This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Week 6 Betting Roundup
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The Texas Longhorns lost to their Big-12 rival Oklahoma Sooners in a spectacular game by four points and had taken the lead with just over 1-minute left in regulation. The win is monumental for Oklahoma as they went from being ranked No. 12 prior to the win to now ranked No. 5 in the current AP poll. Texas dropped six posts and now ranks No. 9, but the loss does not hurt their chances to make the College Football Playoffs as it is quite likely that they will face Oklahoma again in the Big-12 Championship game, and with a win in that game and just one loss on their resume would be a near-certain committee selection.
Underdogs were a modest win overall in week 6, going 15-37 straight-up (SU), 26-23-3 against-the-spread (ATS), and a solid 26-25-1 Over record. For the season, underdogs have produced a 71-355 SU record for 17% upset wins, a 204-208-14 ATS record for 50 percent, and a 219-202-5 Over record for 52 percent. So, the market overall has priced the dogs quite well this season.
The big dogs have always been a target for potential betting opportunities and are the teams to invest your money again this season. Road underdogs of 17.5 or more points have gone just 5-149 for 3.2% upset wins but have produced a money-making 84-66-4 ATS mark for 56% winning bets. Moreover, slicing the data a bit more reveals the fact that road dogs of 17.5 or more points in a game with a posted total between 50 and 56 points have gone a solid 35-19-2 ATS for 65% winning bets this season.
The dog for Week 7 is Syracuse Orange +17.5 vs. Florida State
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College Football Betting Algorithm
The following betting algorithm has earned a highly profitable 18-6-1 ATS record for 75% winning bets spanning the last 10 seasons. The requirements are:
1. Bet on any team in a conference matchup.
2. Both teams have won 80% or more of their games on the season.
3. The foe has beaten the spread by 49 or more points over their previous five games.
Taking a deeper look into the database, we discover a subset that has gone 10-3 SU and a highly profitable 11-2 ATS for 85% winning bets over the past 10 seasons if our team is a home favorite. This betting algorithm targets the Washington Huskies, favored by three points, as a strong betting opportunity when they host the Oregon Ducks on Saturday.
College Football Expert Best Bet for Week 7: USC +2.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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No. 10 USC Trojans vs. No. 21 Notre Dame Irish
Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, Indiana
Notre Dame -2.5 | Total: 60 points
7:30 PM EST | NBC/Peacock
This game is a matchup of ranked teams, with USC taking to the road with a 6-0 SU record to take on a desperate Notre Dame squad with two losses on the season. USC is 2-4 ATS and 5-1 Over for the season. The Irish are 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS, including a 4-3 Under result on the season. USC has lost to the spread and seen the Over win the money in each of their last three games. Notre Dame has lost two of their last three games in a most difficult schedule and covered the spread in just one. Notre Dame lost 17-14 hosting Ohio State, then took to the road and won a tough-fought game 21-14 at Duke, and then another road game losing at Louisville by the final score of 33-20. The Irish team is experiencing a fatigue problem on both sides of the ball but regardless will have to be fully prepared if they have hopes of upsetting USC and their reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Caleb Williams.
From the Predictive Model
Supporting USC is the following betting system that has produced a 23-24 SU record and 25-12 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:
1. Bet on a road team priced between the 4's.
2. That road team is coming off a game in which they and their foe scored 31 or more points in their previous game.
3. The game is a non-conference matchup.
