soft about this Penn State team. My hope is that Penn State wins this game and eliminates Ohio State from further playoff conversation, but even if it doesn't win, it should still cover.


Last Week: 4-1; Season: 23-18